Will the Blancos crack the Basque concrete defence?
Real Madrid haven’t lost since a used week that included a 2-1 home defeat to Sheriff Tiraspol before also losing 2-1 away at Espanyol Barcelona in La Liga. In fact, the Blancos have won eight of their last nine competitive games (one draw), recently taking over the top spot in La Liga.
The Merengues could now extend their lead to seven points with a home win over the Basques in the second leg. In the run-up to the encounter between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, the odds are clearly in favour of the Spanish record champions, who are unbeaten in La Liga for twelve encounters with the Leones.
However, Athletic Bilbao will be travelling to the tournament with high ambitions. The Basques have not lost 12 of their last 14 league games and have usually sold themselves quite dearly away from home. Six of the last seven away games ended in a draw. The reason why the Leones are so difficult to beat is to be found in their defensive stability. With only ten goals conceded, the Basques have the best defence in La Liga.
The Blancos, who also play a leading role in the La Liga Champions 2022 forecast, are clearly favoured. However, we find the greatest value in betting on Real Madrid against Athletic Bilbao with less than 2.5 goals.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid have won the Spanish national championship 34 times. The last time the Blancos, who are not only the Spanish record champions but also the record Champions League winners, stood at the top was in the summer of 2020.
After finishing runners-up behind city rivals Atlético Madrid, there is currently a lot to suggest that the return of Carlo Ancelotti will result in another big win this season. With 33 points out of a possible 42, the Merengues are leading the table.
Is Real Madrid catching up with the competition?
If the Galacticos manage to win another game in the catch-up game, Real Madrid would already be seven points ahead of their current main rivals Real Sociedad. Meanwhile, things are also going well internationally for the 13-time Champions League winners.
In the top flight, they suffered a surprising 2-1 home defeat against football dwarf Sheriff Tiraspol. But the other four games in Group D were all won, which means that it is already clear before the final showdown with Inter Milan that the white ballet will reach the knockout phase.
Karim Benzema and Vinícius Júnior as faces of the resurgence
In addition to Karim Benzema, who has been involved in 18 of the 34 league goals with eleven goals and seven assists, Vinícius Júnior in particular has flourished under Carlo Ancelotti. The 21-year-old has already scored nine goals and just scored the golden winner in the 87th minute of Sunday’s 2-1 home win over Sevilla to turn the game around for the Blancos.
The Spanish record champions will go into the post-match game against the defensively strong Basques with a correspondingly broad chest, which they will first have to crack. The betting companies expect that to be only a matter of time.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois – Mendy – Alaba – Militao – Carvajal – Kroos – Casemiro – Modric – Júnior – Asensio – Benzema
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
LaLiga
11/28 2021 – Real Madrid 2 – 1 Sevilla
Champions League Grp. D
11/24 2021 – FC Sheriff 0 – 3 Real Madrid
LaLiga
11/21 2021 – Granada 1 – 4 Real Madrid
11/06 2021 – Real Madrid 2 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
Champions League Grp. D
11/03 2021 – Real Madrid 2 – 1 Shakhtar Donetsk
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
Athletic Bilbao is one of the absolute flagships of Spanish football. The club from the Basque country has been in the top flight since the foundation of the Spanish league in 1928 and has already won the championship eight times – the last time in 1984.
They have also won the Copa del Rey 23 times. The Leones have also featured frequently on the international stage, but lost out in the Europa League final in both 1977 and 2012.
Only a mid-table finish again
Despite their great past, however, the Basques have struggled of late. Athletic Bilbao surprisingly secured the restructured Supercopa de Espana in 2020/21. In the league, however, the Leones once again ended up in mid-table.
The traditional club has not played internationally since the 2017/18 season. With 20 points from the first 14 league games and another sobering ninth place in the table, it doesn’t look like that will change under coach Marcelino in the new season.
First ten goals conceded from first 14 league games
Never the less, the Basques, who are currently waiting for another three-goal haul in five league games (four draws, one defeat), are extremely difficult to beat. Only two of the 14 league games have been lost, which is due to the extremely stable defence of the Leones.
With only ten goals conceded, the players from the Basque Country have the best defence in La Liga. Accordingly, there is a lot of value in betting on Real Madrid against Athletic Bilbao to score less than 2.5 goals, although it will be difficult for Marcelino’s team to win at the Bernabéu, where there has not been an away win in league play since February 2005.
Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Simón – Balenziaga – Martínez – Álvarez – Lekue – Muníauin – D. García – Vencedor – Williams – R. García – Sancet
Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:
LaLiga
11/26 2021 – Athletic Bilbao 2 – 2 Granada
11/19 2021 – Levante 0 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
11/05 2021 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 1 Cadiz
10/31 2021 – San Sebastian 1 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
10/26 2021 – Espanyol 1 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 101 – 38 – 60
There are 199 meetings between the two teams and the Blancos lead the head-to-head comparison with 101 wins. Most recently, Real have gone unbeaten in twelve consecutive La Liga encounters with Bilbao (eight wins, four draws).
Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao Tip
For Real Madrid against Athletic Bilbao, the prediction must take into account that the Basques have drawn six of their last seven away games and arrive with the best defence in La Liga. While the Blancos, unbeaten in nine competitive games, are very much in form, they must first get a crack at the Leones’ venomous defence.
With the two teams rarely going toe-to-toe – only once in their last ten encounters have they scored more than three goals – the goal bet for this match is the one that lends itself the most to this game.
