Is it the next Madrid city thriller?
The Spanish capital derby will once again electrify the masses on Saturday evening. While Atletico Madrid have been condemned to spectators in the Champions League round of 16, the royals go into the La Liga top match of matchday 23 with a lot of tailwind. On Tuesday, coach Carlo Ancelotti’s side came from 2-0 down to win 5-2 at Anfield Road, meaning they have one and a half legs into the quarter-finals.
A completely different game awaits the current second-placed team in the Spanish top flight this weekend. In view of the Rojiblancos’ defensive strength, a goal spectacle cannot necessarily be assumed. There is therefore a lot to suggest that betting on a rather low number of goals will pay off before the Real Madrid vs.
The favourites, however, are the home side, who are now eight points behind FC Barcelona in the La Liga title race and cannot afford to slip up again.
Simeone’s team will not lack motivation, however, as the Colchoneros not only lost the first leg 2-1 in front of their home crowd, but also lost out in the quarter-finals of the Spanish Cup only after extra time. So it’s only natural to predict a competitive match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid on Saturday as well.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
One thing is as certain as the Amen in the church and that Rosenmontag always falls on a Monday: when Real Madrid have to deliver in the European Cup, they deliver. After the already mentioned false start on Tuesday evening and two absolutely avoidable goals conceded to go 2-0 down, the Galactics played themselves into a real frenzy at times and thus took Anfield Road. In the end, it was 5:2 for the white ballet, which is preparing to defend the trophy from last year.
However, there is still a long way to go. And even in the domestic league, coach Carlo Ancelotti’s team would be well advised not to let the gap to Barcelona grow even wider. Against this background, the city derby in front of a home crowd has immense significance. Especially because Karim Benzema and Co. have already made a few mistakes at national level in the football year 2023.
Will Real go without conceding a goal at home for the fourth time in a row?
Only four of the seven league games in the new year were victorious. Among others, there were defeats in Mallorca and at Villarreal. At home, however, the star ensemble from the capital is much more consistent and stable. In ten home games, Real celebrated seven wins and three draws.
Only seven goals conceded correspond to the second-best value in a league comparison. Three times in a row, the royals have not conceded a goal in their own stadium. In fact, five clean sheets in the last six league games symbolise the regained compactness in the game against the ball. This will also be important on Saturday.
It is to be expected that the hosts will have a lot of possession and will have to pay attention first and foremost to a good remaining defence. If this succeeds, the odds on the home win between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid seem to promise a respectable value with few goals in the course of the game. Tuesday’s 5-2 win has no relevance in that the circumstances surrounding this derby between two rivals are of course quite different. In terms of personnel, Carlo Ancelotti will definitely have to do without Alaba and Rodrygo, who were injured on the island and will be out.
Last matches of Real Madrid:
Champions League Final
22/02/2023 – Liverpool FC 2 – 5 Real Madrid
La Liga
19/02/2023 – Osasuna Pamplona 0 – 2 Real Madrid
16/02/2023 – Real Madrid 4 – 0 Elche
WM for clubs
12/02/2023 – Real Madrid 5 – 3 Al Hilal
09/02/2023 – Al Ahly SC 1 – 4 Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Atletico Madrid finished bottom of their group in the Champions League, finished in the quarter-finals of the Copa del Rey and have already lost their chance of winning the league title. Of course, for the ambitious coach Diego Simeone, it is now all about winning one of the four direct tickets for the 2023/24 top flight. However, the remaining highlight matches are at least as important for the Argentine. Especially the one against the city rivals.
The Colchoneros will go into the match at the Estadio Santiago de Bernabeu with a lot of self-confidence. Recently, things have been going really well for the eleven-time Spanish champions in La Liga. They have picked up 13 of a possible 15 points in their last five games. Only at home against Getafe did the Red and Whites have to settle for a 1-1 draw. Fourth in the table, they are only two points behind third-placed Real Sociedad.
Atletico have not conceded two goals in a game since the end of October
Especially away from home, one should by no means make the mistake of underestimating the Rojiblancos. They have won seven of their eleven away games. With seven goals conceded, the Simeone team has the second-best away defence behind leaders Barcelona. They have kept their clean sheet in six La Liga away games. In eight out of eleven cases, the bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through.
In general, it is usually a good approach to bet on few goals with the defensive specialists around world-class keeper Jan Oblak. Especially in recent weeks, there have not been many goals in the league matches with Atletico. In nine of the last ten La Liga matches, the ball crossed the goal line no more than twice.
Incidentally, more than three goals were scored in only two of the 22 matches between the “mattress makers”. Those who are therefore not willing to go for the Under 2.5 can venture a prediction on the 1X in combination with the Under 3.5 in the city duel Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid. However, the absence of world champion Rodrigo de Paul weighs heavily. Instead, defender Savic returns to the team after an expired ban.
Last matches of Atletico Madrid:
La Liga
20/02/2023 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
12/02/2023 – Celta Vigo 0 – 1 Atletico Madrid
05/02/2023 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 1 Getafe
29/01/2023 – Osasuna Pamplona 0 – 1 Atletico Madrid
Copa del Rey
27/01/2023 – Real Madrid 3 – 1 Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid Direct comparison / H2H record
This is the third time the capital rivals have faced each other in a competitive match this season. In the first leg in La Liga, Real narrowly prevailed 2-1 away from home. In the quarter-finals of the Spanish King’s Cup, the score went into extra time at 1-1, before the Royals won 3-1 after 120 minutes.
The Colchoneros have only won one match in the past 13 league matches. The last time the Red and Whites won at the Estadio Santiago de Bernabeu was in 2016. Even more striking, however, are the regularly low-scoring encounters between these teams. In ten of the last twelve direct La Liga duels, the mark of more than two goals was not broken.
Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid Tip
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid. Carlo Ancelotti vs Diego Simeone. Karim Benzema against Antoine Griezmann. The Madrid capital derby writes many stories. On Saturday evening, the rivals will once again be in hot water. In any case, we expect a competitive, close game between two teams that have been able to build up confidence in their own special way lately.
The Royals are flying on a wave of happiness after their 5-2 win in Liverpool, while the Rojiblancos, on the other hand, have found their way back to winning ways with hard work and narrow victories as well as few goals conceded. Nevertheless, Real Madrid are seen quite clearly ahead against Atletico Madrid according to betting odds. No wonder, as the Colchoneros have only won one of the past 13 duels at league level.
We therefore adjust our betting odds between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid to the circumstances and statistics mentioned and combine the double chance 1X with the Under 3.5.
