Will Real switch back to CL mode?

Lovers of big and important soccer matches will get their money’s worth this week. In the UEFA Champions League, the Europa League as well as the Conference League, the first legs of the semi-finals are on the agenda from Tuesday to Thursday. First up are two highly-decorated clubs from Spain and England, who are aiming to lift the trophy in Istanbul on June 10, 2023.

For many experts, this first of two semifinals is already the anticipated final. In fact, ahead of the Real Madrid vs Manchester City encounter, the lowest odds by far are being offered for betting on the Citizens to be the overall winners in the top flight.

Consequently, the English champions also go into the two semi-final matches against the defending champions as clear favorites. Even looking at the first 90 minutes on Tuesday night in the Spanish capital, Guardiola’s eleven are considered to have the better chances.

Besides the most important question of which team will advance to the grand final, however, there are other topics that will bring in additional explosiveness. Can Pep Guardiola, for example, polish up his lousy semi-final record in the top division? Who will come out on top in the duel between two of Europe’s top scorers, Benzema and Haaland, and will the Royals once again outgrow themselves in the competition with their own anthem?

All these nail-biting and open questions we try to answer below with a subjective approach, but at the same time based on objective statistics, followed by a suitable Real Madrid vs. Manchester City prediction.

Real Madrid – statistics & current form

Real Madrid has been crowned 14 times in the most important club competition at international level. In this millennium alone, seven Champions League triumphs adorn the letterhead of one of the most successful, well-known and best clubs in the world. It seems as if the royals can always shift up a gear or two when the emotional anthem of the royal class sounds.

Considering the outstanding history in the UEFA Champions League as well as the title win last year, it comes as a bit of a surprise that odds in the range of 3.50 are offered between Real Madrid and Manchester City for the Galactics to reach the final. Without extensive explanations, the value in this “to-qualify” bet is definitely given.

Real Madrid – the measure of all things in Europe?

This is also evidenced by the various impressive statistics the white ballet can look back on in this competition. Ten of the past twelve Champions League matches have been won, and the Spaniards have also come out on top in nine of the past ten CL home matches, as well as in six consecutive knockout games and six straight encounters against English clubs, with Real even going without conceding a goal in four of the most recent five duels against teams from the Premier League.

And speaking of keeping a clean sheet, Belgian goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has also not had to clear the ball out of the net in the past three matches. They kept their clean sheet in the second leg of the round of 16 at home to Liverpool and in both quarter-finals against Chelsea and will be looking to continue their remarkable run against the Premier League leaders.

Are Vinicius and Co. outplaying the Sky Blues?

The star ensemble from the Spanish capital should certainly not lack confidence. Only on Saturday evening, Kroos, Modric and Co. were able to claim the next title in the Copa del Rey with a 2-1 final victory over Osasuna. The recent weaker performances in La Liga are not as important to us, however, as the focus has long been on the cup competitions and the royals can call up their top performance on the dot like hardly any other team in world soccer.

In terms of game tactics, the opponent from Manchester could even mean a relatively suitable match-up, because while the Citizens will probably have a lot of possession and want to dominate, the Ancelotti eleven has an outstanding quality in the switching game. Among others, mention should be made of left winger Vinicius Jr. who has now had at least one goal in ten consecutive starting appearances for Real (seven goals, five assists).

Last matches played by Real Madrid:

Copa del Rey

• 07/05/2023 – Real Madrid 2 – 1 Osasuna Pamplona

La Liga

• 03/05/2023 – Real Sociedad 2 – 0 Real Madrid
• 29/04/2023 – Real Madrid 4 – 2 Almeria
• 26/04/2023 – Girona 4 – 2 Real Madrid
• 23/04/2023 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Celta Vigo

Manchester City – statistics & current form

Few soccer fans in this world would probably doubt the thesis that Manchester City currently represents the best soccer team in Europe. After initial difficulties this season, coach Pep Guardiola’s men are on a quite excellent path to win the triple. In the championship, they managed to catch Arsenal on the home stretch in the last few weeks, in the FA Cup, the Sky Blues have also reached the final, and in the top flight, too, City is considered to be the hottest ticket to the title before the upcoming semi-finals.

In the past, however, the Citizens were often considered the top favorites in this competition. The sky-blue-and-white team has rarely lived up to this role. This may also have something to do with coach Pep Guardiola.

Although the perfectionist Catalan will probably go down in history as one of the greatest coaches of all time thanks to his playing philosophy and clear style, there is still a sad stigma attached to him at the moment.

Can Pep finally break his semifinal curse?

Nine times Pep and his teams have already reached the final round in the top flight, but only in three cases did they make it to the final. Guardiola’s team has already been eliminated six times in the semifinals. Only Jose Mourinho failed just as often in the final four in his coaching career. However, another interesting statistic gives hope for improvement, as Pep lost only five of a total of 21 duels against Real Madrid in his coaching career!

Apart from that, the most pronounced fist that the Citizens can throw into the ring at the moment is their brutal strength of form. The English Premier League leaders have not lost a game in exactly 20 matches. There have been 15 victories in the past 16 inter-competitive games. The only draw in this period was at Bayern, which can even be disregarded after the clear first leg victory.

And then there is a certain Erling Haaland, who week after week breaks new dusty records at national and international level and is virtually unstoppable as a force of nature in the offense. In 27 Champions League games so far, the Norwegian has scored a whopping 35 goals. Accordingly, the former Dortmund player scores every 58 minutes. In our eyes, therefore, the odds on a goal by Haaland between Real Madrid and Manchester City should also be examined more closely.

Last matches of Manchester City:

Premier League

• 06/05/2023 – Manchester City 2 – 1 Leeds
• 04/05/2023 – Manchester City 3 – 0 West Ham
• 30/04/2023 –  Fulham 1 – 2 Manchester City
• 27/04/2023 – Manchester City 4 – 1 Arsenal FC

FA Cup

• 22/04/2023 – Manchester City 3 – 0 Sheffield United

Real Madrid – Manchester City Direct comparison / H2H balance

For the ninth time, the two renowned clubs and (still) reigning champions of their countries will face each other in international competition. With three wins each for both clubs and two draws, the direct comparison so far is completely balanced. Manchester City, however, has won three of the last four direct duels.

Incidentally, this semifinal already took place in the preseason semifinals. Manchester City won 4:3 at home, but left the pitch with their heads down after losing the second leg 1:3 after extra time. A prediction of three or more goals also seems realistic for Tuesday night’s rematch between Real Madrid and Manchester City.

Real Madrid – Manchester City Tip

With great anticipation we look forward to the Champions League semifinal first leg between Real Madrid and Manchester City. Lower betting odds are offered on the Citizens, who are also considered the hottest favorites to win it all. Pep Guardiola’s men have worked hard to achieve this status in recent weeks, although it must be taken into account that on the “to-qualify” market the quotes are issued far too one-sidedly in our eyes.

On the one hand, it is always associated with a certain risk to bet in the top division against the royals, who, when it comes down to it, have always been able to go up another notch or two in recent years/decades. On the other hand, the Citizens have failed to be clear favorites more often in the recent past, especially during coach Pep Guardiola’s ongoing tenure.

Our preferred approach is therefore to tip the over 2.5 in the first leg between Real Madrid and Manchester City. While the Galactics have gone without conceding a goal three times in a row in this competition recently, the Sky Blues have too much quality and punch in our eyes for that to happen again. At the same time, we definitely trust Vinicius Jr., Benzema and Co. to consistently exploit the spaces that present themselves.