Another Under 2.5 at the Anoeta Stadium?
Thursday will once again be the big international day from an Austrian perspective. Three teams are in action, two of which have realistic chances of making it through the winter. SK Sturm Graz, on the other hand, have relatively no chance in the very difficult Europa League Group B. On Thursday evening, the difficult away match in the Basque Country is on the agenda. The match between Real Sociedad and Sturm Graz will kick off at 6:45 p.m.
The Spanish hosts have been in impressive form this season and are currently even top of the Spanish LaLiga. In the Europa League, the Basques are second behind AS Monaco (two points behind) and only one point ahead of PSV Eindhoven. In the fight for a place in the EL knockout phase, a home win against the bottom team from Styria with no points is a must. The bookmakers are only offering odds of around 1.25 on Real Sociedad vs Sturm Graz.
The Graz side were the big underdogs in this Group B and have not yet been able to reward themselves with a point despite some appealing performances. That is unlikely to change in Spain either.
Real Sociedad – Statistics & current form
This is the third time Real Sociedad de San Sebastian have reached the group stage of the UEFA Europa League, with the club finishing second in each of their first two appearances, only to be beaten in the last 32. In the previous year, they were eliminated by finalists Manchester United.
14 games without defeat
Currently, head coach Imanol Aguacil’s side are brimming with confidence as the Blue and Whites conceded their only defeat of the season on the first day of LaLiga against FC Barcelona. After the 2:4 defeat at Camp Nou, the club played itself into a real frenzy and currently even leads the table in the Spanish football top flight. Real Madrid and Sevilla could still overtake them in terms of points lost, but this does not change the Basques’ very strong form. RSSS is now unbeaten in no less than 14 competitive matches.
In the Aneota, RSSS are stingy with goals
What is striking about the Basques this season is that despite their winning streak, most games are very close. Although the Basques have already celebrated seven victories in the league, they have only been able to celebrate a victory with more than a one-goal lead in the away game at Cadiz and Celta Vigo (both 2-0). The five other victories were all by a one-goal margin.
No less than four times, only one goal was enough for the Basques to win the league. The home games in the Aneota Stadium are generally characterised by very few goals. After six league home games, Real Sociedad has a goal difference of 5:1. All home games ended with a sub 2.5 – including the Europa League match against AS Monaco. With these numbers, predicting an Under 2.5 between Real Sociedad and Sturm Graz is definitely an option.
Predicted line-up of Real Sociedad:
Remiro – Munoz, le Normand, Zubeldia, Gorosabel – Zubimendi, Merino – Januzaj, Silva, Portu – Isak
Last matches played by Real Sociedad:
LaLiga
10/31 2021 – San Sebastian 1 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
10/28 2021 – Celta Vigo 0 – 2 San Sebastian
10/24 2021 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 2 San Sebastian
Europa League Grp. B
10/21 2021 – Sturm Graz 0 – 1 San Sebastian
LaLiga
10/16 2021 – San Sebastian 1 – 0 Mallorca
Sturm Graz – Statistics & current form
In recent years, SK Sturm Graz have always been the Austrian team that embarrassed themselves to the bone in qualifying. This season, however, they managed the expected triumph against NS Mura and finally the Blackies were rewarded with an international group stage once again.
Paid a lot of dues
It was already clear after the draw that the chances of an international winter would only be theoretical. After all, besides Sturm Graz, there are three teams in Group B that have aspirations of competing in the Champions League. This will be a great experience for the mostly young Sturm eleven, but the defeats were to some extent to be expected.
At times, the Ilzer eleven presented itself as an unpleasant opponent even in the difficult international matches, but this was mostly due to the defensive work. In the forward play, the Grazers can hardly set accents, accordingly, they only managed to score in the clear 1:4 defeat against PSV Eindhoven. Due to the defensive strength of the home side, Real Sociedad vs. Sturm Graz is a good bet that not both teams will score.
The momentum has been lost
It is not only internationally that Christian Ilzer’s team had to cope with setbacks in recent weeks, but also in the domestic championship. The already comfortable lead over the competition has almost been squandered in the meantime, as the Graz side conceded three defeats in the last four league games. Despite this poor form, the Styrians are still the first “chaser” of Red Bull Salzburg, but the gap to the Bulls is already twelve points.
After Sturm Graz had been able to show a broad chest in their international appearances, the opposite is now the case. The Blackies have nothing left to lose anyway and without pressure it might be a little easier to play in the Europa League. The suspension of Jon-Gorenc Stankovic, who has to miss the first leg due to a yellow card, is definitely not an advantage. With captain Stefan Hierländer and Otar Kiteishvili, Christian Ilzer is missing two more important players.
Predicted line-up of Sturm Graz:
Siebenhandl – Dante, Wüthrich, Affengruber, Gazibegovic – Prass, Ljubic, Kuen – Niangbo – Jantscher, Yeboah
Last matches played by Sturm Graz:
Bundesliga
10/31 2021 – Sturm Graz 0 – 3 Wolfsberger AC
Cup
10/27 2021 – Sturm Graz 1 – 2 Ried
Bundesliga
10/24 2021 – Salzburg 4 – 1 Sturm Graz
Europa League Grp. B
10/21 2021 – Sturm Graz 0 – 1 San Sebastian
Bundesliga
10/17 2021 – Sturm Graz 1 – 0 Ried
Real Sociedad – Sturm Graz Direct comparison / H2H balance
The first leg a fortnight ago was also the first duel between the two teams. The Austrian outsiders lost the point due to a gross goalkeeping error by Jörg Siebenhandl and were narrowly beaten 0:1. The narrow defeat can, however, be considered a success in comparison with previous games against Spanish teams, as the Blackies had previously conceded no less than 18 goals in four games (against Valencia and Real Madrid).
Real Sociedad – Sturm Graz Tip
The starting positions could hardly be more different, the Basques were forced to concede a last-minute equaliser in the big derby at the weekend, but are still brimming with self-confidence. The visitors, on the other hand, have been in free fall lately and are virtually without a chance in Group B of the Europa League. Real Sociedad can open the door to the knockout phase with an expected home win. However, this forecast is by no means lucrative for Real Sociedad against Sturm Graz.
At first glance, a bet on the handicap success seems obvious due to the large differences in quality. However, on closer inspection of the RSSS results this season, one should leave it alone. The Basques are very successful, but by no means dominant, and in addition there are very few goals to be seen in the home games. Sturm Graz will also be very defensive and destructive due to their recent misery, which also argues for an Under 2.5. For Real Sociedad against Sturm Graz, betting odds around 2.30 on the Under 2.5 are certainly value-laden
