Will Bilbao still make it to Europe?

On the last matchday of the highest Spanish division, Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao will meet. This duel should bring a lot of excitement, because the royals want to finish the season ahead of their city rivals Atletico Madrid. The visitors, however, need the three points even more urgently, because on matchday 38, four teams are still fighting for a place in the Conference League. For this reason, the bookmakers’ betting odds between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao are also quite close.

After the bitter defeat in the semi-final of the Champions League against Manchester City, Real Madrid also lost the following match in the league. Recently, however, the Madrilenians were able to win two games in a row and thus get back on track. Especially the win against Sevilla FC, now Europa League champions, was a step in the right direction. Now Real Madrid would like to say goodbye to the summer break with a three-goal win at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Bilbao had it in their own hands several times in recent weeks to secure seventh place early on. However, Ernesto Valverde’s team has won only one of its last seven league games and is now under a lot of pressure. ACB’s only win came at home against Celta Vigo, who are of course on a completely different level to Real Madrid. In Madrid, a three-goal win is almost mandatory in the fight for Europe, because the rivals are very unlikely to all go down at the same time.

We are leaning towards a win for the home side between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao. The royals have a respectable record at the Santiago Bernabeu and have been in much better form of late. It’s a different story for the visitors, who have only won one of their last seven games and the pressure seems to be too high. Moreover, the Basques already lost to the Royals in the first half of the season, and that at their own stadium.

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

Real Madrid are in second place in La Liga and already had to cede the championship title to FC Barcelona a few weeks ago. Carlo Ancelotti’s team picked up 77 points from 37 games and is thus eleven points behind the Catalans. But even the runners-up spot is not yet set in stone, because Atletico Madrid have only one point less on their account and could still overtake them. Therefore, a win against Bilbao is especially important in the wake of the rivalry.

The Bernabeu is a fortress

The Royals are also second in the home table, picking up 43 points from 18 home games. Carlo Ancelotti’s team lost only one home game and that was against FC Villarreal on matchday 28.

With a goal difference of 43:15, the dominance at the Santiago Bernabeu is further underlined and therefore the chances of victory in the duel with Athletic Bilbao are very good. The championship was clearly lost away from home, as Real Madrid lost a total of seven games away from home.

The best attack in La Liga

The hosts have scored 74 goals in 37 games this season, making them the best attacking line-up in the Spanish top flight. In addition, Carlo Ancelotti’s team have only gone four times without scoring a goal of their own and therefore a goal success on the last matchday seems pretty certain.

The top scorer in the Real Madrid team is Karim Benzema with 30 goals. However, there is currently a lot of fuss about the centre-forward, because an offer from Saudi Arabia has made the Frenchman think twice. He has an offer of 100 million euros per season on the table and at the moment it looks like he is leaving.

The defence as a small weak point

The home side have conceded 35 goals this season, which puts them in fourth place league-wide. However, they have only managed to keep a clean sheet 13 times, conceding at least one goal in 65 per cent of their matches. For this reason, Real Madrid will upgrade in the summer. High-calibre players such as Jude Bellingham, Theo Hernandez, Benjamin Pavard, Alphonso Davies, Joska Gvardiol and Jeremy Frimpong are currently being talked about.

Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form

Athletic Bilbao are seventh in the Spanish top flight and would not be eligible to play in the Conference League qualifying round. This is because in the event of a points tie, the direct comparison is decisive and that goes to Osasuna. With Girona and Rayo Vallecano, two other teams with 49 points each are waiting for the Basques to slip up. In a best-case scenario, the visitors should take a three-pointer from Madrid in order to be represented internationally in the coming season.

The solid away record

The Basques are also seventh in the away table, picking up 23 points from 18 away games. However, their record is not outstanding, as Bilbao have only managed to win 33 per cent of their away games and thus face a mammoth task in Madrid.

In addition, Ernesto Valverde’s team has a negative goal ratio away from home and allows too many goal chances. Furthermore, Athletic Bilbao have lost all of their last three games on foreign soil and will therefore not be brimming with confidence.

Lately with a lack of goals

The visitors have scored just four goals in their last seven league games, going scoreless on four occasions. However, with 46 goals in 37 games, Ernesto Valverde’s attack is not one of the best in La Liga anyway. Even Espanyol Barcelona, who have already been relegated, found their way into the opponent’s goal more often this season.

The two bright spots in the offensive are clearly the Inaki brothers. The two attackers have a combined 20 goals and eleven assists this season and have been directly involved in the majority of Athletic Bilbao’s goals.

The defence is compact

The defence of Athletic Bilbao is clearly the strength of the Basques, as Ernesto Valverde’s team conceded only 42 goals this season. In 37 games, that amounts to an average of only 1.13 goals conceded per game. In addition, the visitors have been able to keep a clean sheet eleven times and are one of the top teams in this category. This is also reflected in the individual statistics of Unai Simon, who has to save an average of only 2.3 balls.

Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao Direct comparison / H2H balance

The direct comparison between the two teams goes to the royals, of course. Real Madrid have won 107 matches against Bilbao, while 36 games have ended in a draw and the visitors are on 63 wins. The visiting team last won in La Liga against the Madrilenians in 2015 and have thus been waiting for a three-pointer for 15 league games. For this reason, our prediction between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao goes in the direction of the home side.

Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao Tip

We play the tip on “Both teams score – yes” between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao. The Madrilenians are quite rightly favoured in their own stadium and will also win this game in our estimation. For the visitors, however, there is a lot at stake and therefore we expect a courageous performance from Ernesto Valverde’s team. Even a draw would not help the visiting team and therefore at least a goal from Bilbao does not seem unlikely.

Alternatively, between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, the odds for Over 2.5 goals in the match are interesting. There is still a lot at stake for both teams on the last matchday and therefore the teams will not give each other anything. Afterwards, it’s time for the summer break, so the players will give their all once again.