Will the Royals turn the game around?
Paris Saint-Germain pushed open the door to the quarter-finals with a last-minute win in the first leg, when Kylian Mbappé made it 1-0 in the fourth minute of stoppage time. The Rouge-et-Bleu’s objective against the Blancos, who are strong at home, is now very simple: avoid defeat at all costs. However, after the abolition of the away goals rule, even a 0:1 or 1:2 at the Santiago Bernabéu would mean extra time.
The pressure is correspondingly great on the Champions League record winners. In only one out of ten cases have the royals progressed when they suffered a defeat in the first leg. The odds are accordingly evenly balanced in the run-up to the clash between Real Madrid and PSG.
However, the Parisians have already failed in the Champions League in three out of eight cases after a win in the first leg with a correspondingly high defeat in the second leg. Considering that the Rouge-et-Bleu have won only one of their last eight away games in Spain and now face a home-strong Madrilenians, the best value is to be found in Real Madrid vs PSG in tip 1.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
After finishing runners-up in the 2020/21 season, things are going much better again for Real Madrid this year. In La Liga, the Blancos are strolling almost undisturbed towards their 35th championship. Eleven matchdays before the end of the season, they are already eight points ahead of Sevilla.
Added to this is the Supercopa de Espana won in January and the possibility of further extending their status as record winners in the Champions League. For that to happen, however, the white ballet will have to turn the game around at home.
Still undefeated at home in league play
In fact, the Merengues have only managed to turn around a Champions League knockout match with a win in the second leg on one occasion in ten after losing the first leg.
Considering the home strength of the Galactics, who are unbeaten in 14 home games in La Liga (ten wins, four draws), the chances could be much worse. After all, Real have won all three of their league games since the first leg against PSG, scoring 8 goals to 1, and celebrated a successful dress rehearsal on Saturday with a 4-1 win over Real Sociedad.
Without a single shot on goal in the first leg
With Real Madrid against PSG, the odds on a home win for the Blancos are correspondingly good, with the Spaniards forcing at least extra time. However, Carlo Ancelotti’s team will have to improve their forward play.
For only the second time since Champions League goals were recorded (since 2003/04), the royals failed to score a single goal in the first leg. However, given that goal-scorer Karim Benzema is particularly fond of scoring at home, where he has scored 12 goals in his last 11 Champions League home games, there should be opportunities in the second leg.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois – Marcelo – Militao – Alaba – Carvajal – Valverde – Camavinga – Junior – Modric – Rodrygo – Benzema
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
LaLiga
03/05 2022 – Real Madrid 4 – 1 San Sebastian
02/26 2022 – Rayo Vallecano 0 – 1 Real Madrid
02/19 2022 – Real Madrid 3 – 0 Deportivo Alaves
Champions League Final
02/15 2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 1 – 0 Real Madrid
LaLiga
02/12 2022 – FC Villarreal 0 – 0 Real Madrid
France PSG – Statistics & current form
Paris Saint-Germain won just one title in the 2020/21 season: the Coupe de France. The expectations of those in charge were correspondingly high for the new season, in which the national championship was the top priority after Lille’s surprising title win.
And because hardly any team in Ligue 1 is currently keeping up, this goal should have been in the bag long ago. After 27 league games, the Rouge-et-Bleu already have a 13-point lead over the second-placed team.
Last two away defeats in a row in Ligue 1
Meanwhile, though, there have been several setbacks for the Parisiens. The Trophée des Champions was lost to Lille right at the start of the season, while in the Coupe de France no title defence is possible after the quarter-final exit against Nice on penalties.
Accordingly, the royal class is now important for the Rouge-et-Bleu, to which the latest success in league play has also been clearly subordinated. Two of the three league games since the first leg against the Blancos have been lost. Most recently, the Parisiens failed their dress rehearsal on Saturday in a 1-0 defeat in Nice.
The fine line between national ease and international excitement
Over the past decade, this phase of the season has been the Parisiens’ undoing, when the air was already out nationally. On many occasions, there was a lack of excitement at international level, which is reflected in the fact that the Route-et-Bleu only progressed in the Champions League on five of the eight occasions when they won the first leg.
Added to that is a poor away record in general (Pochettino’s eleven are winless for four Champions League away games) and in Spain in particular (just one away win in their last eight away games).
Predicted PSG line-up:
Donnarumma – Mendes – Kimpembe – Marquinhos – Dagba – Verratti – Pereira – Gueye – Di María – Mbappé – Messi
Last matches played by PSG:
Ligue 1
03/05 2022 – Nice 1 – 0 Paris Saint-Germain
02/26 2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 3 – 1 Saint-Etienne
02/19 2022 – Nantes 3 – 1 Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League Final
02/15 2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 1 – 0 Real Madrid
Ligue 1
02/11 2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 1 – 0 Rennes
Real Madrid – PSG Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 4 – 3 – 4
The two teams have faced each other a total of eleven times in a competitive match so far and with four wins and three draws each, the record is even. In their last encounter in a knockout round (Champions League last 16 2017/18), Real Madrid first won the first leg 3-1 at home and then also celebrated a 2-1 victory in Paris.
Real Madrid – PSG France Tip
For Real Madrid against PSG, the prediction goes in the direction of the home side, who are the measure of all things, at least at home in the Santiago Bernabéu. On the other hand, the Rouge-et-Bleu have not only lost their last two games away from home in Ligue 1, but are also winless in four Champions League away games in a row (two draws, two defeats). Add to that the fact that only one of their last eight away games in Spain has been won.
The value of a home win for the Blancos is correspondingly high, and they can certainly be expected to show more offensive power than in the first leg.
