Will Poznan defend their narrow lead in Azerbaijan?

Week after week, we can now look forward to exciting and, above all, important qualifying matches for the UEFA Champions League. More than 30 clubs still fancy their chances of snatching one of the coveted places in the group stage. However, 26 participants in the main draw have already been confirmed, leaving only six tickets still to be allocated.

Before a final decision is made on which teams will ultimately play for the trophy, which will be presented in Istanbul this season, there is still some time to go. At the moment we are only in the first qualifying round, but there we are just before the second legs. Among others, Qarabag Agdam and Lech Poznan will face each other. According to the odds, the Polish champions have the slightly better chances of advancing to the second qualifying round after their 1-0 win in the first leg.

However, coach John van den Brom’s side will need to improve significantly on their loss in the Super Cup final at the weekend to cup winners Rakow if they are not to suffer another setback at this early stage of the season.

The fact that the greater pressure is on the home side is certainly hopeful. For the visitors, however, a point will be enough to ensure that the prediction of the Poles progressing between Qarabag Agdam and Lech Poznan will come true.

Qarabag Agdam – Statistics & current form

The coach of Qarabag Agdam is a living legend. For 14 years (!) Qurban Qurbanov has been in charge of the best and most successful football club in Azerbaijan. In the meantime, he even held the post of national coach of his country in a double function. Qarabag have played more than 500 competitive matches under the 50-year-old’s leadership and have celebrated some spectacular successes.

They have reached the group stage of the Europa League six times, and last year Agdam even reached the intermediate round of the Conference League. The 2017/18 season, however, remains unforgotten, when they were even allowed to compete in the group stage of the top flight, but only managed two points after six match days in the group of death with Chelsea, Atletico Madrid and AS Roma. The eleven-time national champions would like to repeat this success from five years ago. However, the road to the 32-team field is rocky and could end prematurely as early as Tuesday evening.

Qarabag still can’t get going

After the aforementioned 1-0 first leg defeat in Poland, the Blue and Whites are now under pressure at home. In the last Conference League season, the Azerbaijanis lost only one of seven home games (vs. Olympique Marseille) and were able to keep their clean sheet in four of them. In only one of the aforementioned seven international home matches would the bet on the over 3.5 have gone through. We therefore do not believe in a goal spectacle on Tuesday evening either.

The challenge in the first CL qualifying round is made more difficult by the fact that the league traditionally starts relatively late in Azerbaijan. The Qurbanov team has not been convincing in the test matches so far either. They drew a flattering 2:2 against the German second division team Kiel and only managed a 1-1 draw against Craiova from Romania. Given the current situation, we would therefore refrain from betting on a home win between Qarabag Agdam and Lech Poznan.

As a result, we expect the Poles to progress, but they will have to watch out for Brazilian attacker Kady in particular. The 26-year-old right-winger is not only the most expensive player in the Azerbaijani champions’ line-up, but also advanced to become his team’s top scorer in the last European Cup season. Qarabag will need the Brazilian to be in top form if they are to have any hope of reaching the second qualifying round.

Predicted line-up of Qarabag Agdam:
Magomedaliyev; Vesovic, Medina, Medvedev, Bayramov; Almeida, Qarayev; Kady, Andrade, Zoubir; Wadji

Last matches played by Qarabag Agdam:

Champions League Qualifier
06/07/2022 – Lech Poznan 1 – 0 Qarabag FK

Cup
27/05/2022 – Qarabag FK (4)1 – 1(3) Zira

Premier League
21/05/2022 – Qarabag FK 4 – 1 FK Neftchi

15/05/2022 – Sabail 0 – 3 Qarabag FK

12/05/2022 – Qarabag FK 5 – 0 Sumqayit

Lech Posen – Statistics & current form

Lech Posen is undoubtedly one of the most successful club teams in Poland. Seven championships and five cup victories adorn the letterhead of the club named after Poland’s founder, Lech. Despite their glorious history, few would have expected the Blue and Whites to have such a strong season on the national stage before last season. While Poznan finished the 2020/21 season in eleventh place, the title surprisingly went to the country’s fifth-largest city last year.

For the first time since 2015/16, Lech Poznan are back in the UEFA Champions League. It’s no wonder that the Polish title holders are focusing all their attention on the qualifiers these days. This was also evident at the weekend, when they lost the Super Cup final against cup winners Rakow 0:2 in front of their home crowd.

The starting position plays into Poznan’s cards

However, this defeat should not be overestimated, as coach John van den Brom rested almost his entire first eleven. Only the two sixes Murawski and Karlström remained from the team that defeated Qarabag Agdam 1-0 in the first leg a few days earlier. For next Tuesday’s encounter, however, the Dutch coach, who replaced championship-winning coach Skorza in the summer and thus takes on a difficult legacy, will rotate back and field his strongest eleven.

Although Lech Poznan lost two out of three test matches in the summer preparation and have not yet reached the level of last season, we are confident that the Polish side, who are a bit stronger in terms of quality, will manage their advantage in the return match. With the help of a concentrated defensive performance, the aim will be to keep the score as close to zero as possible for as long as possible and then exploit the inevitable spaces as the game progresses. Should this succeed, there is much to suggest that the odds on double chance X2 in combination with a maximum of three goals in the match will pay off in the match between Qarabag Agdam and Lech Posen.

Predicted line-up of Lech Posen:
Rudko; Pereira, Satka, Milic, Rebocho; Murawski, Karlstrom; Skoras, Amaral, Tsitaishvili; Ishak

Last matches played by Lech Poznan:

Super Cup
10/07/2022 – Lech Poznan 0 – 2 Rakow Czestochowa

Champions League Qualifier
06/07/2022 – Lech Poznan 1 – 0 Qarabag FK

Ekstraklasa
21/05/2022 – Lech Poznan 2 – 1 Zaglebie Lubin

14/05/2022 – Warta Poznan 1 – 2 Lech Poznan

08/05/2022 – Piast Gliwice 1 – 2 Lech Poznan

Qarabag Agdam – Lech Posen Direct comparison / H2H balance

The first leg a week ago was the first and only meeting between these two clubs. A goal from Mikael Ishak gave Lech Poznan a narrow 1-0 victory. The second leg is scheduled for Tuesday in Azerbaijan. If Qarabag win by one goal difference, regardless of how high, the match will go into extra time.

Qarabag Agdam – Lech Poznan Bet

It is definitely risky to make a reliable prediction at this stage of the season. Especially, of course, when two teams face each other that have not even started the new season at national level. That makes it all the more important sometimes to check to what extent the clubs’ preparations are already advanced.

While the Azerbaijani champions will only be challenged in the domestic league for the first time in a few weeks, Lech Poznan will already start next weekend in the Polish Ekstraklasa. In terms of fitness, therefore, the guests should have the advantage. We also see John van den Brom’s team ahead in terms of quality, so we can understand why lower betting odds are being offered between Qarabag Agdam and Lech Posen on the Poles advancing.

We agree with the bookmakers’ assessment and also believe that the van den Brom team will make it to the next round. By the way, BildBet offers 1.55 as top odds. Even more interesting in the second leg Qarabag Agdam vs. Lech Poznan seems to be the bet on X2 & Under 3.5.