Chelsea on their mind, Villarreal in front of their chest
Real Madrid remains a phenomenon. Probably no other football team in this world has the gift of being there on the dot in important games like the royals from the Spanish capital. This was evident once again last week when they prevailed 4-0 at Camp Nou to book their place in the Copa del Rey final despite losing at home in the first leg.
With Real Madrid winning their last league match 6-0 last weekend, it could be concluded that betting on a home win between Real Madrid and Villarreal on Saturday night is a mere formality.
However, caution should be exercised as the Madrilenians are known to be in UEFA Champions League action next week and, with a twelve-point deficit in La Liga, are likely to be more focused on the first leg against Chelsea.
With that said, when looking at Real Madrid vs Villarreal predictions, it is worth bearing in mind that the White Ballet have struggled mightily against last year’s CL semi-finalists in both of their previous encounters this season. The first leg at league level was even lost by the (still) reigning champions. In the cup competition, the Galactics turned a 0:2 deficit into a 3:2 victory.
So what will weigh more on Saturday? The positive flow after recent remarkable performances or the possibly even somewhat subconscious prudence with regard to the international task on Wednesday? We’ll get the answer to that on Saturday from 21:00 (live on DAZN).
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid could not have come out of the winter break much better. First, the royals won their La Liga home match against Real Valladolid in a very convincing manner with 6-0, then the Galacticos boarded the Camp Nou in Barcelona and fixed the first Copa del Rey final ticket since 2014 thanks to an outstanding and in advance hardly thought possible 4-0 victory.
The outstanding man in both games was Karim Benzema, who scored a treble in each match. Some bettors would certainly be tempted to place another wager on the French star striker scoring for the third game in a row on Saturday night, but it should not be forgotten that La Liga is currently only in third place in the Madrilenians’ priority ranking.
Will Real have to be patient again?
With Wednesday night’s quarter-final first leg in the top flight on the agenda, we wouldn’t be surprised if experienced coach Carlo Ancelotti makes a change or two to his starting eleven. The fact that Real Madrid are still the clear favourites against Villarreal according to the odds is due to their home strength.
In 13 games at the Estadio Santiago de Bernabeu, the reigning Champions League winners have so far remained completely unbeaten in league play. Nine victories compare to four draws. Only nine goals conceded attest to the extraordinarily stable home defence of the second-placed team, which has not conceded more than one goal in any of its home matches.
In seven of the 13 matches in front of their own fans, a maximum of three goals were scored, which is why it may make sense to minimise the risk with the double chance 1X, while at the same time betting on a match with a maximum of three goals after regular playing time. Since the capital club has won the second half in 14 of its 27 La Liga matches, the odds on a higher-scoring second half or a late decision in favour of the home side also promise attractive value in the Real Madrid vs Villareal clash.
Last matches of Real Madrid:
Copa del Rey
06/04/2023 – FC Barcelona 0 – 4 Real Madrid
La Liga
02/04/2023 – Real Madrid 6 – 0 Real Valladolid
20/03/2023 – FC Barcelona 2 – 1 Real Madrid
Champions League Final
16/03/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 0 Liverpool FC
La Liga
11/03/2023 – Real Madrid 3 – 1 Espanyol
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
For long periods this season, it looked as though Villarreal would not be able to build on their good 2021/22 campaign. After the yellow submarine made it to the last four in Europe’s most important club competition last season and finished seventh in La Liga, coach Quique Setien’s team is now aiming to top that ranking.
At the moment, they are sixth in the standings. On a positive note, even the gap to the fourth-placed team is only four points, so the Champions League is still a long way off. Especially not if the Yellow team can confirm and maintain its outstanding form in the coming weeks.
Is the yellow submarine still riding the wave of success?
The kickers from the east of the country have recorded a whopping 13 points from their latest five league games. Among other things, the difficult away games at the home strong UD Almeria (2:0) as well as at the cup finalist Osasuna (3:0) were very sovereign and without conceding a goal. Consequently, the sixth-placed team in the table should not be underestimated under any circumstances. The longer Setien’s team manages to stand firm at the back, the greater the chances of winning a point.
However, the fact that we are not predicting a Real Madrid vs. Villarreal away win is primarily due to the fact that the Yellow team has only won five out of 14 matches in the Spanish top flight and has only managed to score 15 goals.
Nevertheless, the goal difference in opposing stadiums of 15:14 naturally provides a good basis to solidify the under-achievement in this match. Apart from that, the visitors can fully concentrate on this highlight match in the capital, as they were very surprisingly defeated by Anderlecht in the last 16 of the Conference League.
Last matches of Villarreal:
La Liga
02/04/2023 – Villarreal FC 2 – 0 Real Sociedad
19/03/2023 – Osasuna Pamplona 0 – 3 Villarreal FC
European Conference League Final Stage
17/03/2023 – Villarreal FC 0 – 1 RSC Anderlecht
La Liga
13/03/2023 – Villarreal FC 1 – 1 Real Betis
European Conference League Final Stage
10/03/2023 – RSC Anderlecht 1 – 1 FC Villarreal
Real Madrid – Villarreal Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
In the introduction we already indicated that the two teams are now facing each other for the third time this season. In the cup competition, Villarreal led 2-0 at home but conceded three goals in the second half. In the league, however, the yellow submarine prevailed 2-1 at the beginning of the year.
Generally speaking, the Spanish side from the east can be considered a fearful opponent for the Royals, as the favourites have only managed to win one of their five most recent encounters in the league. However, they have lost only one of their 22 home games against Villarreal (15 wins, six draws).
Real Madrid – Villarreal tip
For Real Madrid, it’s all about capping off a sensational week so far on Saturday night. After the 6-0 win over Real Valladolid as well as the emotional 4-0 triumph at arch-enemy Barcelona, the royals will be looking to maintain their flow while also building confidence for the upcoming task in the top flight. Admittedly, the quarter-final first leg in the Champions League against Chelsea is also a risk factor for the upcoming duel, as a preliminary decision has already been made in the Spanish championship race anyway.
Furthermore, when making Real Madrid vs. Villarreal tips, it should be taken into account that the visitors are in very good form at the moment, taking 13 points from their last five league games and also winning two tough away games by zero. In both previous season duels, the Galactics have also had problems with the yellow submarine.
In light of these facts, we are backing away from a bet on the three-way market and have instead opted to combine betting odds on the 1X with the Under 3.5 between Real Madrid and Villarreal.
