Top game cracker for the BL restart!
After an unusually long winter break of over two months due to the World Cup in Qatar, the time has finally come on Friday evening. The Bundesliga resumes play and with an absolute cracker. RB Leipzig and Bayern face each other at the Red Bull Arena.
Actually, the two CL eighth-finalists are separated by six points. The leaders from Munich could thus extend their lead to nine points at best in the central city. Although coach Julian Nagelsmann’s team will also have to do without a number of potential key players, the absence of Christopher Nkunku is likely to weigh even more heavily on the home side.
By the way, a look at the last encounters between the defending champions and the reigning cup winners makes it clear why the FCB are the clear favourites. For the last eight Bundesliga games between RB Leipzig and Bayern, the Saxons have not been picked. In fact, the Messestädter have only won one of their twelve league games against the serial champions, who could land their tenth (!) consecutive win in a competitive match on Friday evening.
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
In the wake of the 2022 World Cup, Max Eberl has taken up his new post as managing director at RB Leipzig. Together with coach Marco Rose, whom he already knows well from his successful time at Borussia Mönchengladbach, the ex-Bayern professional wants to further develop the club and, in the medium term, even knock the record champions from Munich off their throne in Germany’s top flight.
The aforementioned Marco Rose has impressively proven that he is the right person for the job in the last few months after taking office. In ten Bundesliga games under his leadership, RBL has scored 23 out of a possible 30 points and has already moved up to third place in the table. They are just six points behind their long-time rivals from the Isar.
Rose knows how to beat Bayern
For the upcoming match in front of a home crowd in the Allianz Arena, it is encouraging that there are only two football coaches among the current Bundesliga coaches, Rose and Svensson, who have already beaten the leaders twice.
Apart from that, the impressive home strength must also be cited as a pro-argument in favour of the red bulls. Six of the previous seven matches in the Red Bull Arena were victorious. No other club has scored more points in front of their own fans than the central city side, who have also scored a total of 19 goals in front of their home crowd and thus scored almost three times on average per home match.
For this reason, among others, we believe that the odds on over-goals between RB Leipzig and Bayern should be scrutinised more closely. The Over 3.5, for example, would have paid off in four of seven home matches. In all seven matches at home, Timo Werner and Co. also scored at least two goals of their own.
How can Nkunku’s absence be compensated for?
The team should not lack confidence either, as they won four BL matches in a row immediately before the World Cup break. Their last defeat at national level came on 17 September with a 3-0 loss against Gladbach.
In terms of personnel, Leipzig, who have not lost once at home so far this season, will have to do without Nkunku, as mentioned above. Behind Mbappe, Lewandowski and Kane, the Frenchman was the player with the fourth most goals (33) in the European top leagues in the calendar year 2022. Regular keeper Gulacsi will also continue to be replaced by Blaswich. Otherwise, all men are probably on board, including Konrad Laimer or Lukas Klostermann, who are even options for the starting eleven again after a long injury.
Predicted line-up of RB Leipzig:
Blaswich – Simakan, Orban, Gvardiol, Halstenberg – X. Schlager, Laimer – Szoboszlai, Dani Olmo – Forsberg – Silva
Last matches played by RB Leipzig:
Club friendlies
14/01/2023 – RB Leipzig 4 – 0 Mlada Boleslaw
02/12/2022 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 AC Horsens
25/11/2022 – RB Leipzig 6 – 0 Radomiak Radom
Bundesliga
12/11/2022 – Werder Bremen 1 – 2 RB Leipzig
10/11/2022 – RB Leipzig 3 – 1 SC Freiburg
Bayern – Statistics & current form
Now it has worked out after all! Yann Sommer is moving from Borussia Mönchengladbach to FC Bayern with immediate effect. The Swiss national keeper signed his new contract during the week and passed the usual medical check. If you believe the statements of Julian Nagelsmann, it is even not impossible that the experienced newcomer will already be on the pitch from the start on Friday evening.
From the FCB’s point of view, the goalkeeper recruitment was a particularly important one after Manuel Neuer’s skiing accident, even though the time around the World Cup went anything but smoothly for the record champions. In addition to the (once) world’s best goalkeeper, Munich will also have to do without Sadio Mané, Lucas Hernandez and Noussair Mazraoui in the coming weeks. The personnel problems in the defence are to be compensated for with the signing of Daley Blind.
FCB stand for spectacle under Nagelsmann
However, the best way to conceal any deficiencies that may arise in the game against the ball is with an outstanding attack. That is exactly what Bayern have, having already scored 49 goals in the league after 15 match days. Only in the 1976/77 season did they score one more goal at the same time. Also interesting: In Europe’s top five leagues, the Nagelsmann team even ranks first with 82 cross-competition goals.
The Munich side have won ten competitive games in a row. In the Bundesliga alone, they have won six in a row. Moreover, the latest results before the World Cup break have clearly shown what kind of football the young FCB coach wants to play. The team presses without regard to the losses. Sometimes, however, the rest of the defence and counter-attacking protection has been too careless in the course of the season so far.
Does Musiala build on his strong scoring quota?
Nine of the 15 league games involving the industry leader have seen more than four goals. On average, there are even more than four goals per match (62 in total). These figures reinforce our approach of looking at the odds on many goals between RB Leipzig and Bayern.
In our opinion, Jamal Musiala is the most likely potential goalscorer for the visitors. The youngster was one of Germany’s bright spots at the World Cup and has also performed brilliantly for his club team in the first half of 2022/23. In 22 competitive games, “Bambi” was involved in 21 goals. He is currently the top scorer in the Bundesliga with nine goals and six assists.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
Ulreich (Sommer) – Pavard, Upamecano, de Ligt, Davies – Kimmich, Goretzka – L. Sané, Musiala, Coman – Choupo-Moting
Last matches played by Bayern:
Club friendlies
13/01/2023 – Bayern Munich 4 – 4 RB Salzburg
Bundesliga
13/11/2022 – Schalke 04 0 – 2 Bayern Munich
09/11/2022 – Bayern Munich 6 – 1 Werder Bremen
05/11/2022 – Hertha BSC 2 – 3 Bayern Munich
Champions League Grp. C
02/11/2022 – Bayern Munich 2 – 0 Inter Milan
RB Leipzig – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Leipzig’s record against Bayern does not read particularly successful. There has only been one win in twelve Bundesliga matches so far. However, this dates back to the 2017/18 season and is therefore a long time in the past. Most recently, there were eight winless RBL games against the FCB (four draws, four defeats).
Spectacle, however, was usually on offer between these teams. Last season, Bayern won 3:2 at home and also had the upper hand in the preliminary round in Messestadt, winning 4:1. The Supercup final earlier in the season also ended in a high-scoring affair in favour of the Munich side, who triumphed 5-3 on 30 July 2022.
RB Leipzig – Bayern Tip
The anticipation for the re-start in the Bundesliga is growing almost by the minute. The fixture designers in Germany’s top division have also done a great job in the run-up to this season and have drawn a real cracker for the first match after the winter break, of all things. RB Leipzig will meet Bayern. According to the betting odds, the Munich team will land the next big point in the title race. The Saxons are only considered outsiders.
Especially before the World Cup break, however, the central city team presented itself in extraordinarily good shape and recorded 23 of a possible 30 points in ten Bundesliga games under Marco Rose. In addition, the home advantage of the red bulls should not be underestimated, as they have not lost a league match at home in the current season. A bet on the three-way market is thus not our preferred approach.
Betting on at least four goals in the course of the match between RB Leipzig and Bayern is more exciting. Munich have the best attack in Europe and have already scored 82 goals in the competition. Leipzig also score an average of almost three times per game at home and are equally synonymous with bold attacking football. It is not for nothing that the two teams with the highest possession and passing rates in the top flight will meet.
