Will Inter shatter Salzburg’s dream of reaching the round of 16?

In Group D of this year’s UEFA Champions League preliminary round, all the relevant decisions regarding the round of 16 could be made on matchday four. There are currently many indications that Inter Milan and Real Sociedad will make it through to the last 16. Both teams have seven points to their name and could secure their tickets for next year’s knockout round ahead of time if they win again on Wednesday evening. The Inzaghi eleven travel to Wals-Siezenheim during the week

While the current Serie A leaders struggled to a narrow 2:1 win against the Austrian season ticket holders at home two weeks ago, the starting position for the second leg should play even more into the hands of Lautaro Martinez and Co. If the Bulls somehow want to keep their chances of reaching the round of 16 alive, a three-pointer for the home side between RB Salzburg and Inter Milan will have to come true. Even a draw would put a place in Europe’s most important club competition a long way off

Given that coach Gerhard Struber is relying on a very young team that does not yet have the international experience of last year’s finalists from Lombardy, the Red & Whites are once again in danger of paying the price on Wednesday evening. We therefore dare to predict that the Austrian underdogs will have to be careful to find a good mix of risk and compactness in the Red Bull Salzburg v Inter Milan duel, especially in the first 45 minutes. On the other hand, the savvy Italians could take control of the match before the break

Red Bull Salzburg – Statistics & current form

Since last weekend, the standings in the Austrian Bundesliga have been right and proper again from RB Salzburg’s point of view. Because Struber’s side won two league matches in a row and previous league leaders Sturm Graz lost twice in a row, the serial champions from Wals-Siezenheim have climbed back to the top of the table. However, there is not much left of the dominance of days gone by following various departures in the summer and short-term changes on the coaching bench.

While the form curve at national level is pointing upwards, the opposite is true in the Champions League. After a surprising opening win at Benfica Lisbon, in which Salzburg benefited from an early red card from the Portuguese side, they recently suffered two consecutive defeats. This leaves them third in Group D with three points. The Red & Whites are another four points off the top two places, meaning they are under pressure in their penultimate home game of this preliminary round and really need to win to regain their place at the top of the table

Will the young RB squad once again lack concentration in the opening stages?

The fact that the youngest starting eleven of all 32 CL participants on average tends not to find the right balance between a bold attack and a stable defense was already evident in the only home game to date against Real Sociedad, when RB fell 2-0 behind after less than 30 minutes of play due to two well-played switching actions and ultimately left the pitch as losers with this result. In the 2-1 defeat in Milan two weeks ago, the Austrians were also behind at the break. This is one of the reasons why we have taken a closer look at the odds for the Italians to lead at half-time between Red Bull Salzburg and Inter Milan.

Should the expected defeat be inflicted on Wednesday evening, coach Gerhard Struber, who has at least seen an improvement in many aspects of his performance in the league recently, would set an old negative record. The last time the Austrian dominators suffered three successive European Cup defeats was in 2020 under Jesse Marsch. They also face the threat of three consecutive home defeats for the first time in their own CL history.

Oscar Gloukh, who at the age of 19 has been one of the biggest discoveries of this CL season so far, is one of the players tasked with preventing that. The Israeli is only the third Salzburg player under 20 to have scored two or more goals in international competition in a single season. The select circle is completed by Karim Adeyemi and Erling Haaland, two absolute world stars, in whose footsteps Gloukh is naturally keen to follow.

Predicted Red Bull Salzburg line-up:

Inter Milan – Statistics & current form

Inter Milan and the UEFA Champions League have developed an intimate love affair since the summer of 2022. Last year, the Italians somewhat surprisingly reached the final, but narrowly lost 1-0 to Manchester City. Looking back at the past ten matches in the top flight, however, this was also the only defeat that coach Simone Inzaghi’s team had to contend with (six wins, three draws). Since March 2022, FC Bayern and the aforementioned Sky Blues are the only two teams to have beaten the “Nerazzurri” in international competition.

It therefore goes without saying that last year’s finalists should also be included in the extended circle of title contenders for the current CL season and can be backed up by even more detailed statistics. In fact, FC Barcelona and Manchester City were the only two teams with a higher xG value than Inter Milan in the first three matchdays. Compared to the two aforementioned clubs, however, the Italians had a far more complicated program to complete. In particular, the quality of the chances created by the Lombards is impressive, with an xG value of 0.15 per shot on goal

Inter aim to remain unbeaten in their eighth competitive match in a row

Another positive aspect is that they have not lost any of their last four away games in the top flight this season and could now remain unbeaten in five consecutive away CL matches for the first time since 2005. The great form that Lautaro Martinez and Co. are showing in Serie A also speaks for this. They have picked up 13 points from their last five games. At the weekend, they won the tough match at Atalanta Bergamo 2:1. Inzaghi’s team has the best offense, the best defense and leads the Italian standings by two points over Juventus.

The main reason for this is the aforementioned Lautaro Martinez, who already has twelve goals for the season and leads the Serie A scoring charts. Olivier Giroud in second place has scored half as many goals as the Argentinian, who is also a real life insurance for the title contenders in the Champions League – especially away from home! Martinez has scored eight of his eleven CL goals away from home

Predicted Inter Milan line-up:

Red Bull Salzburg – Inter Milan head-to-head comparison / H2H result

Counting two recent friendlies (2022 & 2023), there have been five meetings between these two clubs so far. Inter Milan have won all five encounters. Four of them by exactly one goal. In three out of five cases, the Italians were already leading at half-time.

This was also the case in the most recent head-to-head two weeks ago, when the “Nerazzurri” simply turned out to be the cleverer team. Even the interim equalizer did not throw Inter off their stride; instead, Calhanoglu converted a penalty to win 2:1. Wednesday’s match between RB Salzburg and Inter Milan also looks promising in terms of an away win

Red Bull Salzburg – Inter Milan betting tip

While many groups in the Champions League are still extremely exciting and close, the two round of 16 finalists in Group D could be decided as early as late Wednesday evening. If Real Sociedad prevail against Benfica Lisbon and Inter Milan win their away game at RB Salzburg, the Basques and the Lombards will be in the top two with two matchdays to go.

However, while we have our doubts about a home win in San Sebastian, we would immediately back the visiting team in the Red Bull Salzburg v Inter Milan clash. Inzaghi’s side are currently in very good form, have not lost any of their last seven competitive games and have only lost one of their last ten matches in the top flight. In terms of quality, the Black & Blues are also stronger, so we tend to favor a win

We see even more value in the betting odds for Lautaro Martinez and Co. to be ahead after 45 minutes between RB Salzburg and Inter Milan. The Austrians’ young starting eleven, which will probably be under 23 years old on average, will make too many individual mistakes and will have problems playing for victory given their starting position.