Will Werder shoot S04 into the valley of tears?

SV Werder Bremen is currently tipping the scales in the relegation battle in the Bundesliga. After the men from the Weser were able to pull off a 4-2 win at Hertha last weekend, Werner’s eleven is now up against the next club in danger. In the meantime, the Green-Whites themselves have rid themselves of all relegation worries, so that they can go into the final spurt free.

In the run-up to the Schalke vs. Werder Bremen match, at least one forecast seems certain: unlike a week ago in Berlin, no 20,000 Bremen supporters will make the trip to Gelsenkirchen this time. However, this is not because of the fans, but solely because the ticket contingent for the supporters at the Veltins Arena is not that high.

The Knappen can keep the home advantage in this important home game, but whether the three points will stay in the Ruhrpott seems more questionable than ever after the recent performance in the previous week at SC Freiburg.

After all, the fact that the Reis eleven also managed to win the last home game gives hope. The fact that betting on the host’s success between Schalke and Werder Bremen nevertheless entails plenty of risk is due not least to the miserable record against the North Germans in the recent past. Only one of the last eleven direct duels against the SV Werder could decide the Royal Blues for themselves.

Schalke – statistics & current form

Lothar Matthäus is currently on everyone’s lips as the chief critic of FC Bayern. The ex-professional and TV pundit is currently not only hitting out at his former employer from Munich, but also at FC Schalke 04. In his opinion, the Knappen will again have to retreat to the 2nd Bundesliga in 2022/23.

The argumentation refers on the one hand to the faded mood of departure after the embarrassing performance last week in Freiburg (0:4) and on the other hand to the complicated remaining program, which among other things still holds games against Bayern, Mainz or RB Leipzig. Against this backdrop, the penultimate home game of the current season on Saturday evening against Werder Bremen already has a quasi pre-decisive character.

Will the fans in the arena get to see a spectacle again?

If the odds on a home win in the Schalke vs. Werder Bremen duel do not come true, this would reduce the probability of staying in the league to a minimum. The Knappen are already three points off the relegation zone. The relegation place is only one point away, but the worse goal difference compared to VfB Stuttgart or Hertha is an additional headache.

Given this starting position, two scenarios are now conceivable. Either the Königsblauen cling to the proverbial last straw with a courageous performance or the team collapses under the enormous pressure, which will also be felt in the stands. We rather believe in the latter script and would therefore not be averse to eyeing the odds on DNB 2 between Schalke and Werder Bremen.

Alternatively, it would also be worth considering betting on a high-scoring match. 17 goals were scored in the last four home games. Always a bet on the over 2.5 would have paid off. Moreover, no other club in the German top flight conceded more goals at home than S04. In the event of a deficit, the Ruhrpott aces, who after all have not lost any of their most recent three Saturday night games in the Bundesliga, will have to take a risk anyway, which also argues for goals, goals, goals.

Last games of Schalke:

Bundesliga

• 23/04/2023 – SC Freiburg 4 – 0 Schalke 04
• 15/04/2023 – Schalke 04 5 – 2 Hertha BSC
• 10/04/2023 – Hoffenheim 2 – 0 Schalke 04
• 01/04/2023 – Schalke 04 0 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
• 18/03/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Schalke 04

Werder Bremen – statistics & current form

Totally relaxed SV Werder Bremen can look forward to the remaining five matchdays in the first year of play after the re-promotion. The 4-2 win at Hertha Berlin the previous week not only moved the Green-Whites up to twelfth place in the standings, but also extended their lead over 16th place to ten points. Since the introduction of the three-point rule, a club has never squandered such a cushion at this point in the season.

At the Weser, this means that planning for the coming season can already begin. The focus is naturally on the two “ugly birds” Niclas Füllkrug and Marvin Ducksch. While the national striker is openly considering offers from other clubs and has recently been linked with Borussia Monchengladbach, his congenial partner has an exit clause in the single-digit millions. Head coach Ole Werner is therefore threatened with the loss of the two most important offensive players.

Füllkrug and Ducksch on farewell tour?

That the attacking duo will also play a co-decisive role on Saturday night seems obvious. Füllkrug has not scored more often against any other team in his professional career than against S04. In addition, “Lücke” managed the only BL hat trick in September 2020, also in Gelsenkirchen.

Ducksch, meanwhile, leads the scoring charts for the second half of the season. He scored three of the eight goals in the previous week against the Old Lady. For another goal by Ducksch in the matchday 30 between Schalke and Werder Bremen, appealing odds of 3.20 are offered in the Bet365 app.

In general, we trust the kickers from the Weser to get a good result at Schalke. The men from the Osterdeich have won all of their last six matches at the Veltins Arena. Eight of the past eleven encounters have also been victorious. Only the defense, which hasn’t really looked stable lately, is driving worry lines across the coach’s forehead. Seven consecutive Bundesliga games with at least two goals conceded, however, serve as a further indication of a match with three or more goals in the course of play.

Last matches played by Werder Bremen:

Bundesliga

• 22/04/2023 – Hertha BSC 2 – 4 Werder Bremen
• 16/04/2023 – Werder Bremen 1 – 2 SC Freiburg
• 08/04/2023 – Mainz 05 2 – 2 Werder Bremen
• 02/04/2023 – Werder Bremen 1 – 2 Hoffenheim
• 18/03/2023 – Gladbach 2 – 2 Werder Bremen

Schalke – Werder Bremen Direct comparison / H2H balance

Since matchday four of the 2017/18 Bundesliga season, Schalke 04 has failed to defeat Werder Bremen in the top flight. Looking back at the past eleven cross-competition clashes, the Green-Whites stand at eight wins, two draws and only a single defeat. Among other things, the Knappen also lost the most recent six competitive match duels against the SVW in front of a home crowd.

On balance, the men from the Weser have not celebrated more victories against any other club in professional soccer than against Königsblau. One of the 49 victories came in the first half of the season, when Füllkrug and Ducksch both scored off Weiser’s cross to give the team a 2-0 lead. Drexler’s follow-up goal merely served to cosmetic the result.

Schalke – Werder Bremen tip

Five matchdays before the end of the season, FC Schalke 04 once again has its back to the wall. Currently, the Knappen are in second last place and have the most difficult remaining program in front of them. And since the team is only allowed to play twice more in front of its own fans, Saturday night’s home game against SV Werder has the feel of a final.

However, we deliberately refrain from playing the betting odds on a home win between Schalke and Werder Bremen. True, two weeks ago S04 was able to defeat Hertha 5:2 in their own stadium. However, in the grand scheme of things, it was the only treble in the review of the past six matches. To make matters worse, the pressure situation could further inhibit the host club this weekend.

We therefore try it before the encounter Schalke vs. Werder Bremen with the tip on Over 2.5 goals and justify this approach primarily with the fact that the guests behind Bayern and Dortmund have put on paper the third most away goals in the Bundesliga. The Gelsenkircheners also provide the most vulnerable home offense; 17 goals in the most recent four home games with S04 involvement provide additional evidence of a certain penchant for high-scoring matches.

With a view to the course of the game, it should also be noted that the home side will have to throw everything forward in the event of a deficit. A defeat would be the worst case scenario. A draw is also too little.