First vs. fourth – the top match in La Liga

La Liga continues with a top match after the international break. On Sunday evening, the 30th matchday will see first versus fourth, with league leaders Real Madrid hosting cup finalists Athletic Bilbao, who are even on course for the Champions League, at the Santiago Bernabéu. A tough game for Real Madrid, but of course all the more so for the visitors from Bilbao, who beat Atlético Madrid in the battle for the top flight last matchday and thus set an exclamation mark by jumping into the CL ranks.

This game on Sunday at 9pm will show whether Athletic Club Bilbao can keep up with the big boys. The Basques’ recent performances against FC Barcelona in the league and Atlético Madrid in the cup speak for themselves. Nevertheless, the role of favorite is clearly distributed, as the odds for Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao show:

How are both teams coming out of the international break, can the Basque high-flyers take something countable from the Bernabéu? What could give Athletic Club hope of winning a point, the form of both teams, which betting tips are recommended for this match and can offer good value – we shed light on all of this in this Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao preview, including betting odds, predictions and team checks for both clubs.

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

Since Real Madrid, together with Barcelona, have the most international players in La Liga, it will be interesting to see how the league leaders perform in their first match after the internationals. On the plus side, at least the South Americans did not have to travel long distances: Brazilians Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo, for example, played their international match with Brazil against Spain at the Bernabeu in Madrid, while Valverde played with Uruguay in Bilbao’s San Mames against a Basque side (coached by Marcelo Bielsa) and in Lens against Côte d’Ivoire, and the German legionnaires Kroos and Rüdiger were mainly in action in Germany.

Real Madrid will also need to be fresh – mentally and physically – against Athletic Club from Bilbao in order to secure victory. Not only because Bilbao are in fourth place – the Basques have been very strong in their games against the top teams this calendar year. Moreover, Real Madrid lacked the aforementioned freshness in February and also at the beginning of March, when the Whites put in a number of lackluster performances against Rayo (1:1), Valencia (2:2 after 0:2) and Leipzig (1:0, 1:1). At least things looked better again in the last two games before the national team break – especially in attack. The results against Celta and Osasuna were 4:0 and 4:2 respectively – admittedly different benchmarks to Bilbao

Real Madrid and the Bernabeu fortress

However, things have been going extremely well for Los Blancos at the Bernabeu so far. Real Madrid are the only unbeaten team at home in La Liga, have won 12 of their 14 home games and have only conceded seven goals – no home team has a better defense.

It is naturally difficult to bet against the record champions in Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao, as Ancelotti’s team are playing in their Bernabeu fortress. For some betting fans, the odds on Real Madrid at an average of 1.55 may be interesting enough. However, with Athletic Bilbao coming to the capital as a strong team, the betting tip Real wins & BTS in Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao should bring more exciting offers.

Predicted Real Madrid line-up:

Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form

From our point of view, the visitors from Bilbao are definitely capable of scoring a goal, if not more. The both teams meeting prediction for Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao has odds of 1.85, which should be worth considering, even though Real Madrid have only conceded seven goals at home. Athletic Bilbao have scored 50 goals so far this season, only four La Liga teams have scored more, including Real and Barça

Athletic Bilbao are also upsetting the top teams in La Liga

With two wins behind them (2-0 against Las Palmas and in the derby against Alaves) and a place in the cup final – beating Atlético Madrid 1-0 and 3-0 in the semi-finals – Bilbao should have plenty of confidence to be bold at the Bernabeu. The recent leap to fourth place in the Champions League should also give coach Ernesto Valverde’s team a boost.

The performances and results against top teams in recent months should also provide a boost. In 2024, Bilbao won against Atletico, Real Sociedad, Girona and FC Barcelona (albeit “only” after extra time) and also drew against Barça in LaLiga. Given this record, Bilbao have nothing to hide in the Bernabéu.

If you fancy the Basque lions on Sunday evening, you should set your sights on the double chance X/2 odds for Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao, which are around 2.50. These are already interesting odds, but perhaps even more is possible

Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:

Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao head-to-head comparison / H2H record

A point win for Bilbao at the Bernabeu is not that far-fetched, as they drew 1-1 last season. Meanwhile, Real Madrid won the first meeting this season 2-0 in Bilbao.

If we look at the most recent record, Real Madrid are unsurprisingly ahead. The Spanish record champions have won seven of the last ten meetings in all competitions. Bilbao have won twice in this period, once in the 2022 Cup quarter-final and once in the 2021 Super Cup semi-final. However, the visitors’ last league win at the Bernabeu was a long time ago. February 2005, 19 years ago, was the last time the Basques won against the Blancos.

Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao betting tip

A simple, or even more so a triple, point win would be a big exclamation mark from Athletic Bilbao in the fight for Champions League participation. They have recently proven on several occasions that they can annoy or even beat the top teams in La Liga. However, Bilbao are usually a real force to be reckoned with at home in San Mames, whereas this is often much less the case in away games. In the away table, Bilbao have failed to win nine of their 14 away games (5 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats) and have only scored 14 goals in the process. That sounds a lot less intimidating right away

At the same time, Real Madrid have an aura about them at the Bernabeu and the ability to win games late on if necessary – even if they’ve been suffering for a long time or even trailing. The possibility of this happening against Bilbao cannot be ruled out. Ultimately, we believe that this is a very conceivable scenario: That Bilbao will score, perhaps even lead or that it could be a long draw, but in the end Real Madrid will have the last word and win narrowly and possibly late on. Therefore, our prediction for Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao is: Real win and both score