Will Sevilla eliminate the top favorite?
In the first leg a week ago, everything initially looked like it would go the expected way. Manchester United were 2-0 up thanks to a double strike from Marcel Sabitzer and actually had everything under control. But after conceding two late goals, the English record champions ultimately had to settle for a sobering 2-2 draw at home to Sevilla, which leaves everything open for Thursday’s second leg.
The record holders of this competition from Andalusia now hold all the aces in their own stadium and with a home win could ensure that the hottest favorites are knocked out of the quarterfinals.
If we look at the odds for the overall victory in the Europa League before the match between Sevilla and Manchester United, Erik ten Hag’s team is still considered the most promising candidate for the title. Even ahead of the “old lady” from Turin, who, as is well known, won their first leg against Sporting Lisbon 1-0.
Sevilla – statistics & current form
Strictly speaking, Sevilla Club de Fútbol still has a chance to bring the bottom-line messed-up 2022/23 season to a conciliatory end. Only in the event of winning the Europa League title would those responsible speak of a pleasing season in retrospect. Incidentally, it would be the seventh triumph in this competition or its predecessor, the UEFA Cup. All six trophies have been won in the last 16 years.
In view of this outstanding record in the second most important club competition at European level and the existing aura of the southern Spaniards at this level of soccer, it is definitely associated with a certain risk to place a bet on the away victory after regular playing time between Sevilla and Manchester United.
Sevilla simply don’t lose home games in the Europa League
By the way, this is also supported by the fact that the Red and Whites have not lost a home game against non-Spanish opponents in the Europa League since 2010/11 and a 2-1 defeat to FC Porto. In a total of 37 games, there have been 30 wins, five draws and two defeats against La Liga teams (Betis/Bilbao). Eight unbeaten home knockout games in a row, four consecutive wins and three clean sheets in a row underline the brutal home strength of the Andalusians in this competition.
Looking at their current form, it is also clear why we are giving up odds for the away treble on the three-way market ahead of the Sevilla vs Manchester United clash. Under new coach Jose Luis Mendilibar, who succeeded Jorge Sampaoli in mid-March, the Rojiblancos are yet to go unbeaten in four competitive games, scoring exactly two goals in all four matches.
Does Sevilla’s approach remain more defensive?
Among other things, they also managed to win the dress rehearsal 2-0 in Valencia at the weekend, which allowed them to celebrate a huge step towards staying in the class. Despite the decent condition, it will be the preferred approach of the home side to stand as long as possible stable at the back and not concede a goal.
With three of the four knockout games against Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven having seen a maximum of two goals scored, and the Nervionenses going without conceding on both occasions at home, it’s definitely worth considering another prediction of a maximum of two goals after 90 minutes between Sevilla and Manchester United.
Last matches of Sevilla:
La Liga
- 17/04/2023 – Valencia 0 – 2 Sevilla FC
Europa League Final Stage
- 14/04/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 2 Sevilla FC
La Liga
- 08/04/2023 – Sevilla FC 2 – 2 Celta Vigo
- 01/04/2023 – Cadiz 0 – 2 Sevilla FC
- 20/03/2023 – Getafe 2 – 0 Sevilla FC
Manchester United – Statistics & current form
Sometimes it’s the craziest stories that soccer writes. After a dominant first half, I don’t think anyone would have given a damn that Sevilla would come back from 2-0 down to draw at Old Trafford. After the substitution of Harry Maguire, however, the match tilted in the Andalusian direction. However, to pin the Spanish side’s comeback solely on United’s viral superstar would be wrong, despite his own goal. Nonetheless, Maguire was once again the media’s pick of the litter.
Regardless, ahead of the Sevilla vs. Manchester United second leg, betting odds continue to give the English the better chance of reaching the semifinals.
Will the United offense cut its teeth?
In fact, in seven of the 13 times United drew the first leg at home in the European Cup, they were eliminated. Furthermore, the Red Devils have also found it more difficult away than at home in the competition so far. Only the away match at FC Sheriff was won with a two-goal difference.
Moreover, in three of United’s said five away games in the 2022/23 Europa League season, a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through, including the away games at Real Sociedad (1-0) and Betis Sevilla (1-0). We do not rule out a similar result for Thursday night either. Meanwhile, in the Premier League, no ten Hag team has scored more than two goals in any of their last five matches. Fittingly, in the last eight encounters at league level, the bet would have always been “Do they both score? No” would have paid off. Further arguments for a Sevilla vs Manchester United prediction on sub-par goals are thus given.
Finally, it should be mentioned that the currently third in the Premier League, who landed a relatively lackluster 2-0 win at Nottingham at the weekend and will already fight for a place in the FA Cup semifinals against Brighton next Sunday, will still have to do without some players. With Bruno Fernandes one of the most important offensive players is missing suspended. Marcus Rashford will probably be on the bench as a wild card at most. We therefore do not expect a goal festival.
Last games of Manchester United:
Premier League
- 16/04/2023 – Nottingham Forest 0 – 2 Manchester United
Europa League Final Stage
- 14/04/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 2 Sevilla FC
Premier League
- 08/04/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 0 Everton
- 06/04/2023 – Manchester United 1 – 0 Brentford
- 02/04/2023 – Newcastle 2 – 0 Manchester United
Sevilla – Manchester United Direct comparison / H2H balance
Even after four direct duels between these teams, Manchester United is still waiting for a win. While two clashes, including the first leg a week ago, ended in draws, Sevilla also managed to win twice. However, never before has one team scored three or more goals in 90 minutes against the other.
It is also exciting to note that Sevilla have won only one of their last five home games against Man Utd in the Europa League. The English record holders, meanwhile, are unbeaten in six must-win games against La Liga clubs.
Sevilla – Manchester United tip
Sevilla FC and Manchester United are the last two remaining clubs to meet in the quarterfinals of the UEFA Europa League, having won the competition once before. The first leg a week ago at the Theater of Dreams ended in a 2-2 draw. If you want to bet that there will be no winner in the second leg after regular time and extra time and that it will go to a penalty shootout, you can get attractive odds of 6.50 between Sevilla and Manchester United.
However, our preferred approach is to bet on a relatively low-scoring 90 minutes. The Andalusians need to come through their defense and not make it a “wild” game. United, meanwhile, could struggle in the absence of Fernandes and the ailing Rashford, especially since they have struggled away from home on several occasions this season. In both EL matches in Spain, one goal was enough to win the game.
We also take the successes at Real Sociedad and Betis Sevilla as an opportunity to place a bet on the under 2.5 between Sevilla and Manchester United. The top odds of 2.10 turn out far too high in our eyes, so we choose five units as a stake and definitely see value.
Alternatively, a combined bet on the X2 & Under 3.5 is conceivable, because despite the home strength of the Andalusians and the impressive successes in the history of this competition, the English were for long stretches in the first leg tone-setting and dominant. The 2:2 final result should not hide that fact.
