Can the Bulls stop the free fall?
The team at the bottom of the table will do the honors at the end of matchday 20 in the Bundesliga. However, we are not talking about the bottom team in the overall standings, but the weakest team in the 2024 soccer year to date: RB Leipzig! The (still) reigning cup winners, who will face Real Madrid in the Premier League in ten days’ time for a place in the quarter-finals, have lost all three of their games after the winter break, making for a disastrous start to 2024. They should finally pick up their first points at the fourth attempt on Sunday afternoon
Stupidly, from the Bulls’ point of view, it’s against a real fearful opponent. The Saxons have lost five of their last six head-to-head BL duels against the Köpenickers. In the following paragraphs, you can find out which aspects of the match between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin nevertheless favor a prediction on the fifth-placed team
On Sunday, the visitors from the capital will once again be looking to keep the game open for as long as possible and preserve their clean sheet. However, should the encounter not go their way, coach Nenad Bjelica will surely have advised his assistants not to completely disregard the all-important catch-up game at Mainz on Wednesday evening. With this in mind, it might even make sense to bet on a handicap victory for the favorites in the East German duel between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
When managers see it as their duty to back their own coach, a lot has usually gone wrong in recent weeks. Leipzig’s sporting director Rouven Schröder also commented on Marco Rose ahead of the match against Union Berlin and expressed his unreserved confidence in the former Dortmund player. Nevertheless, the tone in the central city has become rougher after the recent failures. There is a threat of missing out on the minimum goal – qualification for the UEFA Champions League
The Saxons have now not won in four Bundesliga matches over the course of the year. In the 2023 calendar year, they suffered three defeats in a row, the first time since November/December 2021, when the cup winners of the previous two years – then still under Jesse Marsch – had to cope with such a negative run. The Red Bulls have dropped to fifth place in the standings. Following the painful 5-2 defeat at VfB Stuttgart the previous week, Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund have gained seven and nine points respectively on the Rose team in three matchdays.
RB Leipzig are currently failing themselves
The biggest weakness at the moment is undoubtedly the fragile defense. For the first time since April 2018 (!), a Leipzig team conceded five goals in the Bundesliga last weekend. Admittedly, however, that was just the tip of the iceberg, as 14 consecutive competitive matches with at least one goal conceded are impressive proof that the problem has existed for some time. This makes it all the more important and valuable that captain and defensive boss Willi Orban could be back in the starting eleven on Sunday for the first time since September. Certainly one of the reasons why we are primarily focusing on the odds in favor of the hosts between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin. Mohamed Simakan, meanwhile, will not be available due to a yellow card suspension.
Another argument that makes the pendulum swing more in RBL’s favor on Sunday afternoon in our eyes has to do with their home record. In ten games at the Red Bull Arena, the Champions League round of 16 finalists have picked up 20 out of a possible 30 points (6-2-2). 26 goals scored reads outstanding. In addition, the yield must be put into perspective in that the only two recent defeats were against Frankfurt (0:1) and league leaders Leverkusen (2:3). Both times, however, the team from the central city put in really good performances, but failed due to individual defensive errors and a wasteful exploitation of chances.
If the team in fifth place in the table can build on their performances and be rewarded for their efforts this time, we are very confident that the prediction of a home win between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin will come true. The main potential goalscorer for the hosts is, of course, Lois Openda. The Belgian has already scored 13 goals this season and has fully lived up to expectations so far. Should Openda score the 1:0 for his team on Sunday, this would be rewarded with top odds of 4.30 at Interwetten.
Predicted line-up for RB Leipzig:
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
Even ten days after the scandal surrounding Nenad Bjelica’s assault on Leroy Sané, the discussion surrounding the Union Berlin head coach has not yet died down. Some fans and many experts continue to call for the coach’s dismissal, arguing that the ex-professional, whose facial assault on the international also made waves within his own team, does not act as a role model.
The Croatian will have been all the more relieved when his charges were able to win the “six-point” game in the table basement against Darmstadt 98 in the previous week with a lackluster 1:0. A goal from Benedict Hollerbach after just over an hour drew cheers from the stands, where the suspended Bjelica will have to take his place again in the away game at the Red Bull Arena. Whether with or without the head coach on the bench, the Köpenickers’ approach will definitely not change
Will Union suffer their eighth defeat in their tenth away game in the Bundesliga?
While Bjelica’s predecessor Urs Fischer became a legend with his pragmatism, minimalism and defensive stability, there has been no turnaround in the style of play since the change on the touchline. Unlike in recent matches under the Swiss, however, the Iron have rediscovered their compactness, strength in tackles and also a bit of luck. They have only lost two of their last seven Bundesliga matches (3-2-2). In the last four league matches, keeper Frederik Rönnow has only had to make one save in total. Only in the 3-0 away defeat in Bochum did Bjelica concede more than one goal.
The fact that we are nevertheless focusing on the odds for Sunday’s match between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin, which is likely to be a commanding home win, is due to the disappointing record of last year’s fourth-placed team away from home. In fact, the capital city club is still the weakest away team in the German top flight.
In nine games away from home, they have scored just four points. The relegation-threatened cult club has lost seven times. In addition, only a meagre seven goals have been scored. 18 goals conceded correspond to an average of two goals per match. If they fall behind early, this increases the likelihood of the Red & Whites losing an away game by two or more goals for the fifth time this season.
Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:
RB Leipzig – Union Berlin head-to-head comparison / H2H result
The Red Bull Arena in Leipzig has been a very good place for Union Berlin recently. The Köpenickers have won both of their most recent away games in the central city 2:1. In general, the Ironmen have won five of their last six Bundesliga matches. However, RB’s only win in this review came in the first half of the season, when a goal from Xavi Simons and a brace from Benjamin Sesko shortly before the end gave the Bulls a 3-0 away win at the Alte Försterei.
RB Leipzig – Union Berlin betting tip
RB Leipzig are under extreme pressure on Sunday afternoon. After three defeats on the first three matchdays of the new year, the Saxons absolutely must return to winning ways. Otherwise – given the immense demands – things could get uncomfortable for coach Marco Rose relatively quickly. Despite the three defeats mentioned above, the Bulls only made a poor impression last week in Stuttgart. The home games against Frankfurt and Leverkusen could easily have yielded four to six points instead of zero.
It is precisely this assessment that we take as an opportunity to highlight the betting odds on a home win between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin. Value is not on offer in the three-way market, so we have to take a little more risk with regard to the final result. However, the vabanque game is calculable; after all, Köpenick are the weakest away team in the league, having conceded four of their seven away defeats this season by two or more goals.
We have therefore decided to bet on a handicap win for the hosts in the final match of matchday 20, RB Leipzig v Union Berlin. A respectable 2.07 is offered at Betano for the favorite three with at least two goals difference
