Will Benfica start the CL season for the first time in 23/24?
The fourth matchday of the UEFA Champions League group stage could already decide the two round of 16 finalists in Group D. This will require a win for the top two teams in the group. One of the two matches will kick off early at 18:45 in the Reale Arena in the Basque Country. The Spanish hosts are seen as very clear favorites, as a bet on Real Sociedad vs. Benfica only pays double the stake
Head coach Roger Schmidt’s visitors have been one of the biggest disappointments of the current CL season so far and have fallen far short of expectations. The Portuguese champions are currently bottom of Group D and would not even slip into the Europa League. Based on the results so far, the clear role of favorites in favor of the hosts is certainly justifiable, but the Portuguese are by no means weaker than the Basques in terms of quality. It is therefore interesting to make a prediction for Real Sociedad vs. Benfica in favor of the visitors
The second match in this group will take place in the city of Mozart on Wednesday evening
Real Sociedad – statistics & current form
Given the results in the Spanish LaLiga, Real Sociedad de San Sebastian are unlikely to be happy with their performances so far. 19 points from twelve league games is the weakest haul since the 2018/19 season. However, last year’s fourth-placed team have the double burden of the top flight this season and are looking at their best. Alguacil’s side have already played two away games, but still have seven points and are currently in first place in Group D thanks to their better goal difference
Home strength speaks for the Basques
The victory in the first leg is certainly an argument that justifies the low odds on a home win for Real Sociedad against Benfica on Wednesday, while the Basques’ existing home strength serves as a further argument. In the domestic championship, RSSS have a 4-2-1 record after seven games and have been particularly impressive in offense (15 goals). In contrast, Aguacil’s side have scored just five goals in five away games.
Nationally and internationally are two different things, however, as the last time the Basques won at home in the top flight was two decades ago. In the 2003/04 group stage, Real Sociedad beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 in their very first CL home game on September 17. Since then, the Spaniards have played seven more games at the Reale Arena and have a 0-4-3 record.
What is striking about the Basques this season is their enormous pressing. In the first three games, Real Sociedad forced no fewer than 34 ball losses through high pressing – the best figure in the CL. Nevertheless, all three games ended with a successful bet on the under 2.5 – also a very good option for us early on Wednesday evening.
Predicted Real Sociedad line-up:
Benfica – Statistics & current form
What is going on with Benfica Lisbon? Last fall, Schmidt’s team delivered one spectacle after another and went from victory to victory. Both nationally and internationally, the Portuguese team could not be stopped for a long time. Before the start of this season, Benfica Lisbon had not lost in the top flight for no fewer than 14 group games (six wins, eight draws)
Scoreless and goalless
Benfica finished ahead of PSG and Juventus Turin in the group last year, scoring an impressive 16 times in six games. By the time they were eliminated in the quarter-finals, they had scored 26 goals in ten games. An average of 2.6 goals per game. This season, the Benfica offense is suffering from an inexplicable lack of firepower. The offense has fired no fewer than 31 shots so far, but the team has yet to score.
The departure of Goncalo Ramos weighs heavily and has not yet been compensated for. His replacement, Arthur Cabral, is still struggling to get going and has not scored a single goal in ten games in the league and Champions League. Schmidt is therefore getting creative and last weekend at GD Chaves, for example, ordered Goncalo Guedes, a trained left winger, into the center of the attack. The Portuguese certainly lack penetration this season, but the squad is still on a par with RSSS both in terms of width and quality.
Despite their poor CL results, they should be confident thanks to their league results. They have picked up 25 out of a possible 27 points from their last nine games. Benfica have sold themselves short so far, but this does not justify the high betting odds for the visitors. We therefore see great value in the Real Sociedad vs Benfica double chance X2 bet.
Expected line-up of Benfica:
Real Sociedad – Benfica head-to-head comparison / H2H result
The first leg two weeks ago was the first showdown between the two clubs, with Brais Mendez scoring for the blue-and-whites from San Sebastian to secure a narrow 1-0 away win at the Estadio da Luz. Mendez has now scored in all three CL matches for the Basques. At least the fact that Benfica have not lost any of their last three games in Spain gives the Portuguese side hope. A Spanish victory would also be a rarity, as Real Sociedad have only ever won the first and second legs of the European Cup and Champions League against Icelandic representatives Vikingur Reykjavik in the 1982/83 season.
Real Sociedad – Benfica betting tip
This starting position was not expected in the run-up to the group stage. Real Sociedad are often underestimated due to the lack of big names, but the Aguacil team were not expected to be in first place after three games. The dismal situation of the Schmidt team is also a big surprise. Together with AC Milan, the Portuguese champions are the only team yet to score a goal. A favorite role in favor of the traditionally home-strong Basques is understandable, but there is no value to be found in Real Sociedad vs. Benfica at odds of 1.90.
The Schmidt team have only lost one of their last nine away games in the top flight (this season against Inter Milan) and have previously gone eight consecutive matches unbeaten. Benfica do not have the enormous penetrating power of recent years, but we do not want to label the internationally experienced Portuguese as such a blatant underdog. A direct away win is too big a risk, but the prediction for Real Sociedad vs. Benfica is interesting with the “Draw no Bet 2” with odds of up to 2.85. Four units are used as the stake here
