Who will put the first exclamation mark on the 2022/23 season?
For the third time after 2020 and 2022, the Supercopa de España will be played on neutral ground in Saudi Arabia in a four-team tournament. The spectators at the King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh will get their money’s worth. Not only did both semi-finals go the full distance of 120 minutes plus a penalty shoot-out, but the final will also be a clásico. According to the bookmakers, the most likely result for Real Madrid against Barcelona is an overall victory for the Blaugrana.
Although FCB have not won the Supercopa de España since 2018 (2-1 against Sevilla), they are still the record winners in this competition with 13 overall victories. However, should the Catalans now succumb to their arch-rivals, the Blancos would not only draw level with their 13th overall win as well, but also successfully defend their Supercopa title for the first time since 1990. The forecast for Real Madrid against Barcelona is correspondingly tight.
There are some valid arguments in favour of both teams. While the fact that Real Madrid won the last Clásico in October with 3:1 speaks for Real Madrid, the only six goals conceded in 16 La Liga games so far speak for the Catalans. The Supercopa de España final is likely to be correspondingly close.
In our opinion, there is a lot of value in betting on less than 2.5 goals being scored in normal time. After all, the semi-finals between Real Madrid and Valencia and between Barcelona and Real Betis were already 1-1 after 90 minutes.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid are demonstrably the most successful football club in the world in terms of numbers and could now reach a real milestone in Saudi Arabia. Should the Blancos secure their 13th overall Supercopa de España victory, it would be the 100th title the Madrilenians have won in their club’s history.
It would also be the Merengues’ first title defence in the competition since 1990, following their 2-0 triumph over Athletic Bilbao in last year’s Supercopa, which was also played at the King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh.
Three points behind Barcelona in league play
The reigning national champions, however, did not cover themselves with too much glory on their way to the final. After suffering a 2-1 defeat at Villarreal in La Liga last Saturday before departing for Saudi Arabia, the Blancos could not go beyond a 1-1 draw against Valencia.
But with the better nerves in the penalty shoot-out, they still managed to reach the final, where they will also have to send a signal to Catalonia regarding the national championship. Despite winning the Clásico in October, the Merengues are currently three points behind the Blaugrana
The best offence in La Liga
While Real Madrid have the most potent attack in La Liga with 36 goals, they have suffered two defeats in their last four league games. Against this background, bettors also see the Blancos at a slight disadvantage. The betting odds on Real Madrid against Barcelona are slightly in favour of the Blaugrana.
However, at least the Supercopa record is back in favour of the Merengues, who have won nine of their 15 meetings with the Catalans in this competition (two draws, four defeats) and last won 5-1 in the old format in the 2017 final.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois – Fernández – Rüdiger – Militao – Vázquez – Camavinga – Kroos – Valverde – Júnior – Rodrygo – Benzema
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
Super Cup
12/01/2023 – Real Madrid (4)1 – 1(3) Valencia
La Liga
07/01/2023 – Villarreal FC 2 – 1 Real Madrid
Copa del Rey
04/01/2023 – Cacereno 0 – 1 Real Madrid
La Liga
31/12/2022 – Real Valladolid 0 – 2 Real Madrid
11/11/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 1 Cadiz
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
Although FC Barcelona can look back on an equally raucous collection of trophies, having won a total of 97, they are the sole record winners of both the Copa del Rey (31 titles) and the Supercopa de España (13 overall victories). In the 2021/22 season, however, the Blaugrana remained without a title.
The financially strapped club’s transfer offensive in the summer was correspondingly large, with major risks being taken as is well known. Now the Catalans could reward themselves in Saudi Arabia with their first title under coach Xavi.
By far the best defence in La Liga
The FCB’s run to the Supercopa final was also a rocky one. Against defensively very compact Andalusians, the offensive department struggled for a long time, so that Real Betis and Barcelona also went into extra time and ultimately into a penalty shoot-out.
However, if one disregards the disappointing exit in the Champions League preliminary round, the 2022/23 season can still be considered a success at national level. In La Liga, only the Clásico against the Blancos was lost. From the other 15 league games, Barca picked up an official 41 points out of a possible 45, conceding just three goals in total.
Only scored one goal in regulation time in three of their last four competitive matches
With a three-point lead, the Blaugrana are currently in first place in La Liga and are now looking not only to snatch the winner’s trophy from their main rivals and arch-rivals, but also to put an exclamation mark on the second half of the season.
For the title to be won, however, the Xavi team will not only have to be more secure defensively than in the semi-final against the Verdiblancos, where it was ultimately thanks to a strong ter Stegen that “only” two goals were conceded in 120 minutes. The Blaugrana also need to do more offensively, as they have only scored one goal in regulation time in three of their four competitive matches since the re-start after the World Cup break, which in turn favours our tip of less than 2.5 goals for Real Madrid against Barcelona.
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
ter Stegen – Alba – Koundé – Araújo – Roberto – de Jong – Pedri – Gavi – Dembélé – Raphinha – Lewandowski
Last matches played by Barcelona:
Super Cup
13/01/2023 – Real Betis (2)2 – 2(4) FC Barcelona
La Liga
09/01/2023 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
Copa del Rey
05/01/2023 – CF Intercity 3 – 4 FC Barcelona
La Liga
31/12/2022 – FC Barcelona 1 – 1 Espanyol
09/11/2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 1 – 2 FC Barcelona
Real Madrid – Barcelona Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 105 – 62 – 117
The Clásico between Real Madrid and Barcelona has taken place a total of 284 times so far and the Blaugrana lead the direct comparison with 117 victories. The last clash between the two heavyweights so far took place on 16 October 2022 in La Liga. At the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, the Blancos beat the Blaugrana 3-1 in a commanding victory.
Real Madrid – Barcelona Tip
There are several points in favour of both teams in this eagerly awaited final of the 2023 Supercopa de España, which makes it very difficult to predict the outcome of Real Madrid vs Barcelona. In any case, neither team really covered themselves in glory in the semi-final, which in both cases was only decided in a penalty shoot-out.
Also because the match plays an important role for the further course in La Liga, we expect both teams to be cautious. In this context, there is a lot to be said for a maximum of two goals in normal time.
