Will Sevilla finally break free in the derby?

With only four points out of a possible 15, Sevilla FC are still stuck in the bottom of the table. The Nervionenses, however, took all four points from their last two games, in each of which they managed to keep a clean sheet. The Andalusian derby will show whether the reigning Europa League winners are really out of the woods again. In the case of Sevilla against Almeria, betting on a home victory for the Sevillistas is basically under a good star.

It should be noted, however, that the Nervionenses continue to have little forward momentum. In just one of their last 13 competitive games, Sevilla scored more than one goal per game (in the 4-3 defeat at Deportivo Alaves). Most recently, the Sevillistas remained goalless again (0:0) at Osasuna. Accordingly, the forecast for Sevilla against Almeria is that this Andalusian derby will not be overly high-scoring.

In principle, the bet on a home win for the Nervionenses is perfectly playable. However, due to the extremely low prices offered by the best bookmakers, there is no value in tip 1 given that Sevilla FC have only won one of their seven competitive matches in the young 2023/24 season (three draws, three defeats).

UD Almeria have not won any of their six La Liga games (two draws, four defeats). However, the Almeriensistas have always scored in their last five games and recently held Valencia to a respectable 2-2 draw. At the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, we expect the current bottom team to be much more defensive. In conjunction with the Nervionenses’ recent lacklustre offensive performance, betting on less than 2.5 goals makes the most sense.

Sevilla – Statistics & current form

Sevilla FC already stumbled mightily in La Liga in the 2022/23 season, which ultimately ended in a completely sobering eleventh place under coach José Luis Mendilibar, who was hired in March this year.

The bottom line, however, was that the season’s goals were nevertheless achieved. The Nervionenses once again won their showpiece competition, the Europa League, and entered the UEFA Champions League after all by winning the second most important European competition for club teams (a record) for the seventh time overall.

New season, old problems?

As we head into the new season, however, the old problems seem to persist. In La Liga, the start of the season could hardly have been worse. At the start, Sevilla lost all three league games with a total of 5:8 goals and even held the red lantern for a while.

However, a 1-0 home win over Las Palmas brought about a turnaround. Under returning coach Sergio Ramos, the Nervionenses also scored again last week in the Champions League (1-1 against RC Lens) and in La Liga (0-0 at Osasuna) to remain unbeaten in three competitive games (one win, two draws).

Won only one of their seven competitive matches in 2023/24

Positive is certainly that there was only one goal conceded in these three competitive matches. Far more critical, however, is the aspect that the Sevillistas also scored only two goals of their own in these three competitive matches. Against this background, our bet on a low-scoring Andalusian duel makes a lot of sense for Sevilla against Almeria.

It is true that the record Europa League winners have always scored in eleven of their last 13 competitive matches. However, in twelve of these 13 games, the maximum number of goals was only one, which was too few time and again. In 2023/24 alone, Sevilla have won just one of seven competitive matches (three draws, three defeats).

Predicted Sevilla line-up:

Sevilla CF (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1

Almeria – Statistics & current form

Unión Deportiva Almeria has only officially existed since 1989 and was bought for the club’s 30th anniversary by a Saudi Arabian sheikh, whose millions were to be used to gradually catch up with top Spanish football.

In fact, the squad was practically replaced once, after which La Unión returned to the country’s top division as La Liga 2 champions in the summer of 2022 after a seven-year absence. However, it was only by the skin of their teeth that they managed to stay in the league after finishing 17th in the final table.

Despite new coach and squad still winless after six matchdays

Now Vicente Moreno is expected to manoeuvre the club from the Spanish Mediterranean bay into calmer waters, but this has not yet worked out despite more than 50 million euros being invested in transfer fees for new players.

After six games in La Liga, the Almeriensistas are still winless (four draws, two defeats) and thus hold the red lantern. The odds on the Indálicos to win away to Sevilla against Almeria are therefore not the best on the part of the betting providers either.

Having conceded 13 goals from six games in La Liga

At least offensively, the Andalusians have not had to hide so far. The seven goals from six league games are of course far from the best value, but in the traditionally not overly goal-rich La Liga, they are still above average.

Only defensively must Vicente Moreno finally bring more stability back into his team. With 13 goals conceded in six games, La Unión have the second-weakest defence in Spain’s top division. Success at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán can only be achieved by tightening the screws on the defensive side of the Nervionenses, who are not overly dangerous offensively.

Predicted line-up of Almeria:

Almeria (Expected line-up) 5-4-1

Sevilla – Almeria Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 11 – 0 – 4

The Andalusian clash between Sevilla FC and UD Almeria has only taken place 15 times so far, and with eleven victories, the Nervionenses are the clear leaders in the direct comparison. Not a single meeting between the two teams has ended in a draw. Last season, the home team won both La Liga matches 2:1.

Sevilla – Almeria Tip

The betting odds on Sevilla against Almeria are heavily in favour of the home side, who have not only won just one of their seven competitive games in the 2023/24 season (three draws, three defeats), but have also scored more than one goal of their own in just one of their last 13 competitive games this season. So betting on a home win for the Europa League record winners is certainly not a no-brainer.

The fact that the Sevillistas have picked up four points from a possible six in La Liga recently, despite only scoring one goal, was also due to the fact that they managed to keep a clean sheet in both games. Against this backdrop, the prediction that Sevilla will score a maximum of two goals against Almeria in the Andalusian clash is very coherent