Will Betis lay the foundations for a place in the final?
Four clubs still have a chance of winning the 2021/22 Copa del Rey title, and if we look at the overall odds ahead of the first semi-final between Rayo Vallecano and Betis Sevilla, the Andalusians are currently top favourites to win the trophy.
On the one hand, this assessment is of course based on the fact that none of the big names like Barcelona, Real Madrid, Sevilla or Atletico Madrid are still in the running. On the other hand, the southern Spaniards have absolutely earned this role as favourites thanks to a strong season so far. Before the “Béticos” can plan for the final, however, they must first eliminate Rayo, who are strong at home, in the preliminary round, which is traditionally played with a first leg and a second leg. The potential final opponent will finally be determined between Athletic Bilbao and Valencia.
For the supposed underdogs from Madrid’s Vallecas district, meanwhile, Tuesday night’s first leg already has a landmark significance. As one of the best home teams in the Spanish La Liga, it would be eminently important to take the lead in the first of two games. However, the home side’s recent results between Rayo Vallecano and Betis Sevilla mean that a prediction of a three-goal win for Michel’s side is not particularly likely.
Rayo Vallecano – Statistics & current form
Rayo Vallecano have been increasingly quiet in recent weeks. While the capital spent the winter in a sensational fourth place in the table, the new year 2022 has so far been anything but as desired.
From four La Liga matches, they have only managed one disappointing point. In three of the four matches, the Madrid team failed to score a goal. Most recently, they suffered a surprising home defeat against Athletic Bilbao and a 2-0 loss at Celta Vigo in the dress rehearsal for this semi-final. As a result, coach Michel’s team has dropped to ninth place in the standings.
Rayo fight against downward trend in cup
As it will be difficult to punch a ticket for European competition in the remainder of the season at league level, the Spanish lift team will now surely put a special focus on the cup. So far, the Red and Whites have benefited from the luck of the draw. Mallorca was the only first-division team they had to get out of the way in the quarter-finals. With the exception of a 3:1 win against the third-division team Bragantinos, all victories came by exactly one goal difference. There was little sign of a certain dominance against lower-class opponents.
Given their recent form and the fact that they have managed no more than one goal of their own in eight of their last nine competitive games against La Liga clubs, we would advise against betting on a home win between Rayo Vallecano and Betis Sevilla on Wednesday evening. Even though the Madrid side have won eight of their eleven home games in the Spanish top flight, we are very sceptical that this impressive record can be extended in the cup given their recent performances.
Alternatively, betting on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match can be an exciting option. In the last eight league games of the red and white team, the corresponding under 2.5 would have always gone through. Coach Michel will definitely have to do without Unai Lopez, Jose Pozo and Martin Merquelanz. Some starting adjustments compared to the aforementioned 0:2 defeat in Vigo are to be expected.
Predicted line-up of Rayo Vallecano:
Dimitrievski; Balliu, Suarez, Catena, Rodrigues; Comesana, Valentin; Palazon, Trejo, A Garcia; Falcao
Last matches played by Rayo Vallecano:
LaLiga
02/05 2022 – Celta Vigo 2 – 0 Rayo Vallecano
Copa del Rey
02/02 2022 – Rayo Vallecano 1 – 0 Mallorca
LaLiga
01/23 2022 – Rayo Vallecano 0 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
Copa del Rey
01/15 2022 – Girona 1 – 2 Rayo Vallecano
LaLiga
01/09 2022 – Rayo Vallecano 1 – 1 Real Betis
Betis Sevilla – Statistics & current form
Betis Sevilla are playing an extremely successful season so far. In the Europa League, the southern Spaniards have entered the playoffs in second place behind Leverkusen, in La Liga they are currently third in the table and in the Copa del Rey the Andalusians are one of only four teams still fighting for the title. Considering that Betis have only made it to the final round of the King’s Cup once since 2006, this year’s performance is even more impressive.
The road to the semifinals was not a foregone conclusion. In the round of 16, the “Béticos” beat Sevilla FC 2-1 in the city derby, before Real Sociedad, also a top team from the Spanish La Liga, were defeated 4-0 away from home the week before.
Betis looking to confirm recent cup performances
It is clear from these results that coach Pellegrini is paying special attention to the cup and wants to give his club the title for the first time since 2005. At the same time, the performances shown are of course a strong argument to make a prediction in the direction of the third-placed team in the table between Rayo Vallecano and Betis Sevilla.
If you prefer a different bet instead, you should analyse the sub 2.5 more closely. On the one hand, both teams will not yet take full risk in the first leg; on the other hand, the second-best away team in La Liga has marked far fewer goals away from home than at home. Moreover, in three of the last five league games, betting on a maximum of two goals would also have been crowned with success. This was also the case in the dress rehearsal at the weekend, which was surprisingly lost at home against Villarreal with 0:2.
Joaquin, Claudio Bravo and Martin Montoya are not available. Otherwise, all men are on board, although the experienced coach Pellegrini will also be looking for changes after the poor performance against the “Yellow Submarine”. It will be important to build on the defensive performances of the cup competition so far. Three of the five games were won by zero. In total, only three goals were conceded.
Predicted line-up of Betis Sevilla:
Silva; Sabaly, Ruiz, Bartra, Moreno; Carvalho, Gonzalez; Juanmi, Canales, Fekir; Iglesias
Last matches played by Betis Sevilla:
LaLiga
02/06 2022 – Real Betis 0 – 2 FC Villarreal
Copa del Rey
02/03 2022 – San Sebastian 0 – 4 Real Betis
LaLiga
01/21 2022 – Espanyol 1 – 4 Real Betis
01/18 2022 – Real Betis 4 – 0 Deportivo Alaves
Copa del Rey
01/16 2022 – Real Betis 2 – 1 Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano – Betis Sevilla Direct comparison / H2H record
Exactly one month ago this duel took place in the Spanish top flight. On that occasion, the teams parted with a 1-1 draw, although Betis had been shorthanded since minute 33 and then took the lead before finally conceding the equaliser 20 minutes from time.
Rayo’s last league win against Betis, meanwhile, dates back to 2014, with three Andalusian victories and three draws in six La Liga meetings since then. In the Copa del Rey, Rayo narrowly edged out the ‘Béticos’ on penalties in 2019/20 as a second division side. However, in their previous four encounters, the Madrid side have always lost out, losing out on both occasions.
Rayo Vallecano – Betis Sevilla tip
The first of two semi-finals in the Spanish King’s Cup will take place on Wednesday evening. Rayo Vallecano will meet Betis Sevilla. According to the betting odds, the Andalusians have the better chances to reach the final. For the first leg in the Madrid district of Vallecas, however, there are indications of an exciting battle in which no clear favourite can be named in advance.
This assessment by the bookmakers is primarily due to the fact that Rayo are the third best home team in La Liga and have already won eight of their eleven home games this season. In addition, the visitors from the south of Spain will be looking to establish a good starting position. Even a draw could be enough for them. As a result, we tend to refrain from making predictions in the three-way market.
We think it is more interesting to bet on Rayo Vallecano and Betis Sevilla scoring a maximum of two goals in the first leg. The Madrid side have failed to score in four of their last five La Liga games and have played eight consecutive Under 2.5 games in the top flight. Betis, meanwhile, have kept their clean sheet a few times in recent weeks and seem to be in better form at the moment. Exactly one month ago, the two clubs drew 1-1.
Six out of a possible ten units are absolutely justifiable as a bet. A potential bet on the Andalusians progressing is also worth considering even before the first of two games begins. It is quite possible that the odds will have already dropped significantly before the second leg on 3 March.
