Derbi Madrileño: Real can take big step towards title

City derby time! Matchday 17 in Spain’s La Liga sees the first Derbi Madrileño of the season, the Madrid city derby between top teams Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.

Sunday evening at 9pm, the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu will be the venue for the action between the two arch-rivals – with the pressure clearly on the side of the visitors from Madrid’s red and white district.

As a glance at the La Liga table reveals, Real Madrid are running a lonely circle at the top of the table. Champions Atletico are only fourth and already ten points behind their city rivals. A home win for the Blancos would be tantamount to a small preliminary decision in the title race. Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid is also a good bet with good odds.

In view of the table situation, the home advantage and also the current form, the home side is unsurprisingly favoured in the derby; the odds of the various betting providers with a German licence also make this clear in the case of Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid.

However, one can expect a very competitive and close derby, in which Atletico can be expected to do something – after all, Atletico was able to boost its self-confidence during the week.

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

Self-confidence is something that Real Madrid have above all at the moment. The Madrilenians have won six games in a row in La Liga and nine in a row in the competition. The last three of these victories were even by nil.

They won the final match for the Champions League Group D title against Inter Milan 2:0, and before that they achieved the same result last weekend in the La Liga top match in San Sebastian against Real Sociedad, who were third in the standings up to that point. And the other top match against Sevilla FC was also victorious, with Real Madrid beating the Andalusians 2-1 at home in the Bernabeu.

Three important top matches, three victories – no wonder that Real Madrid are currently brimming with self-confidence and on course for the championship. The Madrilenians already have an eight-point lead over second-placed Sevilla and a ten-point lead over Atletico – even though both of their rivals still have a game in hand.

Strong winning streak: Favourites Real Madrid with interesting odds

In view of this winning streak, betting on the next Real victory in Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid is naturally obvious. Especially because such a win seems very interesting when you look at the betting odds before the derby between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. On average, the best betting providers offer 2.11 on a home win for the Blancos.

Although there is always a 0-0 draw between the teams, and this result has been achieved three times in the last ten matches, you can expect goals – on both sides. Even though Real have won three times to nil, goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois’ back line is rarely really solid. Time and again, the Belgian has to intervene in the most urgent situations and save points and victories for his team.

We think: If the three-way is too tricky, you should take a look at both teams meet, as we consider the odds of 1.80 on Real Madrid against Atletico, which Bet365 has on offer, very interesting.

Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois – Carvajal, Militao, Alaba, Mendy – Casemiro, Modric, Kroos – Rodrygo, Jovic, Vinicius Jr.

Last matches played by Real Madrid:

Champions League Grp. D
12/07 2021 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Inter Milan

LaLiga
12/04 2021 – San Sebastian 0 – 2 Real Madrid

12/01 2021 – Real Madrid 1 – 0 Athletic Bilbao

11/28 2021 – Real Madrid 2 – 1 Sevilla

Champions League Grp. D
11/24 2021 – FC Sheriff 0 – 3 Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form

The fact that Atletico Madrid, the reigning champions in Spain, are clear underdogs is simply due to their fluctuating performances of late. The Rojiblancos have not been consistent in their performances so far, and there is no real explanation for this.

Particularly shocking was Atletico’s surprising home defeat against promoted RCD Mallorca on the last matchday: After taking the lead, the champions conceded a late 2-1, which no one could have expected. But Atletico have digested this defeat well, because in the group final at FC Porto, the big liberation was achieved. The pressure on Atletico was enormous, as the Rojiblancos had to win at all costs in order to reach the last 16.

The dramatic and hard-fought 3:1 victory in Porto was therefore a real liberation. “I’m proud of this team,” declared Antoine Griezmann proudly, “This is Atleti. This game is the summary of the group stage.” In the group stage, Atletico progressed by the skin of their teeth after another unsteady and rarely convincing performance – similar to what was often seen in La Liga.
In Spain’s elite league, too, Atletico are constantly struggling, as only eight wins from 15 games show (five draws, two defeats). What Atletico have shown so far is certainly not masterly. And yet the heroic progress to the CL should provide the necessary impetus to take something with them to the Bernabeu.

After all, the league record at the Bernabeu is anything but bad: In the last ten matches at Real, there have been three away wins, three draws and four defeats.  So it may be worthwhile to consider the double chance X2 in the prediction for Real Madrid vs.

Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak – Kondogbia, Felipe, Hermoso – Llorente, Lemar, Koke, de Paul, Carrasco – Griezmann, Correa

Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:

Champions League Grp. B
12/07 2021 – FC Porto 1 – 3 Atletico Madrid

LaLiga
12/04 2021 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Mallorca

11/28 2021 – Cadiz 1 – 4 Atletico Madrid

Champions League Grp. B
11/24 2021 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 1 AC Milan

LaLiga
11/20 2021 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 0 Osasuna Pamplona

Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid Tip

Atletico Madrid’s last derby win at the Bernabeu was a couple of years ago though, with the Rojiblancos winning 1-0 at the Bernabeu in February 2016. Since then, there have been three draws and two defeats at the city rivals.

Another win at the Bernabeu would be enormously important in the fight to defend the title – after all, the gap to Real Madrid is already considerable after just 16 games. With a ten-point deficit, the pressure is clearly on the visitors.

However, as they are without attacker Luis Suarez due to injury, and especially as Real Madrid are in really good form at the moment, we don’t believe in a win for the visitors. However, we don’t believe in Real’s next win either, because Atletico knows the importance of the match and travels to the Bernabeu with self-confidence from the CL. Therefore, before the city derby between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, our prediction is: The Derbi Madrileño will end in a draw