Will the Blancos win at home for the first time against the Blues?
For the third year in a row, Real Madrid and Chelsea will meet in the knockout stages of the Champions League. In 2020/21, the Blues prevailed in the semi-finals and went on to win the title.
2021/22 again the Blancos triumphed in the quarter-finals and in the end also secured the overall victory. This year’s Real Madrid vs. Chelsea match is also tipped to go to the Spanish record champions.
Finally, the Londoners are currently in a deep crisis. In the Premier League, they recently lost four league games in a row (two draws, two defeats), which means that the Blues are only eleventh in the table. However, when predicting Real Madrid against Chelsea, it must also be taken into account that the Blancos do not have such a low win percentage against any other European club they have played at least five times as they do against the Pensioners (only 14.3%).
While Real Madrid have won eight of their last ten Champions League games (one draw, one defeat). However, the Blancos have never won an international home match against Chelsea in three attempts so far (one draw, two defeats). So betting on the basically favoured Spaniards also involves risks in many respects.
A very coherent alternative in our eyes is to bet that high-flyer Karim Benzema will score at least one goal. The Frenchman has scored all of his last ten Champions League goals for the Royals against English clubs – including four against today’s opponents from London.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid is not only the Spanish record champion, but also the record winner of the UEFA Champions League. Last summer, the Blancos secured their 14th overall victory in this competition, which they will try to repeat in the 2022/23 season.
The fact that the Blancos will not be able to defend their championship title is clear, at the latest after the failed dress rehearsal, when the gap between them and FC Barcelona grew even wider in the 3-2 defeat at home to Villarreal.
Still winless at home against Chelsea
In addition to the top flight, the Merengues still have the Copa del Rey to play for. With a brilliant 4-0 away win in the Clásico last Wednesday, the Galacticos made up for the 1-0 first-leg defeat and advanced to the final. They could now win their first cup in nine years against Osasuna.
At the same time, the white ballet’s main attention is now focused on the top flight, where they are looking for their first home win against the Blues at the fourth attempt. Real Madrid have not been able to win any of their three international home games against Chelsea so far (one draw, two defeats).
Does Benzema score again against the Pensioners?
Despite this, the odds are clearly in favour of Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid side against Chelsea, which is down to three factors in addition to the Blues’ lack of form. Firstly, the Blancos have always scored at least one goal in their last 30 home games in the knockout rounds of the Champions League (69 goals in total).
Secondly, the Royals have won eight of their last ten Champions League matches (one draw, one defeat). And thirdly, Karim Benzema recently scored three times again in the last 16, after the Frenchman had remained goalless in four appearances in the group stage. The 35-year-old has thus scored his last ten Champions League goals against English clubs – including four against today’s opponents from London.
Last Real Madrid games:
La Liga
09/04/2023 – Real Madrid 2 – 3 FC Villarreal
Copa del Rey
06/04/2023 – FC Barcelona 0 – 4 Real Madrid
La Liga
02/04/2023 – Real Madrid 6 – 0 Real Valladolid
20/03/2023 – FC Barcelona 2 – 1 Real Madrid
Champions League Final
16/03/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 0 Liverpool FC
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
Chelsea FC remain in the midst of a highly complicated season. After Tuchel’s successor Graham Potter was also sacked recently due to a persistent lack of success, Tuchel’s predecessor Frank Lampard has meanwhile returned to coach the Londoners.
However, the debut under the club icon went badly wrong. On Saturday, the Blues suffered a 1-0 defeat at Wolverhampton Wanderers. Not only are the Pensioners winless in four consecutive competitive games (two draws, two defeats), but they have also failed to score for 284 minutes of play.
First in Round of 16 with away defeat in first leg
While Chelsea do arrive with a promising Champions League record.
Four of the last six Champions League away matches in the knockout phase have been won (one draw, one defeat). In addition, the Londoners have the longest unbeaten streak in the competition against the current defending champions (six games; two wins, four draws).
Nevertheless, there is no momentum to speak of, which is why betting on an away win for the Blues in Real Madrid against Chelsea is not too good. After all, the last round of 16 also saw a 1-0 first-leg defeat in Dortmund before the result was turned around in the second leg.
Offensively there is still something wrong
The problem remains the Londoners’ lack of offensive punch, having scored just 29 goals in 30 league games in the Champions League – an average of less than one goal per league game.
So for the Blues to break the deadlock against the Blancos, of all people, who are defensively very stable overall, and who continue to be extremely tight under Lampard at Wolverhampton on Saturday, does not seem too likely, even in view of the fact that there have been just four wins and only 13 away goals in 15 Premier League away games in the 2022/23 season.
Last Chelsea games:
Premier League
08/04/2023 – Wolverhampton 1 – 0 Chelsea FC
05/04/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 0 Liverpool FC
01/04/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 2 Aston Villa
19/03/2023 – Chelsea FC 2 – 2 Everton
11/03/2023 – Leicester 1 – 3 Chelsea FC
Real Madrid – Chelsea Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 1 – 2 – 4
There have been seven international competitive matches between the two sides so far and with four wins, Chelsea lead the head-to-head comparison by a very clear margin. Of all the European teams Real Madrid have played at least five times, the Blancos have such a low win percentage against the Blues (only 14.3%). What’s more, the Royals are winless in three home games against the Londoners so far (one draw, two defeats).
Real Madrid – Chelsea Tip
The betting odds on Real Madrid against Chelsea are clearly in favour of the Blancos. However, the Merengues have yet to win any of their three home games against the Blues. In addition, the Londoners have not lost to the defending champions in six Champions League games (two wins, four draws). Moreover, because this competition is the Pensioners’ last chance to save the 2022/23 season, their current lack of form should not matter too much.
It is correspondingly complicated to make a prediction on the outcome of Real Madrid against Chelsea. Because the Blancos have scored in each of their 30 home games in Champions League knockout stages since April 2011 (69 goals in total), we expect a home goal again now.
The most promising bet seems to be that high-flyer Karim Benzema will score again against the Blues.
