Will Götze and Co. win the Europa League?
We can look forward to a real final in Group B of the UEFA Europa League on Thursday evening. In the Spanish Basque Country, Real Sociedad and PSV Eindhoven face each other in a direct duel for second place. Monaco, in first place, are already safely through, while last-place Sturm Graz have long since lost their chances of spending the winter in Europe.
The starting position before the aforementioned final for second place is relatively clear. The Dutch need just one point, while the San Sebastian side must win to move past their direct rivals in the standings. If we look at the odds before the match between Real Sociedad and PSV Eindhoven, the bookmakers are confident that the Spaniards will win. The 1.83 in the top on the home win implies a probability of occurrence of 54%.
Despite this, the inference of favouritism in favour of coach Imanol Alguacil’s team should be taken with a pinch of salt, especially as the Blue and Whites have failed to win either of their two home games in the group stage so far and have also slipped into a bit of a slump in the league of late. Between Real Sociedad and PSV Eindhoven, a prediction on a point win for the Dutch is therefore a very promising option at first glance.
Real Sociedad – Statistics & current form
Real Sociedad will be under pressure in their final group game on Thursday night. Anything less than a win would be tantamount to third place in the final standings and the consequent relegation to the Conference League. However, if the Basques can take the three points in their head-to-head clash with PSV Eindhoven, they will progress to the UEFA Europa League Intermediate Round in the spring. The starting position is conceivably simple, but the task against the Dutch runners-up is by no means.
This assessment is based, among other things, on the fact that the Basques have recently slipped into a small crisis of form. While the Alguacil team was still in second place in La Liga after 13 matchdays behind Real Madrid, for example, they have only managed a single point in their last three league games. At the weekend, they lost the top game against the royals with a score of 0:2. For the third time in a row, the “Txuri-Urdinak” failed to score a goal. They also dropped down to fifth position in the standings.
RSSS: Weak offence; strong defence
In general, the offensive play is certainly the biggest problem for the blue and white team. In total, only a meagre 19 goals have been scored in 16 La Liga games. In eight home games at national level, only five goals have been scored for the Basques. In the Europa League, too, San Sebastian had to settle for a disappointing 1-1 draw at home against AS Monaco and Sturm Graz. The “Erreala” have not scored more than one goal in any of their competitive matches at home this season.
However, considering the fact that the men around ex-Dortmund player Alexander Isak, who could only score one goal since the end of October and is also in a form slump, will be forced to play forward on Thursday evening, spaces could open up for the opponent. The average home record combined with the often too harmless attack and the descending form curve provide enough reasons to tip double chance X2 between Real Sociedad and PSV Eindhoven.
Predicted line-up of Real Sociedad:
Remiro; Gorosabel, Elustondo, Le Normand, Munoz; Januzaj, Guevera, Zubimendi, Oyarzabal; Sorloth, Isak
Last matches played by Real Sociedad:
LaLiga
12/04 2021 – San Sebastian 0 – 2 Real Madrid
Copa del Rey
12/01 2021 – Panaderia Pulido 0 – 4 San Sebastian
LaLiga
11/28 2021 – Espanyol 1 – 0 San Sebastian
Europa League Grp. B
11/25 2021 – AS Monaco 2 – 1 San Sebastian
LaLiga
11/21 2021 – San Sebastian 0 – 0 Valencia
PSV Eindhoven – Statistics & current form
In times when existing contracts are in many cases not even worth the paper they are documented on, Roger Schmidt, coach of PSV Eindhoven, has made a strong statement this week. Although RB Leipzig flirted with an engagement of the former Leverkusen player and asked for Schmidt’s basic willingness, the 54-year-old referred to his contract and announced his intention to fulfil it.
Among the team, fans and board, this public commitment naturally created a positive mood, which can certainly be used as an argument before the most important game of the season so far in the Basque country when it comes to identifying suitable odds between Real Sociedad and PSV Eindhoven.
Does the PSV defence hold up in the Basque Country?
Apart from that, the “Boeren” are in pole position before the final group match. A draw is already enough to move into the intermediate round in second place. The Dutch can build on their strength away from home on Thursday, as the Philips’ Sport Vereniging have picked up four points from their two previous visits to Monaco (0-0) and Sturm Graz (4-1) in Styria. Their form in the league is also impressive, with 13 points from the past five games.
Including the qualifying campaign, the Dutch runners-up have kept their clean sheet in five of their eleven European Cup matches this season. Most recently, there were even two clean sheets in a row on the international stage. In view of these good defensive performances and the very high individual quality in the forward play, the “Rood-Witten” can expect at least a draw in San Sebastian.
The absence of Max, Zahavi, Teze, Thomas, Ledezma and Romero due to injury will not change anything. Hopes are pinned on former international Mario Götze and the incredibly nimble and quick attackers Bruma, Vinicius and Gakpo, who are predestined for a game in which there will certainly be one or two counterattacking situations.
Predicted line-up of PSV Eindhoven:
Drommel; Mwene, Ramalho, Boscagli, Junior; Sangare, Van Ginkel, Götze; Bruma, Vinicius, Gakpo
Last matches played by PSV Eindhoven:
Eredivisie
12/04 2021 – PSV Eindhoven 4 – 1 FC Utrecht
11/28 2021 – SC Heerenveen 1 – 1 PSV Eindhoven
Europa League Grp. B
11/25 2021 – PSV Eindhoven 2 – 0 Sturm Graz
Eredivisie
11/20 2021 – PSV Eindhoven 2 – 0 Vitesse Arnhem
11/07 2021 – Fortuna Sittard 1 – 4 PSV Eindhoven
Real Sociedad – PSV Eindhoven Direct comparison / H2H record
The first leg in mid-September was the first and only meeting between these two teams so far. Real Sociedad turned around Mario Götze’s 1-0 lead through ex-Dortmunders Adnan Januzaj and Alexander Isak before Cody Gakpo, again on Götze’s assist, scored in the second half to make it 2-2. The Basques’ record against Dutch clubs thus remains slightly negative after seven games (2-2-3; 5:6 goals)
Real Sociedad – PSV Eindhoven Tip
The constellation in Group B of the UEFA Europa League is very simple. A direct duel will decide who will spend the winter in the second most important club competition in Europe and who will be relegated to the Conference League as third in the group. The Basques need a three-goal win, while a draw will suffice for the Dutch.
The fact that the betting odds between Real Sociedad and PSV Eindhoven are relatively clearly in favour of the home side is only partly understandable in view of recent impressions. While Alguacil’s side have lost three of their last four competitive games in La Liga and the Europa League, scoring just one goal in the process, the Boers have won five Eredivisie games in a row and have won two clean sheets in a row at European level.
In addition, it should not be neglected that coach Roger Schmidt’s team has some very talented and fast players in its ranks, who should benefit from the aforementioned starting position. The home side has to play forward and win; PSV, on the other hand, can lurk on the counterattack and, in our opinion, has a good chance of defending second place.
Therefore, we decide to bet on the double chance X2 in the duel Real Sociedad vs. PSV Eindhoven and play the quite value-packed 2.10 with a stake of five units. Alternatively, it may even make sense to take a look at the DNB 2
