Will Tuchel lead Bayern to the CL final?
Who will complete the Champions League final at Wembley? This question will be answered on Wednesday evening in a clash between two of the most successful soccer clubs of all time. After the interesting and, in many phases, high-class first leg, which ended in a fair 2-2 draw, Real Madrid will enjoy home advantage in the second leg against FC Bayern. This is one of the reasons why the Whites are considered to have a better chance of reaching the final
No matter which of the two top clubs ultimately prevails, history will definitely be written on the coaching benches. If successful, Carlo Ancelotti could become the first coach ever to reach the title match for the sixth (!) time, while his counterpart Thomas Tuchel would become the first coach in CL history to reach the final with three different clubs if Munich win. Currently, the predictions of the bookmakers licensed in Germany are leaning towards the newly crowned Spanish champions between Real Madrid and Bayern
Our two-footed expert for Spanish soccer, Miguel Gutierrez, also sees the Madrilenians as the favorites. You can find out what arguments he gives for this and which players he thinks will make the difference at the Santiago Bernabéu on Wednesday evening in our video preview of Real Madrid v Bayern. You’ll find suggestions for tips as well as important insider information ahead of the eagerly awaited second leg
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
As of Saturday evening, it is clear: thanks to their own 3:0 home win against Cadiz and FC Barcelona’s subsequent defeat against Girona (2:4), the Whites can no longer be displaced from first place in the table four matchdays before the end of the season. The 36th championship is therefore wrapped up. In terms of celebrations, however, the Madrilenians deliberately held back, knowing that the all-important semi-final second leg of the UEFA Champions League is on the agenda on Wednesday evening.
The Madrilenians are expected to progress
From the point of view of coach Carlo Ancelotti’s team, the starting position is very good, as the 2-2 draw at the Allianz Arena around a week ago means that a win in front of a home crowd is enough for the Whites to secure their place in the final. However, caution is advised, as Real Madrid have now gone four CL games without a win. The two most recent home games against RB Leipzig (1:1) and Manchester City (3:3) were also not victorious
In view of four consecutive draws and the fact that the record champions from Spain and Germany went toe-to-toe last Tuesday, it’s worth considering the odds on another draw ahead of Real Madrid’s second leg against Bayern. Bet365, for example, is offering 4.00 at the top for the X after 90 minutes.
Real coach Ancelotti has never lost to Bayern
At the same time, it must be said that there are plenty of reasons to see the Galactic side as having the advantage. No other team in European top-flight soccer has more experience at this top level. In addition, Carlo Ancelotti is a coach who could reach the CL final for the sixth time and is still unbeaten in his previous nine head-to-head meetings against his former club from the Isar (6-3-0). No other soccer coach has gone unbeaten against another club in the most important club competition at international level more often than Ancelotti, who is known to take a completely different approach to many of his predominantly younger coaching colleagues.
It will be interesting to see on Wednesday evening what tactical approach the home side adopt. Without a classic center forward, it has been the outstanding transitional play via the quick wingers that has characterized the Madrilenians this season. However, against a presumably deeper opponent from Munich, creative solutions are also needed without the great depth behind the back line. As the Whites will probably have to be patient against a compact FCB defense and the two teams have great respect for each other, we can well imagine predicting a low-scoring first half between Real Madrid and Bayern. We don’t believe there will be more than one goal in the first 45 minutes!
The capital side, who have suffered two defeats all season and last lost a match after 90 minutes at the end of September, will not make many changes to their line-up compared to the first leg. Only Dani Carvajal returns to the team after serving his suspension and will take his usual place on the right side of the back four. It would perhaps be conceivable to bring in a quicker central defender in Camavinga for Nacho in order to be better prepared against Munich’s counter-attacks.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Bayern – Statistics & current form
An entire season is at stake for FC Bayern on Wednesday evening. Should the Munich side actually prevail at the Santiago Bernabéu and thus punch their ticket to Wembley, Thomas Tuchel and his coaching staff would still have the opportunity to bring the disappointing 2023/24 season to a sensational end. In the meantime, it no longer even seems out of the question that the polarizing coach will remain at Säbener Straße beyond the summer after all
To what extent is the coaching discussion affecting the team?
The record champions’ search for a new coach has so far been met with a series of rejections, causing unrest within the club, but this should not affect the players during the week in the top flight. So far, Jo Kimmich and Co. have impressively managed to show a completely different face on the international stage than in the Bundesliga or the DFB Cup. After the 1-0 defeat at Lazio Rome in the first leg of the round of 16, the southern Germans have recently gone three consecutive matches without defeat, eliminated a Premier League title contender in Arsenal and proved in the first leg against Real Madrid at the Allianz Arena that they can compete with any team in Europe on a good day.
However, it should give food for thought that Tuchel’s team played at their limit last Tuesday, while the Galactic side put in a decent performance to snatch a draw from Munich. Only if the Bundesliga runners-up, who lost 3-1 at VfB Stuttgart at the weekend, manage to perform to their full potential again can FCB dream of reaching the final in London.
Will Bayern be seen as too much of an underdog in Madrid?
Despite the fact that the Whites are understandable favorites, we don’t see the starting position as hopeless, especially as Bayern can call on a number of professionals again compared to the first leg or the aforementioned defeat in Stuttgart. Musiala and Sané should return to the starting eleven, as should Mathijs de Ligt, who will replace Min-Jae Kim. The South Korean was involved in both goals conceded a week ago and is still lagging behind his form.
We expect the record champions to adopt a wait-and-see approach, as they did against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium. The defensive line is well advised not to defend too aggressively going forward in order to offer few deep target areas. If they do manage to win the ball, the Bundesliga side will have plenty of quick and dribbling players in their ranks in the shape of Sané, Musiala and perhaps even Gnabry, who could slip into the team for Müller.
Added to this is Harry Kane, probably the best finisher in the world, who incidentally only needs one more goal to draw level with Wayne Rooney at the top of the list of England’s top scorers in the Champions League. Should Kane score in regulation time on Wednesday evening, odds in the region of 2.55 are on offer at Sunmaker for the Real Madrid v Bayern clash.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
Real Madrid – Bayern head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Few matches in European top-flight soccer have captivated fans as much in recent decades as the classic Real Madrid v Bayern. This is the 28th time the clubs have faced each other in a competitive international match. With twelve wins, four draws and eleven defeats, the Whites lead the direct comparison by a whisker.
The Spaniards have not lost any of the last eight meetings (6-2-0). The Galacticos have also gone seven consecutive Champions League games without defeat at home against the German record champions (6-1-0). Munich have now gone 16 matches without a clean sheet against Real Madrid. The clubs drew a week ago. Vinicius scored a brace for Ancelotti’s side, while Kane and Sané scored for Bayern
Real Madrid – Bayern betting tip
Real Madrid and FC Bayern have faced each other seven (!) times in the Champions League and its predecessor, the European Cup. The Bundesliga club has actually reached the final more often (4x) than the Spanish record champions (3x). To extend this lead, however, Munich will need an absolute cream day at the Santiago Bernabéu on Wednesday evening. After the 2-2 draw in the first leg a week ago, when Tuchel’s side were already playing at their limit, the Whites now have the better cards in their hand with their own fans behind them.
This is also underlined by the betting odds ahead of the second leg between Real Madrid and Bayern. On the three-way market, a top price of 1.90 is offered on a home win for the Madrilenians. A surprising away win for FCB will pay out four times the stake. The same goes for a draw after regular time, which we would not necessarily rule out in advance. Real have great respect for Harry Kane and Co. In addition, Vinicius Jr. will probably be given less space than in the first leg, as coach Tuchel will set his team up more defensively
In our opinion, it is therefore quite possible that we will once again see an exciting and balanced match at a good level. However, neither team will want to take any big risks, especially in the early stages. An early deficit should be avoided at all costs.
Our preferred approach is therefore to bet that Real Madrid and Bayern will score a maximum of one goal in the first half
