Will the Blancos stay close to Barcelona?

On Saturday, Real Madrid face a derby in the making when Madrid suburban club CD Leganés come to the Bernabéu. For the Blancos, who are now three points behind the Blaugrana since Barca’s win over Osasuna in the postponed game, only victory will do. If the tip of 1 does not work out against Leganés, the Catalans would have a great chance on Sunday against Girona at home to pull even further ahead of their arch-rival in the title race.

However, survival is also on the line for the Pepineros. The promoted team has only scored 27 points from 28 La Liga games and is therefore in a direct relegation spot. In the tight basement, however, even a point win at the Royal would be worth its weight in gold. However, the forecast for Real Madrid against Leganés is not under a good star. Of 16 duels with the Blancos, only two games went to the Madrid suburban club (two draws, twelve defeats).

Real Madrid’s home strength also speaks in favor of the Merengues. At the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, they have only lost one of 13 La Liga games in the 2024/25 season (eleven wins, one draw). No other team has scored more points at home than the Blancos (34), although they have been letting things slip recently. The Galacticos have only won three of their last seven league games (two draws, two defeats).

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

Real Madrid, as the defending champions and Spanish record champions, naturally want to win the La Liga title. When FC Barcelona experienced a dip in form in the winter and had to endure the first crisis under Hansi Flick, the Blancos were also able to pull away from their pursuers. But then the Royal Merengues also repeatedly failed to secure important victories. The white ballet only managed to get eleven out of a possible 21 points in the last seven match days.

As a result, the Merengues are now only in second place and, with ten match days remaining before the end of the season, are three points behind the Blaugrana. Not much should be left for the Galacticos to be able to step in as soon as Barca make their next mistake. However, this also puts a lot of pressure on Carlo Ancelotti’s team, who are still in the running for the Copa del Rey and the Champions League. All in all, after this home game against CD Leganés, April will see four weeks of matches.
Real Madrid are the La Liga team with the strongest home form.

The fact that the Blancos have to manage their resources as well as possible is another factor that fuels our tip that this Madrid derby will not end in too many goals. The Whites have not scored many goals in recent games. In none of their last seven competitive games have the capital city team scored more than two goals per game.

The Merengues’ enormous home strength should also help on Saturday. No other team in La Liga has won as many home games (11 of 13) or earned as many home points (34 of 39 possible) as Real Madrid. But: the twelve goals conceded at the Bernabéu only put the galacticos in fourth place for home defense. The weakened Madrilenians, who also have a constantly full hospital due to the heavy workload, were not always completely secure.

Leganés – statistics & current form

Club Deportivo Leganés returned to the top Spanish division last summer as champions of La Liga 2. The club from the Madrid suburbs would now, of course, love to establish itself here again. However, under promotion coach Borja Jiménez, this goal has currently been narrowly missed. With 27 points from 28 games played, the Pepineros are currently in 18th place – level on points with Alavés, which makes it all the more annoying that the home game against the direct competitors five weeks ago ended 3-3 despite leading twice.

In fact, the blue-and-whites have won just one of their last nine competitive games (two draws, six defeats), which means that the underdog is coming to the Bernabéu in a correspondingly weak position. The betting odds at Real Madrid against Leganés speak against the guest. Bet365 offers quotations of 17.00 for an away win by “El Lega”.

Leganés lack offensive power

In addition to their current form, the Jiménez side’s away record also speaks against them, as they have not been too keen on traveling so far. The Pepineros have only won one of their 14 La Liga away games in the 2024/25 season, but they have drawn seven times away from home – the highest number in the league. This should also be taken into consideration when placing bets, especially in combination bets, as the odds for the first betting option are not that low.

At the same time, however, “El Lega” is also stuck so far down in the table because it lacks penetration in the final third. Only bottom-placed Real Valladolid (18), who are almost certain to be relegated, and Real Sociedad and Getafe (both 25) have scored less often than Leganés (26) in the 28 matchdays of La Liga. This is also due to the fact that Sébastian Haller, whose loan was also ended prematurely in the winter, did not work at all for the Madrid suburb club. That is why the trained right winger Dani Raba is now mainly playing as a center forward, who leads the internal scoring list with just five goals.

Real Madrid – Leganés Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 12 – 2 – 2

A total of 16 meetings have taken place between the two teams and Real Madrid lead the direct comparison very clearly with twelve wins. Since a 0-1 defeat in the Copa del Rey 2018/19 – the Blancos had already won the first leg 3-0 – the Whites have not lost to CD Leganés in five consecutive matches (three wins, two draws). The first leg at the suburban club was also won 3-2.

Real Madrid – Leganés Tip

In principle, our prediction for Real Madrid v Leganés is that it won’t be a match with too many goals, especially since the visitors, who are in the relegation battle, will certainly do little for the game. A point would be worth its weight in gold for the Pepineros, who are likely to dig in at their own box. The home-strong Blancos will once again have to be patient in order to get anything out of the game, which the team has to overcome first. In four of the last seven league games, that didn’t work out, because the important victory was missing (two draws, two defeats).

In our opinion, it is therefore appropriate not to rule out the possibility of a draw, which is why we recommend the combined tip on the double chance 1X with under 3.5 goals.