Fix the Bulls for the international winter?

After the fourth matchday, Group D had already been decided in terms of the two round of 16 finalists. Nevertheless, there is no shortage of excitement on the final group matchday, as the question of both the group winner and the Europa League participant will be decided in direct duels. Third place will be decided in Austria, more precisely in Wals Siezenheim. In the clash between Austrian champions Red Bull Salzburg and Benfica Lisbon, the lowest betting odds of 2.40 are offered on the visitors.

The Bulls can even allow themselves a defeat with a goal difference in front of their home crowd in order to still be able to celebrate in the end. On the fifth group matchday, Benfica Lisbon let a 3-0 lead slip, while Salzburg fought back to secure a goalless draw at Real Sociedad de San Sebastian. The home side now have a three-point lead over Benfica Lisbon and also won the first leg 2-0. To ensure that the international adventure of the much higher-ranked Schmidt team does not come to an abrupt end, the prediction for a handicap victory in Red Bull Salzburg vs. Benfica Lisbon must be correct

The parallel match for the group win will take place on Tuesday at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium. Last year’s finalists Inter Milan need a home win against the Basques from San Sebastian to jump to first place.

Red Bull Salzburg – statistics & current form

Despite the opening win in the top flight, it was clear early on that the Champions League adventure would be over in the fall. Reaching the round of 16, as in the previous year, is the crowning glory, while the real goal is to make it through the winter at international level. In this respect, Gerhard Struber’s team has the best chance of achieving this goal. If this is achieved, the outcome in autumn 2023 will be positive despite another upheaval. Leaders in the league and still represented in the cup – so the chance of another double is still alive

Three CL home defeats in a row

But will playing in front of a home crowd really be an advantage? The Bulls were unbeaten at national level for well over a year, but conceded both league defeats in Wals Siezenheim this fall. They also fared much better away from home at international level, with Salzburg picking up four points on foreign soil. Salzburg have lost their last three CL home games this season. The Bulls are only the third Austrian team (Sturm Graz 1998/99 and Rapid Vienna 2005/06) to lose all three group games in front of a home crowd.

In the past, Salzburg have always stood for offensive spectacle and plenty of goals. The defense was significantly strengthened under Jaissle, but the German was dismissed shortly before the start of the season. Gerhard Struber is also considered a fan of attacking soccer, but his players have rarely been able to confirm this on the pitch. Salzburg have scored just one goal in their last four group games and have made extremely poor use of their chances. 54 shots have been taken and only three goals have been scored – the second-lowest rate behind AC Milan.

Salzburg have been stingy with goals in recent weeks, but have hardly conceded anything defensively either

Predicted line-up of Red Bull Salzburg:

Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form

The 30-year-old veteran Joao Mario scored a flawless hat-trick on matchday five to take his CL goal tally for the Red Eagles to nine. Only Oscar Cardoozo (eleven) has scored more often for the traditional Portuguese club. Despite these three goals and a comfortable 3:0 lead, Schmidt’s team had to settle for a 3:3 draw against Inter Milan. In addition, defensive boss Antonio Silva was sent off for the second time this CL season in the closing stages and will be missing against the Bulls.

Without a win in seven CL games this season

In the fall of 2022, the Portuguese team made for astonished faces by winning the group stage ahead of PSG and Juventus. Benfica impressed with spectacular attacking soccer. The Red Eagles were only defeated by Inter Milan in the quarter-finals, meaning that Schmidt’s side have not won in seven CL matches this season. If the tip on the visitors is not correct for Red Bull Salzburg v Benfica Lisbon on Tuesday, Benfica would set a new negative record (eight games between March 2017 and September 2018).

In addition, the traditional club is threatened with a group stage without a clean sheet for the third time in CL history. Schmidt’s soccer accepts the odd goal conceded, but there has been no stability in defense this season. Benfica have already conceded ten goals in this CL season and even have a statistical “expected goals against” value of 14.6, which is only slightly exceeded by Young Boys from Bern with 14.9.

The uncertainty can also be felt at national level at the moment. In the last five league games, Schmidt’s team have shared the points three times. However, teams such as Casa Pia, Moreirense FC and Farense are by no means among the top teams in the Portuguese league. The international experience and the name give the guests an advantage, but the bare numbers speak against a bet on Benfica Lisbon.

Expected line-up of Benfica Lisbon:

Red Bull Salzburg – Benfica Lisbon head-to-head comparison / H2H result

The first leg on matchday one was also the first meeting between the two teams, with the Austrian visitors surprisingly coming out on top against former coach Roger Schmidt. Although the Bulls missed a penalty in the third minute, the next penalty was awarded in the twelfth minute and Benfica Lisbon were shown a red card. Salzburg converted this time and went one better through the Israeli Gloukh. The 2:0 victory was Salzburg’s third win in five matches against a Portuguese team (one draw, one defeat). The Red Eagles from Lisbon will play their first competitive match in Austria since 1971 on Tuesday evening. Back then, a certain Eusebio scored (4:0 against Wacker Innsbruck)

Red Bull Salzburg – Benfica Lisbon betting tip

The Austrian serial champions have certainly offered more spectacle in recent years, but at the end of the day, soccer is a sport of results. Should they reach the international winter, there is little to criticize about autumn 2023 for the team from the city of Mozart. Given the starting position, we expect Salzburg to take a wait-and-see approach and use quick transitional play to score what could be the decisive goal

Sooner or later, however, the visitors will certainly have to take more risks, as they will need at least two goals to reach the Europa League after all. This quality is certainly there, but Schmidt’s side are currently a long way off their top form. Salzburg have also impressed in recent weeks with a very strong defense.

Seven out of eight games under 2.5 are no coincidence. In addition, the hosts can even afford a narrow 1-0 defeat, which is why we are predicting “Will both teams meet? No” with four units. Due to Benfica’s current form, we also see value in the bet “DNB 1” – a bet on the Schmidt team is currently too risky. The RB Salzburg vs. Benfica Lisbon betting odds are extremely interesting