Will the better or the luckier team prevail?

In the past, we have often observed the phenomenon that German teams in European competitions are often overestimated by the bookmakers. The fact is that, with the exception of the great FC Bayern Munich, hardly any Bundesliga team has been able to make a lasting splash at European level in recent years. Other leagues have long since overtaken the German Beletage, even at the top level.

But what do the betting providers actually do when they don’t even want to give any tendency in either direction in a match? In rare cases, identical quotes are offered for the home and away team. Exactly this constellation is provided by the second leg of the UEFA Europa League between Real Sociedad and RB Leipzig.

The Basques and the Saxons already met on equal terms in the first leg. They drew 2-2 at the Red Bull Arena, although San Sebastian were clearly inferior in terms of shots on goal and chances. However, RSSS are usually stronger in front of a home crowd now. Nevertheless, is it worth making a prediction on the Tedesco team’s progress on Thursday evening between Real Sociedad and RB Leipzig?

Real Sociedad – Statistics & current form

Real Sociedad shot towards Peter Gulacsi’s goal three times in the first leg. Twice the ball was in the net. With very little effort, but all the more impressive efficiency, the Basques created a promising starting position for the second leg next Thursday in the central city a week ago. Interestingly, it was only the third time since the start of the Europa League era in 2009 that a team scored twice from three shots on goal.

Although San Sebastian’s 2-2 draw the previous week gives them every chance of making the last 16, it was once again clear that the Blue and Whites’ attacking play is still lacking. This worrying trend has been going on for several weeks and months.

Since mid-November, the Spanish first division club has managed to score more than one goal in only one of 13 competitive matches, apart from cup appearances. In La Liga, the interim leaders have failed to score in seven of their last eleven matches. Consequently, only two of these games were victorious, which in turn led to a drop in the standings to seventh position. Last weekend’s dress rehearsal also went badly wrong. La Real” suffered a 4-0 defeat at the hands of Basque rivals Athletic Bilbao.

Real Sociedad stumble from game to game

Given their disappointing form in recent weeks, their mixed home record in La Liga with just two wins from their last seven home games and the fact that they have only won one of their three matches in front of a home crowd in the Europa League group stage as well, we believe that Thursday night’s second leg between Real Sociedad and RB Leipzig hides the more appealing value in betting on the away win.

In terms of personnel, coach Imanol Alguacil also has to contend with one or two absences. For example, former Dortmund player and top scorer Alexander Ishak will most likely not be available. Also absent are Januzaj, Monreal, Barrenetxea and Rico. Whether Mikel Merino will return in time after suffering a head injury at the weekend is equally doubtful.

Predicted Real Sociedad line-up:
Remiro; Zaldua, Zubeldia, Le Normand, Elustondo, Munoz; Portu, Zubimendi, Silva, Oyarzabal; Sorloth

Last matches played by Real Sociedad:

LaLiga
02/20 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 4 – 0 San Sebastian

Europa League Final Stage
02/17 2022 – RB Leipzig 2 – 2 San Sebastian

LaLiga
02/13 2022 – San Sebastian 2 – 0 Granada

02/06 2022 – Valencia 0 – 0 San Sebastian

Copa del Rey
02/03 2022 – San Sebastian 0 – 4 Real Betis

RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form

The people in charge of RB Leipzig can pat themselves on the back at the moment. As things stand, the change of coach from Jesse Marsch to Domenico Tedesco, which was completed at the beginning of December, was exactly the right decision. The central city team has played eleven competitive games under the German-Italian’s leadership and won seven of them. With an average of more than two points per game, the 36-year-old’s overall record is definitely impressive.

Next Thursday, Tedesco will take his place on the bench for the second time on the international stage. After the unfortunate 2:2 from the previous week, when his team failed to create a better starting position with a more effective use of chances, the Leipzigers now want to do exactly that and remain in the competition at all costs. The fact that the Saxons have set their sights on the Europa League after their CL exit was evident from the statements made by the sporting directors on several occasions recently.

Can RSSS stop the RBL offensive?

A lot can be expected from the red bulls. In addition to the already mentioned top form, the currently best team in the second half of the Bundesliga also underlined what they are capable of in the group phase of the top division.

Leipzig won the last away match in Bruges with 5:0, and their attack was also convincing at Manchester City (3:6) and in Paris (2:3). If we assume on Thursday evening that the home side will once again score a maximum of one goal, we think there is a lot to be said for playing Real Sociedad and RB Leipzig at odds on an away win. Although the reigning runners-up in the Europa League have lost three of their last four matches away from home, we rate the visitors as qualitatively stronger.

With the exception of Marcel Halstenberg, who has been injured for a long time, and the injured Angelino, whose use is still uncertain, all men are probably available. Christopher Nkunku and Dani Olmo in particular will cause the Basque defence enormous problems. Olmo was convincing as a wild card in the 6:1 win against Hertha at the weekend, Nkunku has already scored eight goals in seven European Cup games this season. Five of them, by the way, in three away games.

Predicted line-up of RB Leipzig:
Gulacsi; Klostermann, Simakan, Gvardiol; Mukiele, Laimer, Haidara, Henrichs; Nkunku, Olmo; Poulsen

Last matches played by RB Leipzig:

1st Bundesliga
02/20 2022 – Hertha Berlin 1 – 6 RB Leipzig

Europa League Final Stage
02/17 2022 – RB Leipzig 2 – 2 San Sebastian

1st Bundesliga
02/11 2022 – RB Leipzig 3 – 1 1 FC Cologne

02/05 2022 – Bayern Munich 3 – 2 RB Leipzig

01/23 2022 – RB Leipzig 2 – 0 Vfl Wolfsburg

Real Sociedad – RB Leipzig Direct comparison / H2H record

Of course, the two clubs faced each other for the first time in the first leg last Thursday. The fact that the match ended 2-2 was primarily due to the home side’s lack of chances, as they fired 20 shots towards goal. On balance, however, the central city side had to be satisfied with the draw, as they only managed to equalise on penalties eight minutes before the end of the game.

Real Sociedad – RB Leipzig Tip

Will the first of four remaining Bundesliga clubs in the Europa League have to take their hats off as early as Thursday evening? In addition to Dortmund, who are fighting to stay in the competition at Glasgow Rangers, the reigning runners-up from Leipzig also have a complicated task ahead of them. In the Basque country, the Bullen need at least a draw for extra time, or at best an away win to advance directly.

This does not seem impossible, because if you compare the current form curves of the teams, the advantages are definitely with the Tedesco team. As the best team in the league in the second half of the season, the Saxons have recently gained a lot of self-confidence and have shown top performances, especially offensively. RSSS, on the other hand, have failed to score in seven of their last eleven league games.

If we also consider the course of the game from the first leg and the difference in quality that was already visible there, we come to the conclusion that the betting odds on the Bundesliga team between Real Sociedad and RB Leipzig look far more promising.

The bottom line is that we are betting on an away win in the second leg of the Real Sociedad vs RB Leipzig match. At Bet365 we get 2.62 as top odds, which is worth a stake of six units. Other options are bets on Nkunku and Co. progressing or a goal from the Frenchman, who has delivered outstanding performances recently and has already scored eight goals in the current European Cup season.