Fourth CL defeat en suite for the Bulls’ eleven?

In the UEFA Champions League Group D, the question of who will reach the round of 16 has already been answered on matchday four. The last two rounds are “only” about who will win the group and who will be allowed to continue in the Europa League. The fifth matchday will in all likelihood only serve as a preliminary skirmish before the direct duels are on the program on matchday six. However, should the Austrian serial champions pick up more points in the Basque Country than the Portuguese champions from Lisbon, the Bulls would already have their Europa League ticket in the bag. However, a home win is clearly favored in the Real Sociedad v Red Bull Salzburg match.

The Basques were drawn from pot four and were the horror draw for many teams from the weakest pot. This proved to be the case, as RSSS secured their place in the round of 16 early on with ten points from four games and currently lead the group thanks to their superior goal difference. This lead must be defended so that a draw in Milan in two weeks’ time would be enough to win the group. Accordingly, this is not a meaningless game for the home side, who will be aiming for victory. The bookmakers are offering odds of around 1.50 for a home win between Real Sociedad and Red Bull Salzburg

The parallel match will take place at Benfica Lisbon’s Estadio da Luz. Roger Schmidt’s side are currently without points and are therefore in danger of being eliminated early.

Real Sociedad – statistics & current form

On the face of it, 25 points from the first 14 league games is Real Sociedad de San Sebastian’s worst haul since the 2019/20 season (23 points back then). In the last three years, the Basques got off to an even better start to the season. However, the double burden of the Europa League instead of the top flight was easier to manage back then, especially as head coach Imanol Aguacil is not a fan of rotation. In the first four CL matches, he has only made two changes (!) to his starting line-up. Continuity is the keyword and is currently being rewarded

Early starter Real Sociedad

The Spaniards are the absolute early starters in this CL season. The Basques have scored seven goals in their first four games, no fewer than six of which were scored in the first 30 minutes of the game – the highest tally in the current season. The Spanish defense has another record, as goalkeeper Alex Remiro has only conceded two goals so far. A record that only Inter Milan, Borussia Dortmund and PSG can boast this season.

Regardless of the result on Wednesday, group victory will not be decided until the final matchday. For the Basques, it is therefore “only” a matter of maintaining their good starting position. Their home strength is a great advantage in this respect, as they have an average of 2.13 points in eight home games in LaLiga. Away from home, RSSS only manage 1.33 points per game.

The dress rehearsal for the match against the Bulls was again a success on Sunday thanks to a brilliant start. The Basques celebrated a 2:1 win at home against Sevilla FC. Both goals were again scored in the first half hour. A dominant first leg, a strong defense and a very good home record are all arguments that justify the low odds for a home win in Real Sociedad vs Red Bull Salzburg.

Predicted line-up of Real Sociedad:

Red Bull Salzburg – Statistics & current form

15 of 22 games in the basic round of the Austrian Bundesliga have been played and of course the team from the city of Mozart is top of the table. However, this is only thanks to their better goal difference compared to Sturm Graz. Even though Salzburg only have three points less to show for their efforts than twelve months ago, the current situation is not satisfactory for the fans who are used to success. The squad has lost quality due to notable departures and the Bulls have also been plagued by enormous injury worries for weeks. Head coach Gerhard Struber is still searching for the right set-up in this respect

No dominance, little penetration

Last season, Salzburg had a goal difference of 32:9 after 15 matchdays; the Bulls currently stand at 32:10. In terms of feeling, however, Salzburg are acting completely differently to in recent years. The hard-fought 3-2 home win against in-form Hartberger was the best proof of this, as the Styrians repeatedly played around the Struber team’s pressing. The dominance on the pitch was lost, but in the league it is often individual quality that provides the necessary points. Gala performances were few and far between. And from a sober point of view, Salzburg have dropped points more often (five times) than they have won games (four wins) in their last nine league games.

After the surprising away win at Benfica Lisbon, there have been three CL defeats in a row. A negative record now looms in the Basque Country, as the Bulls have never lost four games in a row in the top flight. In addition, Gerhard Struber could become the first Austrian coach since Josef Hickersberger to suffer four defeats in a row (2005/06 with Rapid Vienna).

Due to the absence of ten players and Daouada Guindo’s ineligibility to play, Struber will once again have to improvise. There are no signs of a surprise. Given their current lack of assertiveness against stronger teams, even a goal would be a surprise. We therefore recommend the betting tip for Real Sociedad vs Red Bull Salzburg that neither team will score.

Predicted line-up for Red Bull Salzburg:

Real Sociedad – Red Bull Salzburg head-to-head comparison / H2H result

This clash already took place in the 2017/18 season, back then in the knockout phase of the UEFA Europa League. The two teams drew 2-2 in the Basque Country before Salzburg secured their progress in the second leg thanks to a 2-1 win. After the Spaniards won the first leg in the current season, there has been one of each outcome after three duels

Real Sociedad – Red Bull Salzburg betting tip

In principle, the fifth matchday of the current CL season can only have a positive outcome for Salzburg: A point win could see them secure an early win in the winter, but even with a defeat, Struber’s eleven still have the best chance of finishing third in the group in their home game on the final matchday. In view of their current poor form, the many injuries and their poor away performances (just one win in ten away games in Spain), our prediction for Real Sociedad v Red Bull Salzburg is clearly in favor of the home side. Instead of the regular bet on the home win, we also recommend the bet “RSSS wins to zero”

Salzburg are not quite as attack-minded in 2023/24 as they have been in recent years. The Bulls have significantly less penetration in attack, which will be exacerbated by the new changes. The Basques also have a very strong defense (only two goals conceded), which is why we are surprised that odds of over 2.00 are offered for Real Sociedad vs Red Bull Salzburg for the under 2.5 bet. Due to the conditions described, this is clearly too high for us, which is why we recommend five units as a stake for this bet