The next home defeat for the Mozartstadt team?
The outgoing serial champion Red Bull Salzburg has not only completely disappointed at the national level so far, but also has only three out of a possible 21 points in the first league phase of the Champions League. This means that the Mozart city team has already been eliminated, while the guests from Spain could still use points for a top eight finish if they don’t want to rely on help from other teams. So, with Red Bull Salzburg playing Atlético Madrid, we are backing Tip 2.
The Colchoneros also won their only previous game in Salzburg’s Red Bull Arenas 2-0 and are currently on a streak of two consecutive Champions League away wins. Added to this is the strong performance with which Germany’s double winners Bayer Leverkusen were defeated 2-1 last week. The prediction that the Rojiblancos will not let anything slip on the final matchday of the league phase of the premier class is correspondingly consistent at Red Bull Salzburg against Atlético Madrid.
Not only does the “head to head” comparison, the table of the league phase and the current form all speak in favor of Atlético Madrid. The Colchoneros are also fully in rhythm because the winter break in Spain was once again limited to just under two weeks. Red Bull Salzburg, on the other hand, have not played a competitive game at national level since mid-December and only just recovered from a 5-1 defeat at Real Madrid last Wednesday.
Red Bull Salzburg – Statistics & current form
Red Bull Salzburg had to let SK Sturm Graz take the lead again in the championship question for the first time since 2014 after ten consecutive championships between 2014 and 2023. The Red Bulls actually wanted to be in the running for the title again when the new season started, but they finished as runners-up last season. However, the reality is different.
After 16 match days, the Mozarstädter are currently only in fifth place in the Bundesliga table. They are already ten points behind first place. The season in the Champions League has also been similarly disappointing so far.
Is Red Bull Salzburg setting an inglorious record?
The Austrians only managed three out of a possible 21 points in the first phase of the premier league, meaning that elimination in the preliminary round can no longer be averted. In particular, their home record was disastrous. Red Bull Salzburg have lost all three home games of the 2024/25 season without scoring a goal.
In total, they have now lost seven consecutive Champions League home games. The Red Bulls could now become the first club in the competition to suffer eight home defeats in a row.
Red Bull Salzburg’s performance has been weak in all areas
There is really not much to suggest that Thomas Letsch’s team will pick up a point against Atlético Madrid, who already saw his team lose 5-1 in his competitive debut at Real Madrid last week.
In addition to the lack of offensive punch – in five of their seven Champions League games, the Mozarstädter did not score a goal – defensive stability is also an annoying issue. The 23 goals against are only topped by Slovan Bratislava (24).
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
In view of their previous results, however, the Colchoneros definitely have to be on the radar. In addition to a 2-1 away win against Paris Saint-Germain, the Rojiblancos just last week recorded a 2-1 home win against Bayer Leverkusen.
With 15 out of 21 possible points, the team from the Spanish capital are currently ranked fifth in the table and, with a two-point lead over ninth place, now have an excellent chance of making the top eight and thus qualifying directly for the round of 16.
Will Atlético Madrid extend their recent away streak?
Diego Simeone’s team have been doing remarkably well recently, especially away from home. In addition to the 2-1 win in Paris, they also recorded a 6-0 victory over Sparta Prague. This means that for the first time since 1974, the Colchoneros could win three consecutive away games in the competition.
They also won their only previous game at the Red Bull Arena 2-0, which is why the odds are against Red Bull Salzburg against Atlético Madrid. According to the ODDSET app, odds of just 1.38 are on the record for Tip 2, which is why it makes even more sense to set the small handicap for the Rojiblancos.
Atlético Madrid and late goals
Given Salzburg’s finishing weakness, we are not expecting that. However, should the Madrilenians fall behind, it would not necessarily mean anything. After all, no team has picked up more points from behind in 2024/25 than Atlético Madrid (nine).
Particularly impressive: in three of the seven games so far, the Colchoneros only scored the winning goal in injury time. This has never been seen before in the entire history of the UEFA Champions League, but it shows how mentally and physically strong Diego Simeone’s team is, who we now see as no significant stumbling block against an opponent for whom nothing is at stake anymore.
Red Bull Salzburg – Atletico Madrid Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 0 – 0 – 2
The two teams already clashed in the 2020/21 season in the UEFA Champions League. In the group stage, which was still played as a home-and-away series at the time, Atlético Madrid won both games against Red Bull Salzburg and celebrated a 2-0 away win in their only visit to the city of Mozart so far.
Red Bull Salzburg – Atletico Madrid Tip
Practically nothing suggests that the Red Bulls could win against Atlético Madrid. The Mozartstadt team not only performed very weakly in the Champions League, but are also a shadow of themselves at the national level. It is therefore difficult to imagine that they will now manage their first home win in seven consecutive Champions League home games against the strong Rojiblancos, who have set the course for an early advance to the last 16 with victories against, among others, PSG (2-1) and Bayer Leverkusen (2-1).
Consequentially, the betting odds for Red Bull Salzburg against Atlético Madrid are clearly against the Mozarstädter, whose focus may already be on the away game at LASK in the ÖFB Cup on Sunday. We therefore recommend betting on the Rojiblancos winning by at least two goals.
