Can Crvena Zvezda get closer to the knockout stage?
As the only team in Group F of the Europa League, Ludogorets Razgrad are still winless after four matchdays. The Bulgarian champions have only managed to pick up one point out of a possible twelve. If Midtjylland win their parallel match at home against Braga, any result other than an away win would put them firmly in last place.
The visitors will have to bounce back, as the third-placed team in the group will still be able to play in the intermediate round of the Conference League. However, in the run-up to the match between Red Star Belgrade and Ludogorets Rasgrad, the odds are clearly in favour of the Serbian home side.
Although Crvena Zvezda are considered to be very strong at home, the Serbs already lost their last home match against Midtjylland with 0:1, when Marko Gobeljic and Milos Degenek, two important defenders, were sent off and will now miss the match due to suspension. Against this backdrop, the home match against the Bulgarians is unlikely to be a foregone conclusion.
Accordingly, we find much more value than in the win bet on Red Star Belgrade against Ludogorets Rasgrad in the bet that a maximum of two goals will be scored.
Red Star Belgrade – Statistics & current form
Red Star Belgrade won the European Champion Clubs’ Cup in 1991 and is one of the top clubs in Eastern Europe with 31 national championships and 25 cup victories in Yugoslavia and Serbia.
The “Crveno-beli” are also in good form at the moment. This summer, the Serbs celebrated their fourth championship in a row, and in the second year of coach Dejan Stankovic’s tenure, they even managed to secure their first double since 2006/07.
Winning the group on their own is still possible
Although Crvena Zvezda failed to qualify for the Champions League in the 2021/22 season, at least nothing else burned against CFR Cluj in the Europa League play-offs.
With seven points out of a possible twelve, the Crveno-beli currently occupy second place in Group F and can even achieve group victory and a direct ticket to the last 16 on their own merits. It was only on the fourth matchday that they suffered a minor setback in the aforementioned 1-0 home defeat against Midtjylland with a double deficit.
Internationally a home power
The recent record is nevertheless right. Of the last ten international home games, only this one encounter was lost (six wins, three draws), in which Milos Degenek was already sent off in the eleventh minute. He is missing today, as is Marko Gobeljic, which is definitely a small weakening for the Crveno-beli.
Nevertheless, the bookmakers see the reigning champions from Serbia, who celebrated a successful dress rehearsal on Sunday with a 5:1 victory at Mladost Lucani, clearly in the role of favourites.
Predicted line-up of Red Star Belgrade:
Borjan – Rodic – Pankov – Dragovic – Bakayoko – Sanogo – Kanga – Ivanic – Katai – El Fardou Ben – Pavkov
Last matches played by Red Star Belgrade:
1st Division
11/21 2021 – Mladost Lucani 1 – 5 Red Star Belgrade
11/07 2021 – Vojvodina 1 – 2 Red Star Belgrade
Europa League Grp. F
11/04 2021 – Red Star Belgrade 0 – 1 FC Midtjylland
1st Division
10/31 2021 – FK Radnicki 1923 0 – 3 Red Star Belgrade
10/27 2021 – FK Radnik Surdulica 2 – 1 Red Star Belgrade
Ludogorets Razgrad – Statistics & current form
Ludogorets Rasgrad may have only been founded in 2001, but since Kiril Domuschiev joined the club for the 2010/11 season, they have quickly become Bulgaria’s absolute flagship.
Since the first national championship in the 2011/12 season, there has been no other champion in the Bulgarian Efbet League. This summer, the “Eagles” celebrated their tenth title in a row.
On the weekend with 0:2 defeat at ZSKA Sofia
At the moment, it doesn’t look like a changing of the guard in the efbet league either. Although the north-eastern Bulgarians lost their clash with rivals ZSKA Sofia 2-0 on Sunday, the Eagles still have a four-point lead over the capital.
Accordingly, Stanislav Genchev’s team can focus on the Europa League, where their chances of surviving the winter are very slim. With only one point out of a possible twelve, they are already four points off third place.
Since 16 games in the Europa League without a win
If the Bulgarians want to keep their minimal chance of second place alive, or at least keep their eyes on third place, which would take them into the intermediate round of the Conference League, Genchev’s team needs a three-point win in Serbia.
In view of the fact that the Eagles have now gone 16 games in a row without a win in the Europa League, betting on Red Star Belgrade against Ludogorets Rasgrad, of all teams, to end this drought at home to the Serbians is not too popular.
Predicted line-up of Ludogorets Rasgrad:
Kahlina – Cicinho – Verdon – Plastun – Ikoko – Show – Goncalves – Tchibota – Yankov – Despodov – Sotiriou
Last matches played by Ludogorets Razgrad:
First Professional League
11/21 2021 – CSKA 1948 2 – 0 PFK Ludogorez Razgrad
11/07 2021 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 1 – 0 PFK Lokomotive Plovdiv
Europa League Grp. F
11/04 2021 – Braga 4 – 2 PFK Ludogorez Rasgrad
First Professional League
10/31 2021 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 2 – 0 PFC Beroe Stara Zagora
Cup
10/28 2021 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 3 – 1 FK Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Red Star Belgrade – Ludogorets Razgrad Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 1 – 1 – 1
The two teams have faced each other three times so far. The Bulgarians prevailed in extra time in the third qualifying round of the 2016/17 Champions League after two games that ended 2-2, while the Serbs took revenge with a 1-0 away win in the first leg of the Europa League group stage.
Red Star Belgrade – Ludogorets Razgrad Tip
On the one hand, the prediction for Red Star Belgrade against Ludogorets Rasgrad has to take into account the home strength of the Serbs, who have only lost one of their last ten European home games when they had to play 80 minutes in a shorthanded game. On the other hand, however, the Bulgarians’ drought, who have not won in 16 games in the Europa League, also plays a role.
Much speaks in favour of the Belgrade side, who, however, have to do without two suspended defenders and must not go through the wall with their heads against their opponents, who need an away win to avoid an early exit. Accordingly, we expect two teams that will initially focus on defensive stability.
Accordingly, we recommend betting on a maximum of two goals, especially since only one goal was scored in the first leg of Crveno-beli’s 1-0 away win.
