Will Real go without conceding another goal in the CL?
It is almost an old tradition that Real Madrid and Shakhtyor Donetsk meet in the Champions League group stage. In the past two seasons, the reigning champions from Spain and Ukraine were drawn into the same group.
While in 2020/21 the underdogs sensationally won the first and second legs against the royals, last season the Madrilenians prevailed twice. On Wednesday evening, there is again much to suggest that coach Carlo Ancelotti’s defending champions will live up to their role as favourites. Incidentally, the odds for a Real Madrid home win over Shakhtyor Donetsk could hardly be clearer, as they are currently even below 1.20.
Despite the adverse circumstances and sad world situation, the guests from Eastern Europe are not to be underestimated, as RB Leipzig and Celtic Glasgow have already experienced on the first two matchdays. The Ukrainians have a respectable four points, putting them in second place in the standings behind the Spanish capital’s unbeaten leaders. Nevertheless, we would tend to predict the “white ballet” between Real Madrid and Shakhtyor Donetsk.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
It took until October before Real Madrid failed to win their first competitive match of the 2022/23 season. After a previously perfect start with nine wins from nine matches in La Liga, the Champions League and the European Super Cup, coach Carlo Ancelotti’s team had to settle for a 1-1 draw against surprise team Osasuna on Sunday evening despite leading 1-0.
Around two weeks before the “El Clásico” against FC Barcelona, the Royals had to relinquish the lead in the standings to their arch-rivals from Catalonia due to their worse goal difference. This, in turn, is due to a special statistic: Thibaut Courtois and his substitute Andri Lunin in Real’s goal have had to make exactly one save in all seven league matches so far.
Still without conceding a goal in the Champions League
Possibly this is also the reason why the odds on a home win, including the clean sheet, are quite high at 1.90 ahead of the Champions League match between Real Madrid and Shakhtyor Donetsk. Nevertheless, we would add a corresponding bet to the portfolio, because on the international stage there has not been a single goal conceded in three matches.
Frankfurt (2:0), Celtic (3:0) and RB Leipzig (2:0) were all brought to their knees with a clean sheet. Since the start of the last CL season, Courtois has scored seven times between the Madrid posts. More often than anyone else. On Wednesday, however, the Belgian is questionable after missing the match against Osasuna due to problems with his sciatica.
Apart from that, it should be mentioned that the Galactics have rarely allowed themselves to slip up in the CL group stage in the recent past. The last six group matches in the top flight have all been victorious with a goal difference of 17:1 (!)
Will Real once again bring about a late decision?
Also interesting: In four of the last seven preliminary round victories of the royals, the score was still tied at the break. If you want to bet on the experienced Ancelotti team turning the match in its own direction after the break, you can bet on the double HTX/FT1 result between Real Madrid and Shakhtyor Donetsk.
The return of Karim Benzema, who first missed a penalty at 1-1 and was then denied a goal due to a narrow offside position, is a promising sign. Together with Vini Jr, who has already been involved in six goals (three goals, three assists) in four games against Schachtjor, the Real offensive should get some top-class players. Besides the questionable Courtois, Modric and Vazquez are not available.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Lunin; Carvajal, Militao, Alaba, Mendy; Valverde, Tchouameni, Kroos; Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
La Liga
03/10/2022 – Real Madrid 1 – 1 Osasuna Pamplona
19/09/2022 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Real Madrid
Champions League Grp. F
15/09/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 RB Leipzig
La Liga
11/09/2022 – Real Madrid 4 – 1 Mallorca
Champions League Grp. F
07/09/2022 – Celtic Glasgow 0 – 3 Real Madrid
Shakhtyor Donetsk – Statistics & current form
Shakhtyor Donetsk’s mission this Champions League season is not purely sporting. For the multiple Ukrainian champions, it is also first and foremost about presenting their own war-torn country in Europe and getting messages across. So far, the orange and black team has succeeded excellently.
No one would have thought before this group stage that after two match days, Shakhtyor would be on a proud four points. Coach Igor Jovicevic’s men won 4-1 at RB Leipzig, while at home in exile in Warsaw they managed a 1-1 draw against Celtic Glasgow.
Shakhtjor Donetsk impress with effectiveness
The yield is surprising in that the club’s philosophy changed of necessity after the war began. Whereas Donetsk used to be the leading destination for talented Brazilians looking to make the leap to Europe, there is – as of now – only one player from Sugarloaf in the squad. In fact, only four legionnaires remain in the squad. In terms of market value, the 2009 UEFA Cup winners are one of the biggest outsiders in the 32-strong field of participants in the top flight.
Admittedly, you also have to put the first two results in perspective. The Eastern Europeans met Leipzig at a time when nothing was going right for the Bundesliga side. At home against the reigning Scottish champions from Glasgow, the Jovicevic team was the weaker team with less possession and far fewer chances to score. Despite the positive results, we are therefore far from predicting a surprise coup for the visitors between Real Madrid and Shakhtyor Donetsk.
Especially because it is unlikely that the outsiders, for whom Mykhaylo Mudryk stands out from a balanced collective in terms of quality, will put in as efficient a performance on the pitch as they have in the two games so far. With six shots on goal, Shakhtyor scored five goals. In other words, the second-placed team has not created many chances so far. And that’s how it should stay against the Madrilenians. Korniienko will be absent due to injury. Totovytsky’s participation is a question mark.
Predicted line-up of Shakhtyor Donetsk:
Trubin; Taylor, Bondar, Matviyenko, Konoplya; Shved, Bondarenko, Stepanenko, Sudakov, Mudryk; Sikan
Last matches played by Shakhtyor Donetsk:
Premier League
01/10/2022 – Metalist Kharkiv 1 – 6 Shakhtar Donetsk
Champions League Grp. F
14/09/2022 – Shakhtar Donetsk 1 – 1 Celtic Glasgow
Premier League
10/09/2022 – Shakhtar Donetsk 2 – 1 Chornomorez Odessa
Champions League Grp. F
07/09/2022 – RB Leipzig 1 – 4 Shakhtar Donetsk
Premier League
02/09/2022 – Rukh Lviv 0 – 1 Shakhtar Donetsk
Real Madrid – Shakhtar Donetsk Direct comparison / H2H record
This is the seventh time the two clubs have faced each other in the Champions League. Four of the previous six meetings went to the Madrilenians, who scored a total of 17 goals. Of all the European clubs that have faced Real at least five times in Europe’s most important club competition, however, Shakhtyor have the fourth-best win rate. However, this will tend to be revised downwards after Wednesday evening.
Real Madrid – Shakhtyor Donetsk Tip
To date, there have only been four clubs in European Cup history to win at least twice at Real Madrid in an international competition. Shakhtyor Donetsk could become the fifth club on Wednesday night. Because the Ukrainians already took all three points in the Spanish capital in the 2020/21 group stage – but at the small Estadio Alfredo di Stefano back then – a second away win at the defending champions now beckons.
However, this is not really likely. This is underlined by the betting odds before the Real Madrid vs. For an away win, the tested bookmaker Bet3000 has 16.00 at the top. Anything other than a win for the Royals would be a big surprise, although coach Jovicevic’s guests have unexpectedly already registered four points so far.
With the home side having won six group games in a row, conceding just one goal in the process and winning their last two matches in the current CL season, we’ve decided to bet on a home win without conceding between Real Madrid and Shakhtyor Donetsk.
