Will Red Star punch their ticket to the next round?
In Group F, there is still one team that is unbeaten on the road after three matchdays. Red Star Belgrade lead the standings with seven points out of a possible nine and already have the chance to punch their ticket to the next round on Thursday.
Ahead of the match between Red Star Belgrade and Midtjylland, the odds ensure that the home side are quite pronounced favourites. The implied probability of victory is currently 52%. If we consider a home win to be even more likely, there is a corresponding value to be found. The individual factors that have to be taken into account in a final assessment are examined in more detail below.
First and foremost, it should not be neglected that the Serbian champions are traditionally a real home power and have not lost a single home match at Marakana this season. The Red and Whites also drew 1-1 in Jutland, Denmark, a fortnight ago, so it would not come as a surprise if the Group F leaders record their third win at the fourth attempt on Thursday night.
Red Star Belgrade – Statistics & current form
Since the European second division no longer goes by the name UEFA Cup but Europa League, reaching the intermediate round (sixteen-finals) was the maximum of emotions for Red Star Belgrade. However, the 2018 and 2019 Champions League participants are preparing to make a deep run in the said competition this season. After three completed matchdays in the group stage, things are looking pretty good for the Serbian title holders.
After two narrow wins at home against Braga (2-1) and at Ludogorez Rasgrad (1-0) to start the campaign, the Eastern Europeans had to settle for a 1-1 draw against Midtjylland in Herning, Denmark, a fortnight ago. Nevertheless, the point earned helped them defend their top spot in Group A and further improve their starting position in the race to progress to the next round.
Home strength as a decisive fist
If the home win bet pays off in next Thursday’s second leg between Red Star Belgrade and Midtjylland, the next round would already be assured. One of the factors in favour of coach Dejan Stankovic’s team is the fact that they have won nine of their eleven home games in the current season. In the aforementioned matches in front of their own fans, they conceded only four goals, which is why the Red and Whites must of course be attested a pronounced home strength.
After the Serbs have only played two home games in the league and on the international stage since the beginning of October, the anticipation for the game against Midtjylland is even greater. In our eyes, it is therefore absolutely justified to make a prediction on the hosts in the duel between Red Star Belgrade and Midtjylland.
Especially because, with the exception of the injured Nikolic, all players are available and Stankovic’s team has already proven in the group stage that they take the Europa League very seriously and are rightly at the top in terms of quality.
Predicted line-up of Red Star Belgrade:
Borjan; Gobeljic, Dragovic, Degenek, Rodic; Srnic, Sanogo; Falco, Kaku, Ivanic; Ben
Last matches played by Red Star Belgrade:
1st Division
10/31 2021 – FK Radnicki 1923 0 – 3 Red Star Belgrade
10/27 2021 – FK Radnik Surdulica 2 – 1 Red Star Belgrade
10/24 2021 – Red Star Belgrade 1 – 0 Radnicki Nis
Europa League Grp. F
10/21 2021 – FC Midtjylland 1 – 1 Red Star Belgrade
1st Division
10/16 2021 – Kolubara 1 – 7 Red Star Belgrade
Midtjylland – Statistics & current form
For the scouts of the European top nations, FC Midtjylland in the north of the continent is one of the most important ports of call. Players such as Alexander Sorloth, Simon Kjaer or the former Bundesliga professional Mohamed Zidan once took their first important steps in Herning, Denmark, before flocking to the football world. The reigning vice-champion also currently has one or two promising talents in its squad.
Examples include the 22-year-old Jens Cajuste and Isaksen, who is only 20. The former is said to be on the shopping list of several Premier League clubs. Isaksen, too, has demonstrably attracted the interest of several Bundesliga clubs. The youngsters would like to prove themselves further on the international stage, but coach Bo Henriksen’s team currently has its back against the wall.
Midtjylland a welcome guest in European Cup
While the two home games against Crena Zvezda and Ludogorez Rasgrad ended in a 1-1 draw, the away game in Braga ended in a 3-1 defeat. Two points from three games is not a particularly good return, especially when you consider that two of the three remaining matches are away from home. The Scandinavians have their problems away from home anyway…
Since the summer of 2018, they have only won two out of twelve matches in the European Cup. Most of them, however, were defeats. At national level, five of seven games were won this season, but only eleven goals were scored, while almost twice as many goals were scored at home in the same number of games. Given these figures, it is understandable why the odds are in favour of the hosts in the clash between Red Star Belgrade and Midtjylland.
Predicted line-up of Midtjylland:
Olafsson; Dalsgaard, Sviatchenko, Paulinho; Andersson, Cajuste, Onyedika, Dyhr; Evander; Isaksen, Sisto
Last matches played by Midtjylland:
Superleague
10/31 2021 – Randers FC 1 – 3 FC Midtjylland
Danish Cup
10/28 2021 – FC Midtjylland 3 – 1 Aalborg BK
Superleague
10/24 2021 – FC Midtjylland 3 – 2 SönderjyskE
Europa League Grp. F
10/21 2021 – FC Midtjylland 1 – 1 Red Star Belgrade
Superleague
10/17 2021 – FC Nordsjälland 2 – 2 FC Midtjylland
Red Star Belgrade – Midtjylland Direct comparison / H2H record
The first leg a week ago was the first and so far only meeting between the two teams at European level. The visitors’ 1-0 lead through Mirko Ivanic lasted only until the 78th minute, however, before Nikolas Dhyr scored the not undeserved 1-1 equaliser. While it was the first meeting with a Serbian opponent for the Danes, the Red and Whites from Eastern Europe remained unbeaten against a club from Denmark at their seventh attempt (two wins, five draws).
Red Star Belgrade – Midtjylland Tip
In Group F, a preliminary decision could already be made on Thursday evening. If the home win between Red Star Belgrade and Midtjylland proves to be correct and Sporting Braga win against Ludogorez Rasgrad in the parallel match, the two teams promoted to the next round would already be determined after four match days.
We think at least the first scenario is quite likely, as the home power from the Serbian capital will meet a Danish guest who has not achieved particularly good results away from home in the recent past. Henriksen’s side also lost their only game away from home in the current EL group stage 3-1 in Braga
We therefore choose between Red Star Belgrade and Midtjylland for the home win. We play this at Bet-at-Home at odds of 1.88 with a stake of six units.
