Will the Werkself set the course for the quarter-finals?
Three of the eight ties in the round of 16 of the UEFA Europa League are rematches of group games. While Atalanta Bergamo once again visit Sporting Lisbon and SC Freiburg welcome West Ham United to Breisgau, Bayer Leverkusen return to Azerbaijan. The in-form Black & Reds already won there 1-0 in the preliminary round, so the tip for Qarabag FC against Leverkusen is for the Werkself to win again
However, Qarabag Agdam are not the first representative from Azerbaijan to reach the last 16 of a UEFA competition for nothing. The blue-and-whites are extremely strong at home and have only lost three of their last 24 European home games (eleven wins, ten draws) – including two of their last three home games in the competition. Nevertheless, our prediction for Qarabag FC against Leverkusen is clearly in favor of the Werkself
There is ultimately too big a difference in quality between the squads of the two clubs. In addition, Werkself remain unbeaten in the 2023/24 season, now lead the Bundesliga by ten points ahead of Bayern and have won all of their last six competitive matches in a row. Even if the Black & Reds still have the second leg at the BayArena up their sleeve in case of doubt, we therefore expect them to win the first leg.
Given the defensive qualities of the home side, a generous under bet in conjunction with betting tip 2 will add the necessary value to the ticket. We are therefore betting on an away win for the Werkself with a maximum of four goals
Qarabag FC – Statistics & current form
For Qarabag Futbol Klubu, who relocated from Agdam to Baku in the wake of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, making it to the last 16 of the Europa League is already a great success. Atlılar are the first representative from Azerbaijan to reach the round of 16 in a UEFA competition.
The blue-and-whites have already left well-known teams in their wake. In the group stage, Gurban Gurbanov relegated Molde FK and BK Häcken to third and fourth place, before eliminating none other than 2011 finalists Sporting Braga in the intermediate round.
Qarabag FC showed great morale in the intermediate round
Qarabag FC initially celebrated a 4-2 away win against the relegated Champions League side from Portugal before the second leg at the Azersun Arena turned out to be even more exciting. An early red card against Elvin Cafarquliyev, who is now suspended along with full-back Júlio Romão, meant that the score was 0-2 after 90 minutes before three more goals were scored in a crazy extra time.
In the end, it was Nariman Akhundzada who scored with the last action of the game shortly before the penalty shoot-out in the 122nd minute of the game to make the final score 2:3, which allowed Atlılar to progress despite losing. Officially, however, the Blue & Whites have now lost two of their last three Europa League home games – more than in the 21 previous international home games (ten wins, ten draws, one defeat).
Qarabag FC lead the national league with aplomb
The team from Baku will undoubtedly not care about their record, however, as Qarabag FC have absolutely nothing to lose in this round of 16 and will be looking for revenge for their defeat in the group stage. Due to the two suspended players, however, the odds are clearly in favor of Qarabag FC against Leverkusen.
Nevertheless, Atlılar are not going into the match in poor form. Gurban Gurbanov’s side have won three consecutive league games at national level following their run to the Europa League round of 16, scoring 10 goals to 1 and extending their lead to 23 points in second place. The club can now fully focus on this knockout game.
Predicted line-up of Qarabag FC:
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
Bayer Leverkusen avoided the intermediate round by winning the group stage and secured a direct ticket to the last 16 of the Europa League. The Black & Reds not only swept aside their current opponents Qarabag FC 6:1 in the preliminary round after the first and second legs, but also won all six games.
Incidentally, the last team in the Europa League to record six wins in a row ended up winning the title (Villarreal in 2020/21)
Leverkusen are still dancing at all three weddings
No wonder, because the Bundesliga club is still completely unbeaten in the 2023/24 season. Not only are Werkself still in the draw for the Europa League, but Xabi Alonso’s team are now also the heavy favorites to win the title at national level, both in the DFB Cup and in the league.
The fact that Bayern slipped up again at the weekend, while the Rhinelanders celebrated a successful dress rehearsal with a 2-0 away win in Cologne, means that there is now a ten-point gap between them and second place. Accordingly, there is little to suggest that the Black & Reds will let this unique opportunity to win the first championship in the club’s history slip away from them
Leverkusen have been very accurate again recently
The betting tip for an away win for Qarabag FC against Leverkusen is also under a very good star, as they have won all of their last six competitive matches in a row and have always scored at least two goals of their own without exception.
What’s more, the defense of Xabi Alonso’s highly sought-after squad has not let too much get in the way. Only three goals were conceded in the Europa League preliminary round. Meanwhile, they have conceded 16 goals in 24 Bundesliga matches. On average, the Werkself have not even conceded one goal per competitive match, which should be half the battle when they visit Azerbaijan.
Predicted Leverkusen line-up:
Qarabag FC – Leverkusen head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 0 – 0 – 2
The two teams already faced each other twice in the group stage of the UEFA Europa League 2023/24. Not only did the Werkself win the first leg in the Rhineland with a dominant 5:1, but the Black & Reds also managed a 1:0 away win in the second leg in Azerbaijan. Qarabag Agdam thus remained winless in eight duels with Bundesliga representatives (one draw, seven defeats).
Qarabag FC – Leverkusen betting tip
The betting odds for Qarabag FC against Leverkusen are very clearly in favor of the Bundesliga team, whose away win in the first leg we also consider very likely. After all, the Black & Reds beat the Azerbaijani side 1-0 away from home in the preliminary round and go into this round of 16 match in incredibly good form. In view of the fact that Atlılar also have to compensate for two suspended regular players, the hosts’ defense is unlikely to have enough class to stop the goal-scoring Werkself.
However, Qarabag Agdam will certainly try to keep the game 0-0 for as long as possible. A goal festival therefore seems unlikely, which is why we consider the prediction that Qarabag FC will win against Leverkusen, but that a maximum of four goals will be scored.
