Will Real push their arch-rivals into a downward spiral?
For the third time this season, “El Clásico” will take place on a must-win level. While Real Madrid (in La Liga) and FC Barcelona (in the Supercopa) each came out on top once in their first two encounters, the rival greats of Spanish football will now meet in the Copa del Rey.
The clash, which kicks off at the Estadio Santiago de Bernabeu on Thursday evening at 21:00, is the semi-final first leg. The second leg at the Camp Nou will be played at the beginning of April.
In view of the fact that there will be no final decision in the first 90 minutes, it is not expected that we will see many goals. Both teams want to book their ticket to the final, knowing that Osasuna or Athletic Bilbao would definitely be a feasible opponent. Therefore, the first tendency is to bet on a low-scoring first leg between Real Madrid and Barcelona
The question of momentum, however, is not so easy to answer. While the Royals made a real statement with their 5-2 win at Liverpool FC in the top flight, the Catalans first failed to beat Manchester United in the Europa League and then also lost the La Liga match in Almeria.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
There’s been a lot of fire under the roof at Real Madrid since Monday night. What happened? Because David Alaba, in his role as captain of the Austrian national team, was asked to choose his world footballer but did not choose his teammate Karim Benzema, the former Bayern star was heavily criticised on social media. With the hashtag AlabaOut, many fans even demanded the immediate departure of the defender, who is currently absent due to injury.
But since Alaba has since appeased, praised the exceptional French striker only in the highest terms and explained that the entire Austrian team council had voted, this media-pushed team is unlikely to play any role at all inside the Galactic’s dressing room. In any case, there is no time for sideshows, as just a few days after the 1-1 draw at home to Atletico Madrid in the city derby, “El Clásico” in the Spanish King’s Cup is already on the agenda.
Will Real finally convince in the King’s Cup?
With the Madrilenians still seven points behind in La Liga and thus potentially falling behind in the battle to defend their title, the focus is now all the more on the Champions League and the Copa del Rey.
It is precisely in the latter competition that the “white ballet” has fallen well short of its own expectations in recent years. In 2014, the trophy was raised to the sky for the last time. In the past eight seasons, they have only reached the semi-finals once. The royals have also had to struggle in the tournament so far. Against the underclass team Cacereno (1:0) they had a narrow victory as well as against Villarreal (3:2). In the quarter-final against Atletico Madrid, the game even went into extra time.
Real’s defence has improved recently
Whoever dares to play the odds on a home win in the semi-final first leg between Real Madrid and Barcelona on Thursday evening can, possibly taking into account the risk-reducing free bets, bet on the team of coach Carlo Ancelotti to win by exactly one goal. In the event of success, almost four times the stake would be returned.
Even more interesting, however, is a potential bet on few goals being scored. In six of the last seven La Liga matches, the under 2.5 would have gone through. In five of their last six league matches, they have scored zero goals defensively. The Madrilenians, who are still unbeaten at home on a national level, have only conceded a total of eight goals in eleven home matches.
Expected Real Madrid line-up:
No information available.
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
La Liga
26/02/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 1 Atletico Madrid
Champions League Final
22/02/2023 – Liverpool FC 2 – 5 Real Madrid
La Liga
19/02/2023 – Osasuna Pamplona 0 – 2 Real Madrid
16/02/2023 – Real Madrid 4 – 0 Elche
Cup for clubs
12/02/2023 – Real Madrid 5 – 3 Al Hilal
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
The sting of the early Europa League exit against Manchester United continues to run extremely deep for FC Barcelona. So deep, in fact, that the Catalans had to deal with the next setback in the league at the weekend. The Xavi team surprisingly lost 1-0 at Almeria and thus conceded only their second defeat in the 24th match of the current season in La Liga. The Blaugrana had previously gone 13 games without defeat in the Spanish top flight.
It will be exciting to see whether the two defeats in a row mark the beginning of a downward spiral or can merely be seen as a slip-up. If we look at the odds before the Copa semi-final first leg between Real Madrid and Barcelona, the best bookmakers even expect Robert Lewandowski and Co. to leave the pitch as losers for the third time in a row.
Barcelona still the measure of all things defensively
This thesis is certainly daring, because all in all, the star ensemble from the art metropolis is playing a very good season at national level. Especially defensively, the back line around German goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen usually leaves nothing to be desired. Eight goals conceded in 23 league games are impressive proof of this, as are the 17 clean sheets. In the cup competition, too, the Blue and Reds have kept their clean sheet in each of their two most recent encounters.
These outstanding defensive values naturally serve as a veritable argument to justify a forecast of few goals before the “Clásico” Real Madrid against Barcelona. In nine of the last twelve La Liga games, for example, a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through. The last time more than three goals were scored in a clash with a Spanish first division team was in mid-October.
Since we do not necessarily expect the Xavi eleven to take too many risks and risk conceding early goals after the recent failures and against the background that the Catalans have to play in Madrid, we would also refrain from betting on an away win. We don’t need it, because the return match will take place in front of a home crowd at the beginning of April. Even a draw would be a very good starting position from the point of view of the La Liga leaders.
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
No information at hand.
Last games played by Barcelona:
La Liga
27/02/2023 – Almeria 1 – 0 FC Barcelona
Europa League Final Stage
24/02/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 1 FC Barcelona
La Liga
20/02/2023 – FC Barcelona 2 – 0 Cadiz
Europa League Final Stage
17/02/2023 – FC Barcelona 2 – 2 Manchester United
La Liga
13/02/2023 – FC Villarreal 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
Real Madrid – Barcelona Direct comparison / H2H balance
These two hate rivals are already playing their 36th match in the Spanish King’s Cup this week. On 15 occasions, FC Barcelona have left the pitch as winners, while Real Madrid have come out on top on 12 occasions. The last time the giants met in this competition was in 2018/19. After a 1-1 draw in the first leg, the Catalans won 3-0 in the second leg at the Santiago de Bernabeu to book their ticket to the final.
There have also been two direct duels in the current season. In the league, Real Madrid won surprisingly clearly at home with 3:1. Barcelona also took revenge in the Supercopa final with a 3:1 victory. We don’t expect that many goals on Thursday, though!
Real Madrid – Barcelona Tip
Because the term “defence” and its forms have been used almost inflationary in the previous paragraphs, it becomes clear relatively quickly in which direction our Real Madrid vs Barcelona tip for Thursday evening goes.
There is much to suggest that we will see few goals in the eagerly awaited “El Clásico” in the Copa del Rey semi-final first leg. Both teams have excellent defences at national level. Six of Real’s most recent seven league games have ended with the under 2.5; Barca, meanwhile, boast 17 clean sheets and have conceded just eight goals in 23 La Liga matches.
Because there is a lot at stake and the derby character hangs over this constellation like a sword of Damocles, we have identified the most appealing value between Real Madrid and Barcelona in the betting odds on the under 2.5.
The top odds are 1.95 and we recommend a medium stake of five units. Alternatively, you can bet on the combined bet 1X & under 3.5 as well as on a goalless first half, for example, which we do not consider impossible in view of the last impressions.
