Are the Serbs grabbing their last chance?
A somewhat surprising table picture is emerging in Group H of the UEFA Europa League at the moment. Contrary to expectations, Ferencvaros have moved to the top after two matchdays. The Hungarian champions have won both matches so far and now, with another success in Belgrade, already have the chance to push the door wide open towards the knockout rounds.
The “Fradi” will face massive opposition in this endeavour, however, as their opponents from the Serbian capital have definitely sold themselves short so far. If Crvena zvezda want to keep their hopes of progress alive, they will definitely need a home win at the Marakana Stadium on Thursday evening. Odds of 1.95 are being offered on the three-way market for such a result in the clash between Red Star Belgrade and Ferencvaros.
Because the Hungarians would certainly not be dissatisfied with a point in the cauldron of Belgrade and could thus maintain their position at the top of the table, we expect a tough football match. The hosts, who have not yet found their way one hundred percent into this season, lack the means to break down a stable defence. That’s why it might be a good idea to make a prediction in advance of the match between Red Star Belgrade and Ferencvaros that there will be few goals scored in the course of the game.
Red Star Belgrade – Statistics & current form
Although we are only at the beginning of October, Red Star Belgrade can already report an extremely turbulent season. After the Serbian champions surprisingly lost to Maccabi Haifa in the Champions League group stage play-offs at the end of August, club icon Dejan Stankovic resigned as coach in charge. Milos Milojevic, a former Stankovic assistant who most recently worked as head coach in Sweden, was introduced as his successor.
However, Milojevic, who is only 30 years old, won only one of his first four games as head coach. Recently, however, the team has stabilised. Four of the last five matches were won. All the successes, however, were achieved at national level. Internationally, Crvena zvezda returned from Turkey without any points. The Serbians deservedly lost 2-1 at Trabzon and only managed to score a goal one minute before the final whistle.
Red Star is slowly finding its feet
Because the Red and Whites also lost their first group match 1-0 at home to Monaco, the men from Belgrade’s Dedinje district are already under pressure. If no prediction of a home win between Red Star Belgrade and Ferencvaros comes true on Thursday evening, the train towards the sixteen-finals would have virtually sailed.
Nevertheless, we do not believe that the Serbs will take unpredictable risks and play forward from the start. It is more likely that the new coach’s approach is not to neglect the rest of the defence from a controlled offensive and to land the lucky punch as the game progresses.
In any case, we are of the opinion that the reigning national champions do not necessarily have the level to create a series of chances against a compactly defending opponent. This is also supported by the fact that in six of the nine games under coach Milojevic, the team scored no more than one goal. In five cases, a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through, which is why we can well imagine that in the duel between Red Star Belgrade and Ferencvaros, the bet on a maximum of two goals after 90 minutes will pay off.
Predicted line-up of Red Star Belgrade:
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Last matches of Red Star Belgrade:
1st Division
02/10/2022 – FK Mladost Novi Sad 0 – 4 Red Star Belgrade
18/09/2022 – Red Star Belgrade 1 – 0 Napredak
Europa League Grp. H
15/09/2022 – Trabzonspor 2 – 1 Red Star Belgrade
1st Division
11/09/2022 – Novi Pazar 1 – 2 Red Star Belgrade
Europa League Grp. H
09/09/2022 – Red Star Belgrade 0 – 1 AS Monaco
Ferencvaros – Statistics & current form
Ferencvaros actually also had the goal of qualifying for the Champions League group stage in the summer. However, the Hungarian champions were defeated by Qarabag Agdam in the third round and then even had to enter the EL play-offs, which they mastered quite confidently against Shamrock Rovers. After a 4:0 home win, even a 0:1 defeat in Ireland was enough to punch the ticket for the main competition of the Europa League.
It was all the more surprising, however, how positive the start to the group stage was. The “Fradi”, as the club from near Budapest likes to be called, first won the home match against Trabzonspor 3:2 in overtime and finally also took all three points from Monaco (1:0) before the international break. With six points, coach Stanislav Cherchesov’s side are top of Group H and – as things stand – have the best chance of progressing to the next round as the most glaring underdogs in this four-team constellation.
Win points and defend top spot in Belgrade
Because the road to the knockout phase is still long, we believe that the Green-Whites could well live with a point in the form of a draw in Serbia on Thursday evening. We therefore expect a rather cautious guest, who in any case relies a lot on switching play with their fast top players.
The disappointing dress rehearsal at the weekend, which was lost 2-0 at Kecskeméti, underlines the fact that the Hungarians find it easier to play against teams that are in the game or are generally better known and are also under pressure than when they have to make the game themselves. However, it was the first defeat in the seventh league match. Five of the previous six victories at national level have come with a clean sheet, so the Cherchesov team can be said to have a certain defensive strength. They will need that to take something tangible away from Marakana.
Predicted line-up of Ferencvaros:
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Last matches of Ferencvaros:
NB I
02/10/2022 – Kecskemeti TE 2 – 0 Ferencvaros
Europa League Grp. H
15/09/2022 – AS Monaco 0 – 1 Ferencvaros
NB I
11/09/2022 – Ferencvaros 3 – 0 Kisvarda
Europa League Grp. H
09/09/2022 – Ferencvaros 3 – 2 Trabzonspor
NB I
04/09/2022 – Ujpest 0 – 6 Ferencvaros
Red Star Belgrade – Ferencvaros Direct comparison / H2H record
For the only two direct duels between these clubs, we had to search long in the history books. In 1974/75 the clubs once met in the semi-finals of the European Cup Winners’ Cup. Ferencvaros came close in both legs, but ultimately missed out on the title after losing 3-0 to Dynamo Kiev in the final. Of course, this historical observation has no relevance for the upcoming duel.
Red Star Belgrade – Ferencvaros Tip
The Group H leaders face the bottom team on Thursday evening from 18:45. Although a team with a maximum of six points will meet an opponent who has yet to score in two games, the betting odds between Red Star Belgrade and Ferencvaros favour the bottom team. The 1.95 on the home win, however, does not have a particularly high value in our eyes.
In any case, we choose a different approach for this match: We speculate that the guests from Hungary would already be satisfied with a point and will therefore act from a compact defensive position. Crvena zvezda have problems with exactly that. In six of their nine competitive matches under the new coach, the Serbs have managed no more than one goal of their own.
In our eyes, it is therefore advisable to bet on the under 2.5 between Red Star Belgrade and Ferencvaros.
