Does the Mazzarri effect also ignite at the Bernabéu?

After four matchdays, Manchester City, FC Bayern and Real Madrid are exactly three teams who have yet to drop a point in this group stage. Unsurprisingly, these three clubs are also the hottest contenders for the 2023/24 Champions League triumph, at least according to the betting odds, which currently consider a title defense by the Sky Blues to be the most realistic

While the German record champions have already secured first place in their group, the royals from the Spanish capital and the Citizens will also be looking to cement group victory in the fifth matchday. Coach Carlo Ancelotti’s team would no longer be displaced from top spot if they were to draw at home to Calcio Napoli on Wednesday evening. This may also be the reason why relatively high odds of 1.85 are being offered for a home win between Real Madrid and Napoli

The visitors from the city of Maradona have not yet been able to build on the great performances of the previous season. Although the team at the foot of Mount Vesuvius are hoping that the change of coach from Rudi Garcia to Walter Mazzarri has brought about a turnaround, it cannot be assumed that the potential trend reversal will be immediate and complete. Ahead of the top-of-the-table Group C clash between Real Madrid and Napoli, the general trend is therefore to predict Jude Bellingham and Co. as the young Englishman looks to make history once again during the week.

Real Madrid – statistics & current form

Two topics in particular are currently dominating the media in connection with Real Madrid. Firstly, the likely vacant coaching position next summer and secondly, Kylian Mbappé. With regard to the first issue, there are already two hot candidates to succeed Carlo Ancelotti, who is likely to move to the Brazilian FA, in the shape of current Leverkusen coach Xabi Alonso and Real legend Raúl. Whether the new Real coach in 2024/25 will have the exciting task of integrating the French superstar into his team is still up in the air. Should Mbappé want to leave Paris for good, however, the Spanish capital would be his preferred choice.

There is a very simple reason why these more sporting matters are being discussed at the moment, as the Galactic are right on target in terms of results. The madridistas have won 15 of their 18 competitive matches so far in the league and the top flight. Their only defeat to date came in the city derby against Atletico Madrid (1:3).

Real’s starting eleven almost makes itself up

Also impressive is the fact that the reigning Spanish cup winners have won seven and drawn one of their eight matches at home so far. They have also only conceded three goals in front of their own fans. Five of the aforementioned eight matches have been cheered on, including the clean sheet.

In the Champions League, there was a 1-0 win against Union Berlin and a commanding 3-0 victory over Sporting Braga. All in all, the Whites have won eight of their last nine CL home games (one draw) and have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five CL games at home. It would therefore only be logical to play the odds on a home win for the favorites in the Real Madrid v Napoli clash.

Incidentally, the curious statistic that teams coached by Ancelotti have always scored at least one goal in 43 consecutive home matches in the top flight also speaks for itself. When it comes to goals, the aforementioned Jude Bellingham comes back into the picture. The former Dortmund player currently has nine goals in the top flight. After Haaland, Mbappé and Benzema, the Englishman could become only the fourth footballer to score a double-digit number of goals in Europe’s most important club competition as a teenager.

However, it should not go unmentioned that coach Ancelotti still has to improvise in terms of personnel. For example, both goalkeepers will be absent, leaving Andriy Lunin in charge of the goal. The midweek fixture will also come too soon for Camavinga, Modric, Militao, Tchouameni, Güler and Vini Jr.

Predicted Real Madrid line-up:

Naples – Statistics & current form

Last season, a strong Napoli side reached the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League, but were knocked out by league rivals AC Milan. In 2023/24, it would be something of a surprise if the Partenopei were to make it through to the last eight of the top flight again. Incidentally, there is only so much that can be done about the likelihood of this happening over the last two matchdays.

Even if the prediction of an away win between Real Madrid and Napoli on Wednesday evening were to come true, the Italians would not have the group win and the associated “easier draw” in the round of 16 in their own hands. However, before they can even think about the knockout round in this competition at the foot of Mount Vesuvius, they must first secure second place. The fact is that a final match at home to Braga in two weeks’ time looms if Napoli lose out in Madrid and the northern Portuguese side win their home match against the Bundesliga side from Köpenick as expected

Will the change of coach bring back success in the short AND medium term?

While an away win in the Spanish capital would have been unthinkable after the poor performances at home against Union Berlin (1:1) or at home against Empoli (0:1) before the international break, the atmosphere at Maradona’s heirs has changed for the better. The reason for this is the change of coach from Rudi Garcia to Walter Mazzarri, whose debut last weekend in the 2:1 win at Atalanta Bergamo was an immediate success.

Nevertheless, we are skeptical as to whether the Neapolitans, who have won their first two away CL games this season, can carry their momentum into the Santiago Bernabéu. In any case, we are of the opinion that the problems are of a more profound nature. Defensively, Min Jae-Kim is missing at every turn, in midfield Lobotka, Zielinski, Zambo Anguissa and co. are still prone to some hair-raising lapses and the offense is also nowhere near the flow of the previous season. Victor Osimhen should at least help with the latter issue. The Nigerian made his long-awaited comeback from injury at the weekend and even dispensed with his obligatory mask…

Predicted Napoli line-up:

Real Madrid – Napoli head-to-head comparison / H2H result

The two teams have faced each other five times in the Champions League and its predecessor competition. Real Madrid have won four of these five encounters. Including the first leg, in which the galactic side had to stretch themselves in Naples. After trailing 1-0 and 2-2 at one stage, an own goal from keeper Alex Meret ultimately secured a 3-2 win for the Spaniards, who have now won 15 of their last 16 CL matches against Italian teams!

Real Madrid – Napoli betting tip

March 2012 was the last time Walter Mazzarri was on the touchline as coach in a Champions League match. More than eleven years later, the 62-year-old is celebrating his comeback in the top flight. Then, as now, the soccer coach was in the service of SSC Napoli. In 2012, Mazzari lost his last CL match 4-1 against Chelsea; in 2023, there is the threat of another defeat. This is underlined by the odds between Napoli and Real Madrid, which lean towards the home side. Of the 13 duels between Ancelotti and Mazzarri to date, eight have gone to “Don Carlo”.

Despite the fact that the Whites are understandable favorites, it has to be said that the Spanish cup winners are currently short of personnel and have to do without many important players. However, the first eleven is still very good and, above all, in good form. At the weekend they won 3:0 at Cadiz and before that 5:1 at Valencia. The Galactic have won 15 of their 18 competitive matches this season, including all four in the Champions League

Although Napoli won an emotional away win in Bergamo on Mazzarri’s debut at the weekend, have won both away CL games so far this season and have Osimhen back in the line-up, we think the hosts are ahead and are therefore leaning towards a home win between Real Madrid and Napoli.