Will the Kiezkicker also surprise in the Red Bull Arena?

While RB Leipzig have gone the first three match days of a Bundesliga second half completely winless for the first time in the short history of the club, FC St. Pauli is currently one of the teams of the hour. With seven out of nine possible points and 6:1 goals, the Kiezkicker are in second place in the second half of the season, which is why the tip for the next point win for Hamburg against RB Leipzig against St. Pauli is by no means as absurd as it might seem at first glance.

When forecasting RB Leipzig against St. Pauli, it is important to note that the FCSP has not scored in ten of the 20 Bundesliga games of the 2024/25 season, which is the highest number in the league. Conversely, however, the Kiezkicker also have the second-best defense in the top flight of German football. When the Hamburgers were involved in the game, very little action was almost inevitable.

Interestingly, the head-to-head also speaks in favor of the brown-and-whites, who have not only remained completely unbeaten in the last four games against the Saxons (three wins, one draw), but have also not conceded a single goal. The first leg at the Millerntor also ended in a 0-0 draw – a result that we would by no means rule out given that RBL have not won in their last four league games (three draws, one defeat).

Of course, there are certain risks involved. In the value area, the combined tip on the double chance X2 is still under 3.5 goals, which is why we are betting on the second-best team in the league in the second half of the season to get something out of the game in the Red Bull Arena. This tip can be found at Interwetten at odds of 3.00.

RB Leipzig vs. St. Pauli prognosis AI

We often find a common consensus when we compare our human prognosis and the AI prognosis of supercomputer BETSiE. However, this is not the case with this game. The AI calculates a chance of just 12.7 percent for the Kiezkicker in the Red Bull Arena, but at the same time assumes a probability of 66.6 percent for the Leipzig home win.

RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form

RB Leipzig may have already been eliminated from the UEFA Champions League, but in the top flight of German football they remain on course to secure a place in the premier league again. With 33 points from 20 league games, the Red Bulls are not putting on their best season ever, but they are currently fourth in the table.

However, the situation could be much more relaxed if it hadn’t been for the recent setbacks. The Saxons have not won in four Bundesliga games (three draws, one defeat). For the first time, they have not won any of the first three matches in a Bundesliga second leg.
RB Leipzig rarely get a chance to finish.

Nevertheless, not only the betting providers, but also the AI forecast of the BETSiE for RB Leipzig against St. Pauli, the tip for the home win of Marco Rose’s team is very high. This is possibly due to the fact that the Saxons usually do not show weakness against promoted teams. In 34 Bundesliga matches so far, RBL has never lost to a promoted team (30 wins, four draws).

In fact, they have only lost a single point in the last 18 matches against promoted teams. However, this was in the first leg at the Millertor (0-0), when the Red Bulls were unable to score against FCSP for the fourth match in a row. If you add to that the fact that Leipzig have only scored 18 points at home (they have never scored fewer points from their first nine Bundesliga home games in a season) and have only created 221 chances, which only Kiel have created fewer of in the league (217), the risk of stumbling for the Saxons, who are out of form, is by no means negligible.

Predicted Leipzig lineup:

St. Pauli – statistics & current form

In the Bundesliga relegated 2025 forecast, FC St. Pauli has long since ceased to be one of the top favorites, but with 21 points from 20 league games and a healthy cushion of seven points over the relegation place, it is currently playing at most a supporting role.

This is also due to the dream start to the second half of the season. Only FC Bayern Munich (nine) have surpassed the seven out of nine points with 6:1 goals in the second half of the season. It should be noted that the Kiezkicker have also worked hard for the upturn. The brown and whites cover an average of 121.3 kilometers per league game. This is the best performance in the league.

St. Pauli’s strength is in defense

It cannot be denied that Alexander Blessin’s team often only defend, which is why there are already ten Bundesliga games in which the FCSP has not scored a goal (the highest number in the league). However, the team is physically able to defend with full concentration for the full 90 minutes, which is confirmed by the fact that the promoted team has conceded only 22 goals, attesting to the second-best defense in the Bundesliga.

Against this background, it is surprising that such high odds are being offered for Hamburg to win a point against St. Pauli at RB Leipzig, given that Hamburg has kept a clean sheet in seven of its 20 league games, including in the first leg against Leipzig (0-0).

Provisional line-up of St. Pauli:

RB Leipzig – St. Pauli direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 2 – 1 – 3

Six competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far, with FC St. Pauli leading the direct comparison with three wins. Although the Kiezkicker had to admit defeat to RB Leipzig 2-4 in the DFB Cup in October 2024. In the last four league duels in the league, however, the Hamburgers have always kept a clean sheet against the Saxons (three wins, one draw). The first leg at the Millerntor ended in a 0-0 draw.

RB Leipzig – St. Pauli Tip

A bit too clear for our taste at RB Leipzig against St. Pauli, the betting odds of the betting providers without tax in the direction of the Saxons, who have not only been without goals or victories against the Kiezkicker for four league games (one draw, three defeats), but have also not won in the Bundesliga for four consecutive games (three draws, one defeat). The Kiezkicker, on the other hand, are in a completely different position, sitting in second place in the second half of the season table and starting the second half of the season with seven out of a possible nine points and a goal difference of 6:1.

The FCSP is not putting up much of a defensive fight, which is why there shouldn’t be too much action in this duel. In view of the high prices, however, we believe that the forecast of a point win for Hamburg in the match between RB Leipzig and St. Pauli offers a lot of value.

We recommend the combined tip on the double chance X2 with under 3.5 goals, which we offer at Interwetten at odds of 3.00 with three units.