Basque derby as LaLiga top match
Only a truncated matchday is on the agenda in the Spanish LaLiga this weekend. At the same time as the 17th matchday, the Spanish Supercup will also be played.
There are therefore only eight of ten league matches this weekend. The absolute top match will be played at the Reale Arena late on Saturday evening, as the big Basque derby kicks off at 9pm. In the duel between Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao, the tip on the home victory of the current third in the table is slightly favoured.
Real Sociedad de San Sebastian has played a fantastic season so far and with 32 points is the first chaser of the top duo from Barcelona and Madrid. But the big local rival from Bilbao is also playing a very good season so far and is in the middle of the fight for the international starting positions. Before the Basque derby, the two teams are currently separated by six points.
The momentum is also in favour of the home side, who have won their last three games, while Bilbao have drawn twice in a row. The bookmakers’ assessment that the home side is the most likely outcome between Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao is therefore understandable.
The “Basque Derby”, which is also often referred to as the “AP-8 Derby” in reference to the motorway that links the two cities, will be played for the 172nd time in history on Saturday.
Real Sociedad – Statistics & current form
For four years now, Imanol Alguacil has been head coach at his heart’s club Real Sociedad de San Sebastian. His jubilation after the Copa del Rey triumph in April 2021 is unforgettable, when he sang a fan chant at the press conference wearing an RSSS jersey and a fan scarf. Aguacil hails from the Basque club’s youth ranks and has held various positions at the club since 2013 after retiring from his career.
The development since he took over has been steadily upwards. The 32 points from 16 league games are the best figure since the 2002/03 season (37 points at the time, finishing second). But it’s not only nationally that things are going according to plan, RSSS also presents itself convincingly in the Europa League and finished the group phase in first place ahead of Manchester United.
Three league wins in a row
There was a brief period of weakness between matchday eleven and 13, when the Basques went without a win three times in a row. However, this has long been forgotten and with a 2-1 away win in Sevilla, the Aguacil eleven said goodbye to the winter break. Since the re-start, goalkeeper Alex Remiro has twice kept his box clean and the Basques celebrated 2-0 victories against both Osasuna and Almeria. They also kept a clean sheet in the cup competition. After three games without conceding a goal, a prediction on the tip “Both teams score? No” seems promising.
The home side is also unlikely to set off any offensive fireworks. In the eight home games so far, only nine goals have been scored. In total, there have only been two games at the Reale Arena with a successful bet of over 2.5, so we can expect a Basque derby where little risk is taken.
Predicted line-up of Real Sociedad:
Remiro – Rico, Le Normand, Zubeldia, Elustondo – Illarramendi, Zubimendi, Merino – David Silva – Sörloth, Kubo
Last matches played by Real Sociedad:
La Liga
08/01/2023 – Almeria 0 – 2 Real Sociedad
Copa del Rey
05/01/2023 – Logrones 0 – 1 Real Sociedad
La Liga
31/12/2022 – Real Sociedad 2 – 0 Osasuna Pamplona
Copa del Rey
22/12/2022 – CD Coria 0 – 5 Real Sociedad
Friendly club matches
17/12/2022 – Leeds 2 – 1 Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & Current form
Founding member, never been relegated and never had a player put on the Bilbao jersey without a close connection to the Basque Country. This history should be known to every football fan by now, but it is still impressive. Moreover, the tradition-conscious Basques are not just a fellow traveller in the Spanish top flight, but manage time and again to assert themselves in the top flight. International appearances are also not uncommon for the red and whites from Bilbao.
Only 14 goals conceded in 16 games
Local rivals Real Sociedad’s defence has already been described as a strength, but the numbers of head coach Ernesto Valverde’s side are even more convincing. Under the 58-year-old former FC Barcelona coach, goals conceded are a rarity, as Athletic Bilbao have conceded just 14 so far. On average, this means less than one goal conceded per game. Spanish international goalkeeper Unai Simon has only conceded two goals twice this season (in a 3-2 win over Rayo Vallecano and a 2-2 draw with Getafe). In the remaining games, Unai Simon conceded six goals and kept eight clean sheets.
Among other things, the seventh-placed team in the Spanish LaLiga has not conceded a goal in its last three league games. Since the re-start after the World Cup break, Valverde’s team has generally been a poor show of football, as both against Betis Sevilla and Osasuna the team went goalless. These figures underline the interesting betting odds for the Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao match, predicting a derby without many goals.
The role as a narrow outsider can also be explained by the fact that the Valverde team is much stronger in front of the home crowd than away from home. They average 1.89 points per game at home and only 1.29 away from home.
Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Simon – Berchiche, Vivian, Alvarez, de Marcos – Zarraga, Vesga – N. Williams, Sancet, I. Williams – Guruzeta
Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:
La Liga
10/01/2023 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 0 Osasuna Pamplona
Copa del Rey
06/01/2023 – Eldense 1 – 6 Athletic Bilbao
La Liga
30/12/2022 – Real Betis 0 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
Copa del Rey
21/12/2022 – Sestao 0 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
Club friendlies
18/12/2022 – Udinese 0 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad – Athletic Bilbao Direct comparison / H2H record
In a long-term historical comparison, the founding member of the Spanish LaLiga from Bilbao has the edge over RSSS. Of the 171 games played so far, Bilbao have won 69 matches, while Real Sociedad de San Sebastian have celebrated “only” 57 victories. Athletic Bilbao have not lost their last three derbies in the league (one win, two draws). However, the last away win at the Reale Arena dates back to spring 2017. Since then, there have been three wins for RSSS and most recently two draws.
Real Sociedad – Athletic Bilbao tip
A derby always has its own laws and accordingly, a prediction on the outcome of the explosive Basque derby between Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao is not an easy undertaking.
Basically, the pendulum is swinging more in the direction of the home side, which can be inferred from Bilbao’s weaker performances away from home. However, the teams are actually on a par and after the last two Sociedad home derbies ended in a draw, this bet certainly has value and can be found in our top tips.
The bet with the best chance-risk ratio, in our opinion, between Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao is the prediction that both teams will not score. Both teams have a very strong defence that concedes very few goals. Six times to nil and eight times without conceding a goal respectively speak a clear language. In addition, both teams have not conceded a league goal in 2023. We are confident that this series will continue for at least one of the two teams and therefore recommend six units that both teams do not score.
