Who will get important points in the fight to stay in the league?

On Sunday, Sevilla FC will host the team from UD Almeria. At first glance, this does not sound like a relegation thriller, but that is exactly the case. While the guests were predicted to have a difficult season before the season, the host’s deep fall was not to be expected. The home side even played in the group stage of the Champions League and are in the last 16 of the Europa League. Qualitatively, the home team therefore has a clear advantage and this is also reflected in the betting odds between Sevilla and Almeria.

Sevilla FC are 18th in the home table, having picked up just 15 points from twelve home games. Jorge Sampaoli’s side have only won four games at the Ramón Sanchez Pizjuan, while losing five.

After starting 2023 on a positive note, Sevilla are now falling back into old patterns. Currently, the hosts have lost three matches in a row, continuing the negative trend from the first half of the season. The double burden of the Europa League is not helping either.

UD Almeria are bottom of the away table, picking up just three points from eleven away games. Coach Rubi’s side have yet to win a single game away from home and will therefore face major problems against Sevilla FC.

The form of the last few weeks is difficult to describe, as the visitors won against FC Barcelona, picked up a point against Atletico Madrid and still lost five of their nine games in 2023. For this reason, the odds are also clearly against an away win between Sevilla and Almeria.

Due to the double-header, we see a lot of value in a goal bet in this duel. Sevilla are favoured at home but only had to play Fenerbahce in the Europa League on Thursday. This could be the chance for the underdog, but the away record does not exactly favour a win. However, we trust the guests to score a goal and therefore we recommend the tip “both teams score – yes” between Sevilla and Almeria.

Sevilla – Statistics & current form

Sevilla FC are currently 17th in La Liga and thus playing a more than disappointing season. Jorge Sampaoli’s side have picked up just 25 points from 24 games. Currently, the hosts are only outside the relegation zone due to their goal difference. It is hard to explain the deep fall, because last season the Red and Whites still qualified for the Champions League. A win against one of their direct rivals in the fight to stay in the relegation zone is therefore an absolute must.

One of the weakest defenses in the league

The hosts have conceded 39 goals this season, making for one of the weakest defences in La Liga. Elche and Almeria are the only two clubs with even more goals conceded. Sevilla have only managed to keep a clean sheet once in the league.

Things look a bit better on the offensive side, as the home side is ahead of seven other teams in the league-wide comparison. Nevertheless, 27 goals in 24 games is not a particularly good value, so that the current position in the table is only logical.

Loan deal ended

In the summer, Lucas Ocampos was desperate to force a move to Ajax Amsterdam and, for the time being, he succeeded. For a loan fee of four million euros, Sevilla let the midfielder go. After less than four months and only 119 minutes of play, the loan was ended prematurely.

His market value dropped from €25 million to €17 million in that short time, so this transfer was an absolute disaster for all three parties. Whether he can still be helpful to Sevilla FC in the current season remains to be seen.

The striker from Morocco

He is one of the important bright spots in Jorge Sampaoli’s team and thus also one of the hopefuls in the fight to stay in the league. We are talking about Moroccan striker Youssef En-Nesyri, who has already scored twelve goals this season.

His career began when he was scouted by Malaga for the U19s at the age of 18. In Spain he also signed his first professional contract. His path then led to Sevilla FC via CD Leganes, where he reached the pinnacle of his career in 2021 when he won the Europa League.

Last games of Sevilla:

Europa League Final Stage
10/03/2023 – Sevilla FC 2 – 0 Fenerbahçe

La Liga
05/03/2023 – Atletico Madrid 6 – 1 Sevilla FC

27/02/2023 – Sevilla FC 2 – 3 Osasuna Pamplona

Europa League Final Stage
24/02/2023 – PSV Eindhoven 2 – 0 FC Sevilla

La Liga
19/02/2023 – Rayo Vallecano 1 – 1 FC Sevilla

Almeria – Statistics & current form

UD Almeria are one place behind Sevilla FC in 18th place in Spain’s top flight. Coach Rubi’s team also picked up 25 points from 24 games and is thus only in the red zone due to the worse goal difference. The promoted team was already one of the favourites for relegation before the season and it will be very difficult for them to stay in the league. From a squad point of view, Almeria is much weaker than, for example, Valencia or Sevilla, who are also playing against relegation.

The second weakest defence in La Liga

The visitors have conceded 42 goals in 24 games this season, making them the weakest defensive side in the league apart from FC Elche. On average, the team of the Spanish coach Rubi concedes 1.75 goals per game.

The offensive is not able to compensate for the lack of stability, because with 28 goals, Almeria is also one of the weaker teams in the league. Especially away from home, the team struggles to put the ball in the opponent’s goal.

The summer newcomer in the attack

On 01/09/2022, El Bilal Toure signed his contract at UD Almeria, giving his old employers Stade Reims a cash injection of eight million euros. The Mali international scored six goals and set up two others in the current season.

This enabled the visitors’ top scorer to increase his market value from 6.5 million euros to ten million euros. He is one of the few bright spots in the team and would probably be gone in the event of relegation. A buyer should not be hard to find, because with his two-footedness he is difficult to defend.

Totally overpriced

Largie Ramazani is one of the most valuable players at UD Almeria with a market value of nine million euros. However, the left winger has only scored three goals this season and has only been in the starting eleven twelve times. There is certainly still a lot of room for improvement.

And the pre-season was by no means outstanding either, as he only collected nine scorer points in 30 games in the second Spanish league. Nevertheless, he made his debut in Belgium’s U21s in the summer and is probably a little overrated for that reason.

Last games of Almeria:

La Liga
04/03/2023 – Almeria 0 – 2 FC Villarreal

27/02/2023 – Almeria 1 – 0 FC Barcelona

18/02/2023 – Girona 6 – 2 Almeria

11/02/2023 – Almeria 2 – 3 Real Betis

07/02/2023 – Rayo Vallecano 2 – 0 Almeria

Sevilla – Almeria Direct comparison / H2H balance

The direct comparison between the two teams goes to the hosts. Sevilla have won ten matches, while Almeria have only won four. There has never been a draw between these two clubs, and that is something of a rarity. The last meeting took place in the first half of the season and was won 2-1 by UD Almeria. However, we think it is unlikely that the promoted team will win again and therefore our prediction between Sevilla and Almeria goes in the direction of the home team.

Sevilla – Almeria Tip

We play the double chance Sevilla tip combined with under 3.5 goals between Sevilla and Almeria. The hosts have lost only five of twelve games and have much more quality in their squad. The visitors have yet to win a game away from home and therefore we think a win in Sevilla is unlikely. As the home side had a tough game against Fenerbahce Istanbul on Thursday, we expect a defensive-oriented match and accordingly few goals. In the fight to stay in the league, both teams will try to be compact and risk little.

The poor away record of Almeria leads us to take the odds for a home win between Sevilla and Almeria. It’s the perfect opportunity for the hosts to make a break for it, and with their own fans behind them too.