The strongest home team meets the strongest away team

Top match on La Liga’s matchday 31: On Sunday evening, league leaders Real Madrid host third-placed Sevilla FC at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. A hot game awaits us in Andalusia, with the home side needing the points more urgently than the visitors from the capital.

For Real are sitting comfortably and lonely at the top of the table, twelve points ahead of their equal opponents Barcelona and Sevilla. Even a defeat at the Sanchez Pizjuan is unlikely to cause any real tension in the championship race. For Sevilla, there is much more at stake in the fight for the Champions League, as the Sevillanos have only a four-point lead over city rivals Real Betis, who are lurking in 5th place.

It may still come as a surprise to some that there are such high odds on the home win ahead of Sevilla vs Real Madrid.

Sevilla – Statistics & current form

If you bet on Sevilla to win at home against Real Madrid, you will receive odds of 3.00. This is the top odds currently offered by the betting provider Unibet. Such high odds on Sevilla are quite surprising, because: The Andalusians are the strongest team in La Liga at home. With 37 points, Sevilla have collected just as many points at home as Real Madrid, but they have one home game less on their record – and are the only team that is still unbeaten at home.

What’s more, Sevilla concede the fewest goals of all first division teams at home (only 13 goals conceded in 15 home games)  – and also generally have the best defence in La Liga (22 goals conceded in 31 games). These are remarkable numbers that show how difficult the Andalusians are to crack, generally this season and especially in their own stadium.

Concrete defence: Sevilla enormously difficult to crack

The only team Sevilla have been able to crack – i.e. beat – recently was FC Barcelona. Of the last 16 league games, the Sevillanos have only lost at Barça (0:1). However, Julen Lopetegui’s team is not rushing from victory to victory, rather the opposite. Sevilla have been finding it extremely difficult to win. Seven of their last eleven league games ended in draws.

Only Cadiz (13) share the points more often than Sevilla (twelve draws). So there are a few reasons to consider betting on a draw in the top match between Sevilla and Real Madrid.

Predicted Sevilla line-up:
Bono – Navas, Koundé, Carlos, Acuña – Jordan, Rakitic, Corona – Ocampos, Mir, Gomez

Last matches played by Sevilla:

La Liga
09/04/2022 – Sevilla FC 4 – 2 Granada

04/04/2022 – FC Barcelona 1 – 0 FC Sevilla

21/03/2022 – Sevilla FC 0 – 0 Real Sociedad

Europa League Final Stage
18/03/2022 – West Ham 2 – 0 Sevilla FC

La Liga
13/03/2022 – Rayo Vallecano 1 – 1 Sevilla FC

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

Real Madrid would certainly sign a draw in advance, after all, they would at least maintain their lead over Sevilla – and would not have lost in probably La Liga’s most uncomfortable stadium.

However, the Madrilenians’ self-image is of course to win this match against a top team. That did not happen during the week, when they lost 3-2 after extra time to Chelsea in the Champions League, but the result was enough for Real to reach the semi-finals of the top flight. A fact that will surely inspire the Blancos ahead of the tough trip to the Sanchez Pizjuan.

Real Madrid the slight favourites against Sevilla at the betting shops

And they have already shown this season that they can hold their own and even win against top opponents away from home – most recently in the first leg of the quarter-final at Chelsea FC, when they triumphed 3:1. This probably also explains why Real are slight favourites going into the game, as the betting odds show for Sevilla vs Real Madrid.

An average of 2.50 is offered on a Real victory, which is also interesting. After all, the Blancos won both of their last two guest games in Sevilla with 1:0. Similar to Sevilla, only FC Barcelona managed a win against Real Madrid in La Liga in recent months. That is the only blot on the Blancos’ otherwise blank slate, who have won six of their last seven league games – and in between conceded the thumping 4-0 defeat to Barça.

Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois – Carvajal, Militao, Alaba, Nacho – Valverde, Modric, Kroos – Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius Jr.

Last matches played by Real Madrid:

Champions League Final
13/04/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 3 Chelsea FC

La Liga
10/04/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Getafe

Champions League Final
07/04/2022 – Chelsea FC 1 – 3 Real Madrid

La Liga
02/04/2022 – Celta Vigo 1 – 2 Real Madrid

21/03/2022 – Real Madrid 0 – 4 FC Barcelona

Sevilla – Real Madrid Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Looking at the direct comparison and especially the last duels underlines a bit why Real go into the game as slight favourites. Real have won seven of their last ten matches and are unbeaten in six games against Sevilla – quite a remarkable series for this top duel.

Real narrowly won the “first leg” at the Bernabeu 2-1 – and quite happily too, as Vinicius Junior scored the winner out of nothing in the 87th minute with a stroke of genius in a match that was strongly on course for a draw.

Sevilla – Real Madrid Tip

A win in Sevilla and Real Madrid will put the final exclamation mark on the title fight that the Blancos are the designated new Spanish champions in Spain. It will not be an easy task, however, as it would be the Andalusians’ first home defeat of the season.

Whoever is so strong at home and defensively, could also withstand the best away team in the league. It should also be taken into account that Real had to play an energy-sapping 120 minutes against Chelsea during the week, while Sevilla were able to prepare for this top match in peace all week.

As the best home team meets the best away team, Sevilla are extremely difficult to break down and have collected a lot of draws lately, we believe in a logical division of points in this top match. We are therefore predicting a draw in the match between Sevilla and Real Madrid