Are RBL finally losing touch with BVB?
There was rather bad news to report about RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund on the international stage during the week. While BVB also lost the second leg against Ajax Amsterdam 3-1 despite leading 1-0 and thus face a real “final” at Benfica Lisbon after the international break, the Marsch eleven fought their way to a respectable 2-2 draw at home against Paris St. Germain, but as of Wednesday still have no chance of making the Champions League last 16.
On Saturday evening, the two dejected cup finalists from May 2021 will now face each other in the Bundesliga. Somewhat surprisingly, RB Leipzig is seen quite clearly ahead against Dortmund according to the odds. This assessment is particularly unexpected in that the Black and Yellows are now unbeaten in seven direct duels in the Bundesliga against the Bulls and have won all three of their most recent meetings.
Without their absolute top striker, coach Marco Rose’s team does not look nearly as strong and powerful going forward. Defensively, however, Borussia is lacking at almost every turn. This is one of the reasons why it might make more sense to predict a relatively high number of goals between RB Leipzig and Dortmund.
RB Leipzig – statistics & current form
It has taken a long time for the reigning runners-up from the central city to arrive in the current Bundesliga season. Recently, however, the form curve of coach Jesse Marsch’s team has definitely been pointing upwards. The Saxons have not lost any of their last six league games. However, because they have “only” won three and drawn three points in this period, the Champions League participants currently have to settle for eighth place.
The current situation in the table is especially problematic in view of the fact that the upcoming opponents have already collected nine points more than the team itself. So if the bet on an away win between RB Leipzig and Dortmund pays off on Saturday evening, the gap to Borussia would already grow to twelve points. However, if the East Germans manage to continue the upward trend of recent weeks, a further climb in the standings seems to be only a matter of time.
Will the Leipzig fans be presented with another offensive firework display?
The Marsch eleven is particularly strong at home. They have won four of their five home games in the current Bundesliga season. Only against FC Bayern did Nkunku and Co. lose out. This puts RBL in second place in the home table behind BVB.
Even more striking, however, is the fact that the Bullen’s home games traditionally offer plenty of spectacle. In all seven games in front of a home crowd (Bundesliga & Champions League), at least three goals were scored. On average, there have even been more than four goals per match (30 goals in total). This impressive statistic therefore provides a clear argument for taking a look at the odds on excess goals between RB Leipzig and Dortmund.
In the third consecutive English week, coach Jesse Marsch will certainly be looking very closely at how he manages the load. However, due to the international break that follows and the enormous importance of the home match against the direct rival, the former Salzburg coach is unlikely to dare to make any major experiments. Halstenberg, Klostermann, Orban and Saracchi are missing due to injury. Dani Olmo, on the other hand, may be a candidate for the starting eleven again after recovering from a torn muscle fibre.
Predicted line-up of RB Leipzig:
Gulacsi – Mukiele, Simakan, Gvardiol – Henrichs, A. Haidara, Kampl, Angelino – Nkunku, Poulsen, Szoboszlai
Last matches played by RB Leipzig:
Champions League Grp. A
11/03 2021 – RB Leipzig 2 – 2 Paris Saint-Germain
1st Bundesliga
10/30 2021 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 RB Leipzig
DFB Cup
10/26 2021 – Babelsberg 0 – 1 RB Leipzig
1st Bundesliga
10/23 2021 – RB Leipzig 4 – 1 Greuther Fürth
Champions League Grp. A
10/19 2021 – Paris Saint-Germain 3 – 2 RB Leipzig
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
For Marco Rose, the away game on Saturday evening will certainly be a very special one. The Leipzig native is returning to his hometown once again and is determined to take three points away. Of course, the task will not be easy, although the Black and Yellows start the game with the necessary self-confidence thanks to four Bundesliga victories in a row.
In general, their record of eight wins from ten league games in 2021/22 is very good. Only twice (2010/11 and 2013/14) did BVB have more points on their account after ten matchdays than they currently do.
Will BVB build on RBL’s good record under Rose?
If you still want to find the fly in the ointment at national level, then it is certainly the away record. They have already lost two of their four away games. Seven goals conceded in opposing stadiums underline the slight problem that explains the odds quoted between RB Leipzig and Dortmund on the three-way market.
On the other hand, the fact that the Saxons have actually always fared quite well against the Westphalians in recent years gives hope. Borussia has won five of the last seven Bundesliga matches. In addition, the DFB Cup final in May of this year also went to the Ballspielverein. In the pre-season, no team scored more goals against the Central German team in the first and second legs than BVB. On average, Dortmund score exactly twice against RBL.
The hospital is getting fuller and fuller
Fact is, moreover, that the Rose eleven also stands for dynamic attacking football. In eight out of ten league games, a bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through. On average, 4.2 goals are scored in the games of the current second-placed team. With a clear conscience, therefore, the forecast between RB Leipzig and Dortmund is for at least three goals in the course of the match.
This is despite the fact that the Black and Yellows are still struggling with major personnel problems. In addition to the aforementioned Haaland, Can, Dahoud, Guerreiro, Kamara, Morey, Reyna, Schmelzer, Wolf and Schulz are also out. The four-man backline is therefore almost self-organising. Felix Passlack will also be needed by Marco Rose in these busy days.
Predicted line-up of Dortmund:
Kobel – Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Passlack – Witsel – Bellingham, Brandt – Reus, T. Hazard, Malen
Last matches played by Dortmund:
Champions League Grp. C
11/03 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 3 Ajax Amsterdam
1st Bundesliga
10/30 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 1. FC Köln
DFB Cup
10/26 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 Ingolstadt
1st Bundesliga
10/23 2021 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
Champions League Grp. C
10/19 2021 – Ajax Amsterdam 4 – 0 Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig – Dortmund Tip
The most notable top match of the 11th matchday in the Bundesliga will be contested by RB Leipzig and Dortmund on Saturday evening. The betting odds suggest that the home side have the better chance of winning the match. However, after seven winless direct duels in a row, we would be cautious to place a bet on the Bulls, especially as they are far from exuding the glamour of days gone by despite their upward form curve.
In our eyes, betting on the number of goals is the better option anyway. After all, we expect an offensive spectacle from two teams that are known for playing aggressively, boldly and forcefully forward. Furthermore, this is the third consecutive English week for both teams, so there may also be a bit of a lull in defensive concentration.
Statistically, the bet on the over 2.5 in the clash between RB Leipzig and Dortmund is also very justifiable. On the one hand, at least three goals were scored in all seven of the central cities’ home games in the competition. On the other hand, the Over 2.5 would also have been crowned with success in eight of BVB’s ten Bundesliga matches. The 1.60 we found at Betway is worth a confident bet of seven units to us.
Alternatively, it would be conceivable to place a bet on both teams scoring at least once after the break. The combined recommendation of double chance X2 in conjunction with goals from both teams is also possible.
