Will the Franjirrojos upset the Catalans again?
FC Barcelona is heading towards its first national championship in four years with big steps. With eight league games left, the Catalans already have an eleven-point lead over defending champions Real Madrid. If Rayo Vallecano’s bet on the Blaugrana to win against Barcelona also pans out, it would be the next big step towards the 27th championship title in the club’s history.
However, the Catalans already stumbled in the first leg against the Franjirrojos, who took a point from the Camp Nou in a goalless draw and are thus unbeaten against the Blaugrana for a total of three league games in a row (two wins, one draw). What is striking, however, is the fact that only two goals were scored in these three games, which is why our prediction for Rayo Vallecano against Barcelona is once again for a low-scoring game.
From a defensive point of view, FC Barcelona in particular has hardly been on fire lately. The Catalans have conceded just nine goals in 30 league games in the 2022/23 season and have conceded just one goal in their last seven league games, which have produced five wins and two draws. This contrasts with the Madrid side, who are also very compact defensively and have not conceded a goal in their last three encounters with the Blaugrana.
Rayo Vallecano – Statistics & current form
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid celebrates its 100th anniversary next year. Currently, the Franjirrojos are in their 20th season of belonging to the highest division of the country, to which in the summer of 2021 via the playoffs the return succeeded.
Under promotion coach Andoni Iraola, the capital team finished last season in a highly respectable twelfth place in the final table. In the 2022/23 season, on the other hand, they finished ninth in the table with eight matchdays to go.
Ten points clear of the first relegation spot
Although results have been increasingly lacking in recent weeks with only eight points out of a possible 30, an international starting spot is still closer (only six points behind) than the first relegation spot (ten points ahead), allowing the Madrilenians to be very relaxed going into the home match against the undisputed league leaders.
Coach Andoni Iraola had just the right recipe against the Blaugrana anyway. In all three league games against Barcelona under the 40-year-old, Rayo Vallecano not only remained unbeaten (two wins, one draw), but also without conceding a goal. This also favors our prediction on Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona that only one team will score in this duel.
La Liga’s fifth-fewest home defeats
The fact that only one of ten league games has been won recently (five draws, four defeats) does speak against the Franjirrojos. However, the capital city side can still claim a fundamental home advantage.
In the Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas, only four of the 15 league games were lost in the 2022/23 season in La Liga. Only Barcelona (zero), Real Madrid (one), Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad (three each) have lost fewer games at home than Rayo Vallecano.
Last matches played by Rayo Vallecano:
La Liga
- 22/04/2023 – Real Sociedad 2 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
- 15/04/2023 – Rayo Vallecano 2 – 1 Osasuna Pamplona
- 10/04/2023 – Rayo Vallecano 1 – 2 Atletico Madrid
- 04/04/2023 – Valencia 1 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
- 18/03/2023 – Rayo Vallecano 2 – 2 Girona
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
Although FC Barcelona had to cope with several setbacks in the 2021/22 season after the bitter disappointments in the 2022/23 season. In addition to another exit in the Champions League preliminary round, the Europa League exit against Manchester United and the 0:4 home defeat in the Copa del Rey semifinals against Real Madrid caused long faces.
At least in La Liga, however, everything is in place for the winner’s trophy to return to Catalonia this summer after a four-year absence. The lead over Real Madrid is eleven points with eight games still to play.
Unbeaten for seven league games in a row
There is therefore much to suggest that the celebrations can start as early as the first half of May, which is why there hasn’t been much excitement of late. After two goalless draws against Girona and Getafe, however, a single goal against Atletico Madrid on Sunday was enough for the next minimalist 1-0 victory.
Overall, Barcelona has thus been unbeaten for seven league games in a row (five wins, two draws) and has conceded just one goal in total in these seven games. Accordingly, the odds on Rayo Vallecano against Barcelona are clearly in the Catalans’ favor.
On average only 0.3 goals conceded per league match
To be sure, both league games lost in the 2022/23 season were on away matches. With 37 of 45 possible points on foreign grounds, the Blaugrana are nevertheless by far the best away team in La Liga.
The fact that the Xavi eleven is so difficult to beat is primarily due to its concrete defense. They have conceded just nine goals in their 30 league games so far, which means they have conceded just 0.3 goals per game.
Last Barcelona games:
La Liga
- 23/04/2023 – FC Barcelona 1 – 0 Atletico Madrid
- 16/04/2023 – Getafe 0 – 0 FC Barcelona
- 11/04/2023 – FC Barcelona 0 – 0 Girona
Copa del Rey
- 06/04/2023 – FC Barcelona 0 – 4 Real Madrid
La Liga
- 02/04/2023 – Elche 0 – 4 FC Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano – Barcelona Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 6 – 9 – 27
There have been a total of 42 meetings between the two teams so far and with 27 wins, the Blaugrana lead the direct comparison very clearly. Most recently, however, Rayo Vallecano had the edge in this duel. The Franjirrojos remained unbeaten in three consecutive league games against Barcelona (two wins, one draw) and without conceding a goal.
Rayo Vallecano – Barcelona tip
When it comes to Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona, the betting odds do swing in the direction of the visitors, who have won 24 of their 30 league games in the 2022/23 season and lead the table by eleven points over Real Madrid. However, the Blaugrana already lost to the Franjirrojos in the first leg (0:0) and remained winless and scoreless in their third consecutive match against the capital. Accordingly, the bet on the away victory of the Catalans is risky.
With a view to the fact that the Blaugrana, for their part, have conceded only one goal in the last seven league games, although twice they have played only 0-0, we certainly expect a low-scoring game. The bet on a maximum of one team scoring is the one that offers the most value.
