Do the Bulls underline home strength?

Wednesday night’s early Champions League fixture is all about a world-renowned fizzy drink. Although it is not a direct duel in the RB empire, both teams are already in action in front of their home crowd at 18:45. In the city of Mozart, it will be a championship duel between Red Bull Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb.

With Chelsea and AC Milan being two of the top teams in Group E, it could be assumed after the draw that this clash would be decisive in the fight for the Europa League ticket, i.e. third place. But the first two games showed that the situation in this group is by no means as clear-cut as initially assumed. Salzburg drew twice, Dinamo Zagreb were responsible for Tuchel’s exit at Chelsea. This victory, however, was in front of a home crowd, while Dinamo Zagreb are clearly weaker away from home.

Dinamo Zagreb’s poor stats away from the Maksimir Stadium, combined with RB’s two notable performances, mean that between Red Bull Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb, betting odds of around 1.70 are offered by bookmakers on the Austrian champions to win.

Red Bull Salzburg – Statistics & current form

The dress rehearsal before the important home match against Croatian champions Dinamo Zagreb almost went wrong. Seconds before the end, centre-back Omar Solet was able to score the equaliser against LASK to make it 1-1. A lucky point gain due to the late timing of the goal, but disappointing considering the performance shown. For the first time in the Matthias Jaissle era, Salzburg remained without a full win in two league home games in a row. Just like in the points’ draw against SK Rapid Wien, Salzburg conceded a cheap goal after a throw-in.

The lack of efficiency in front of the opponent’s goal was also conspicuous. Once again, Salzburg had countless top chances, but missed some of them negligently. Regardless of this, Salzburg are still the measure of all things in the Austrian Bundesliga and lead the table after ten of 22 games in the basic round.

Since five CL home games without defeat

Salzburg have certainly been in better form, yet they are understandable favourites against the Croatian champions on Wednesday night. The two performances in this CL season have once again made an impression. A deserved point win at Stamford Bridge was by no means to be expected. Moreover, Salzburg was much closer to victory in the home match against Italian champions AC Milan. The home match against the Rossoneri was already the fifth CL home match in a row for Salzburg which was not lost (three wins, two draws).

If they also manage to win a point on Wednesday, Salzburg will have set an Austrian record. Never before has an Austrian team scored in six CL home matches in a row. Swiss Noah Okafor, who has scored both goals so far, will once again act as the hopeful. He could become only the third RBS player to score in three consecutive games (Haaland and Mergim Berisha).

In contrast to the games on the domestic stage, however, Salzburg have been far less dominant internationally so far. Only once in the first two games did Salzburg manage a ball attack with more than ten passes. In comparison, Real Madrid have managed 47 such sequences in two games. Against Dinamo Zagreb, however, Salzburg will (have to) act much more dominantly, because a home win is almost obligatory in the fight for an international place in the winter. Due to the Croatians’ weakness away from home, this prediction is quite obvious between Red Bull Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb.

Matthias Jaissle will still have to do without Brazilian newcomer Fernando and youngster Dijon Kameri, who will not be available for some time.

Predicted line-up of Red Bull Salzburg:
Köhn – Ulmer, Wöber, Solet, Dedic – Capaldo, Gourna-Douath, Seiwald – Sucic – Okafor, Sesko

Last matches played by Red Bull Salzburg:

Bundesliga
01/10/2022 – RB Salzburg 1 – 1 LASK

18/09/2022 – RB Salzburg 1 – 1 Rapid Wien

Champions League Grp. E
15/09/2022 – Chelsea FC 1 – 1 RB Salzburg

Bundesliga
10/09/2022 – Ried 0 – 3 RB Salzburg

Champions League Grp. E
07/09/2022 – RB Salzburg 1 – 1 AC Milan

Dinamo Zagreb – Statistics & current form

Dinamo Zagreb’s away weakness has already been mentioned, as it is by no means to be dismissed. The last time the Croats won away in the UEFA Champions League, most of the players were not even born. For that success, you have to flip back to the last century, in November 1998, a win at Ajax Amsterdam. Since then, the Croats have tried 19 times away from home and only managed a draw three times in those games.

Since September 1999 (goalless draw at Manchester United), Dinamo Zagreb have also conceded at least one goal in every away match. In 18 games, Dinamo Zagreb have conceded a total of 52 goals, giving them an average of 2.9 goals conceded per game. Away matches of the Croatians are therefore a guarantee for high-scoring games. Since the Bulls are also showing some weaknesses in their defence at the moment, a bet on a game with a lot of goals between Red Bull Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb is an interesting option.

Total dominance in the domestic championship

The away record is troubling Dinamo Zagreb, but the Cacic eleven will not lack confidence at all. The Croatian serial champions can already chill the championship champagne again this season. Eleven matchdays have been played in the HNL league and Dinamo already have a comfortable eleven-point lead over the first “chaser”. Only the 1-1 draw against Varazdin on matchday four left the team with nothing to show for its efforts, while the remaining ten games were all won.

46 goals (goal ratio 34:12) are another argument for a game with many goals. The twelve goals conceded also prove some problems in Dinamo Zagreb’s defence, as despite total dominance in the championship, they conceded more than one goal per match on average. The top scorer is Mislav Orsic, who is also in impressive form internationally. The left winger has scored in each of the last five international matches for Dinamo Zagreb.

Predicted Dinamo Zagreb line-up:
Livakovic – Ljubicic, Peric, Sutalo, Ristovski – Ivanusec, Misic, Ademi – Orsic, Drmic, Spikic

Last matches played by Dinamo Zagreb:

1st League
02/10/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 4 – 1 Slaven

18/09/2022 – NK Lokomotiva 1 – 2 Dinamo Zagreb

Champions League Grp. E
14/09/2022 – AC Milan 3 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb

1st League
11/09/2022 – HNK Gorica 0 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb

Champions League Grp. E
06/09/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 1 – 0 FC Chelsea

Red Bull Salzburg – Dinamo Zagreb Direct comparison / H2H-balance

The two teams have faced each other a total of six times. In the 2009/10 and 2016/17 season both in the qualification for the UEFA Champions League, 2014/15 in the group stage of the UEFA Europa League. The first knockout encounter went to Salzburg, who also had the better end in the Europa League group stage with two wins. In the most recent encounter, however, it was the Croatians who rejoiced, snatching a last-second ticket to the top flight from Salzburg’s grasp.

Red Bull Salzburg – Dinamo Zagreb tip

Dinamo Zagreb’s opening win against Chelsea has changed the starting situation a little, but these two direct duels this week and next week will still be (pre-)decisive in the fight for progress. The duel can be summarised as “home strength meets away weakness” and therefore the odds for a home win between Red Bull Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb are also set accordingly low.

Given the Croatians’ away record, a home win is certainly likely, but even greater value can be found between Red Bull Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb when betting on the over 2.5. Although the two previous Salzburg games ended in a 1-1 draw, this time the Bullen will be able to do even more for the game. The guests from Zagreb are also a team that can be quite dangerous offensively, but defensively always reveals problems. Six units are therefore recommended for at least three goals in this duel