Who will keep their dream of reaching the top flight alive?
It is already clear that Qarabag Agdam and Ferencvaros Budapest will definitely reach a group stage in the European Cup. Whether the two national champions will go to the top flight, the Europa League or “only” the third-tier Conference League, however, has not yet been finally decided. In view of recent impressions, however, the clubs have every right to hope for maximum success.
The Azerbaijani subscription champions in particular attracted attention in the first two qualifying rounds against Lech Poznan and FC Zurich. The respective performances in front of a home crowd are certainly one of the main reasons why the home side are once again favourites with the bookmakers. Ahead of the first leg between Qarabag Agdam and Ferencvaros, the odds on a home win are currently 2.10 at the top, implying an almost 50% probability of occurrence.
However, the guests from Hungary should not be underestimated. Especially not after their impressive 4-1 away win at Slovan Bratislava in the previous round, which helped the Chercheso eleven punch their ticket to this third qualifying round in the first place. If the Green-Whites can build on that performance in Baku, it is definitely worth considering a prediction towards the double X2 chance between Qarabag Agdam and Ferencvaros.
Qarabag Agdam – Statistics & current form
Among the remaining clubs in the Champions League qualifiers, Qarabag Agdam is certainly one of the biggest outsiders. This thesis is primarily based on the low squad market value, which in total does not even exceed 15 million euros. With the Brazilian offensive player Kady and “ten” Zoubir, there are only two professionals who have a seven-figure market value.
However, coach Qurban Qurbanov’s team already proved in the first two qualifying rounds that these are often subjective figures. The Blue and Whites started as underdogs against both Polish champions Lech Poznan and FC Zurich, but were ultimately able to prevail.
Will Qarabag face their first real challenge on Wednesday?
On both occasions the club, originally from the Karabakh region but based in Baku since 1993 and the conflict there, lay the foundations for progress in front of a home crowd. The eleven-time Azerbaijani champions won 5-1 at home against Lech Poznan, reversing their 1-0 defeat in the first leg. Against FCZ, coached by Franco Foda, Agdam won 3-2 after 90 minutes.
Eight goals in two home games reads very promising, so we are quite surprised how low the odds are for the under 2.5 between Qarabag Agdam and Ferencvaros. In fact, the bookmakers tend to assume an under-goal match. An assessment that we do not necessarily share. At least the 1.5 goal mark should be broken, given the offensive qualities of both teams.
Apart from that, we would tend to refrain from betting on a home win, as both Lech Poznan and FC Zurich have also had weak starts to the season at national level. Ferencvaros can therefore be described as a different calibre and the first real yardstick. It is quite possible that the lack of match practice – the league in Azerbaijan does not start until next weekend – will have a negative effect.
Predicted line-up of Qarabag Agdam:
Mahammadaliyev; Vesovic, Medvedev, Medina, Cafarguilyev; Jankovic, Almeyda; Seydayev, Kady, Zoubir; Wadji
Last matches played by Qarabag Agdam:
Champions League Qualification
27/07/2022 – FC Zurich 2 – 2 Qarabag FK
19/07/2022 – Qarabag FK 3 – 2 FC Zurich
12/07/2022 – Qarabag FK 5 – 1 Lech Poznan
06/07/2022 – Lech Poznan 1 – 0 Qarabag FK
Cup
27/05/2022 – Qarabag FK (4)1 – 1(3) Zira
Ferencvaros – Statistics & current form
Ferencvaros last appearance in the Champions League group stage was just two years in the past. In 2020/21, the Hungarians somewhat surprisingly qualified for the main draw, but ultimately crashed out in a group with Dynamo Kiev, Juventus and Barcelona with just one point from six games and a goal difference of -12.
In the qualifiers at that time, the Hungarian top club benefited from the fact that all rounds were played in only one match instead of two until the play-offs. Nevertheless, the “Fradi” prevailed against Celtic Glasgow, Dinamo Zagreb or Malmö FF, among others. In 2022/23, the Green-Whites have once again set themselves the goal of jumping over all hurdles and securing a ticket to the group stage of the top flight for only the third time in the club’s history.
Will Ferencvaros play themselves into a frenzy again?
But the second qualifying round against Slovan Bratislava already threatened an early exit. Ferencvaros lost the first leg 2-1 in front of their home crowd and a week later they were under pressure in Slovakia. Thanks to an exhilarating 4:1 away win, they still managed to advance. It doesn’t need any further interpretation to say that this impressive victory away from home brought a lot of self-confidence. That’s exactly why we’re forcing a prediction in the direction of the visitors on Wednesday night between Qarabag Agdam and Ferencvaros.
This is also supported by the good start in the domestic league season. At the weekend, Puskas FC were beaten 1-0 at home. Coach Cherchesov deliberately did without some of his regular players in order to save them for the much more important qualifying match in Azerbaijan. No notable absences due to injuries are known either.
We therefore expect a rested and complete visiting team, which in our opinion is a bit stronger in terms of quality, has more competitive toughness and can rely on its solid defence for the first time away from home. The pressure is on the home side, which should also play into the Hungarians’ hands.
Predicted line-up of Ferencvaros:
Dibusz; Botka, Mmaee, Knoester, Civic; Laidouni, Esiti; Niguen, Zachariassen, Traore; Boli
Last matches played by Ferencvaros:
NB I
01/08/2022 – Ferencvaros 1 – 0 Puskas FC Academy
Champions League Qualifier
28/07/2022 – Slovan Bratislava 1 – 4 Ferencvaros
21/07/2022 – Ferencvaros 1 – 2 Slovan Bratislava
14/07/2022 – Ferencvaros 5 – 1 Tobol Qostanai
06/07/2022 – Tobol Qostanai 0 – 0 Ferencvaros
Qarabag Agdam – Ferencvaros Direct comparison / H2H balance
For the first time, the two clubs will face each other in an official competitive match at UEFA level. For Ferencvaros, it is also the first meeting against an Azerbaijani representative. Qarabag will also make their debut against a club from Hungary in Baku on Wednesday.
Qarabag Agdam – Ferencvaros Tip
Two national champions duel for one of the last tickets for the CL play-offs, which start in a fortnight. In fact, only six starting places are still up for grabs in the group stage of the top flight. It would be an outstanding success for both Qarabag Agdam and Ferencvaros to make it into the elite circle of Europe’s most important club competition.
Before that, however, a real acid test awaits, because in the run-up to the match between Qarabag Agdam and Ferencvaros, the bookmakers’ betting odds do not necessarily ensure that a clear favourite can be named. For the first leg in Baku, however, the home side are favoured, mainly due to their two good home performances in the previous qualifying rounds.
Although the club names do not necessarily indicate it, the Hungarian champions from Budapest are currently of a different calibre than the in-form Zurich side or the Polish title holders Lech Poznan. This is one of the reasons why we see the most promising value in the duel Qarabag Agdam vs Ferencvaros in the double chance X2 bet. The top odds are 1.80 and we are playing with five units.
