Will the Blancos defend their lead in the derby?
On September 24, 2023, Real Madrid suffered a 3-1 defeat away to city rivals Atletico Madrid in La Liga, which left the Spanish record champions in a very bad way. What followed, however, was typical of the Whites. The Blancos remained unbeaten in 16 consecutive league games (13 wins, three draws), which means they are back in first place in the table. However, if Real Madrid win again against Atletico Madrid, the Colchoneros’ lead in the table could be over again
The “El Derbi Madrileño” will be played for the third time in the 2024 calendar year on February 4, 2024. The two city rivals first met in the semi-finals of the Supercopa de Espana, which the Blancos won 5:3 after extra time, before the Rojiblancos returned the favor just eight days later in the Copa del Rey, knocking Real out of the competition 4:2 after extra time. This means that Real Madrid’s prediction of a home win against Atletico Madrid is by no means a foregone conclusion
It should be noted that Real Madrid have only lost two of the last 16 Madrid derbies against Atletico in La Liga (six wins, eight draws) and last lost to their city rivals in a point match at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu nine years ago. However, the visitors travel to the game in very good form. The Rojiblancos have won their last five competitive games in a row, scoring 10 goals to 3.
In our eyes, it is therefore very smart to avoid the three-way system in the 236th edition of “El Derbi Madrileño”. In view of the two very high-scoring duels in January, the bet that both teams will score once again is very popular. After all, Real Madrid are facing quite a personnel puzzle defensively after Antonio Rüdiger was injured in the recent 2-0 win at Getafe and Aurélien Tchouaméni is suspended
Real Madrid – statistics & current form
Real Madrid Club de Fútbol won the Copa del Rey for the first time in nine years in the 2022/23 season, which even long-standing players such as Toni Kroos had yet to add to their collection of titles. However, no further titles were won in the league or the Champions League.
Accordingly, the Spanish record champions have set their sights high for the new season, in which they suffered a serious setback relatively early on with a 3-1 defeat at Atletico Madrid on matchday six. This result saw the Blancos slip to third place in the table
Real Madrid have not lost a league game since September
16 matchdays later, however, the old order has been restored. In fact, the Merengues have not lost a single one of their subsequent 16 league games (13 wins, three draws) since losing the derby in the first leg at the end of September.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side’s impressive haul of 42 points out of a possible 46 recently lifted them back to first place in the table. They are already ten points clear of Atletico Madrid and FC Barcelona
Who will defend for Real Madrid alongside Nacho?
It would be all the more important for the Whites to win at home to Real Madrid against Atletico Madrid to defend their lead at the top of the table six days before the showdown with Girona. In any case, the home record clearly favors the Whites, who have picked up 28 out of a possible 30 points at home and conceded just six goals in ten La Liga home games.
However, the fact that Antonio Rüdiger, the third central defender after Éder Militao and David Alaba, was injured in the recent 2-0 win at Getafe is problematic. In addition to Nacho Fernández, Aurélien Tchouaméni also defended, but was then shown a fifth yellow card and will also not be available for the derby. Carlo Ancelotti therefore faces a highly complicated personnel puzzle in central defense.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Atletico Madrid enjoyed a 3-1 win in the first leg, but have since lost some ground in La Liga. Their haul of 47 points out of a possible 66 is not bad, but is currently only enough for third place. The Colchoneros are already ten points behind their city rivals.
Nevertheless, the Rojiblancos are not only still in the Champions League, where last year’s finalists Inter Milan await in the round of 16 after winning the preliminary round, but have also reached the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey thanks to a derby win against Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid left too much to chance, especially away from home
Diego Simeone’s side could still play a role in the race for the national championship if the Colchoneros’ home strength could have been transferred to their away games more often.
Their impressive haul of 34 out of a possible 36 points from twelve La Liga home games contrasts with five defeats from ten league games away from home (four wins, one draw). This leaves Atletico Madrid in seventh place in the away table
Atletico Madrid go into the city derby in good form
The odds are now also against Real Madrid beating Atletico Madrid, but the Rojiblancos will at least arrive at the nearby Estadio Santiago Bernabéu with plenty of confidence. Simeone’s side have won all of their last five competitive games in a row, scoring 10 goals to 3.
What’s more, the Colchoneros still know how to defend. Only Real Madrid (14), Bilbao and Real Sociedad (21 each) have conceded fewer than 24 goals in 22 league games.
Predicted line-up for Atletico Madrid:
Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 116 – 60 – 59
El Derbi Madrileño has already been played 235 times and Real Madrid still lead the way in the Madrid city derby with 116 wins. The Blancos have only been beaten twice in the last 16 meetings in La Liga (six wins, eight draws), but not only have they lost the first leg 3-1, they also lost 4-2 to Atletico Madrid after extra time in the Copa del Rey on January 18, 2023
Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid betting tip
The betting odds for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid are clearly in favor of the Blancos. However, it should be noted that Carlo Ancelotti only has one full-back at his disposal, which is why, as in the two duels in January, this clash could also be quite high-scoring in “El Derbi Madrileño”. In principle, we also see the home and in-form Blancos as having the advantage, but due to the low prices offered for betting tip 1, we cannot see any value in betting on a home win
It makes sense to predict that both city rivals will meet at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in this Sunday evening match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. In the three derbies so far in the 2023/24 season, at least four goals have always been scored in regulation time
