Will Eindhoven keep their chance of progressing?
The last home match in the current group stage has to be played by PSV Eindhoven in the Europa League without a crowd. Due to the partial lockdown in the Netherlands, no spectators are currently allowed at sporting events. However, this circumstance does not change anything about the starting position before the match against bottom-placed Sturm Graz.
PSV Eindhoven are the heavy favourites against Sturm Graz according to the odds. At the top, only 1.24 is offered in favour of the Dutch, who would have all the trumps in their own hands in terms of advancing in the event of an expected success on the last matchday. But maybe it will be the kickers from Styria who tip the scales…
The Blackies have been quite competitive on the international stage. Most recently, for example, they fought their way to a respectable draw with Spanish top club Real Sociedad. Their only defeat came in the first leg against Mario Götze and Co. in front of their home crowd, when they lost 1:4. This time, too, betting on a commanding victory for the favourites between PSV Eindhoven and Sturm Graz will be well rewarded.
PSV Eindhoven – Statistics & current form
Coach Roger Schmidt’s side have their backs to the wall ahead of the final two matchdays in the UEFA Europa League. Third in Group B behind Monaco and Real Sociedad, they are only one point behind the runners-up, but they face a real challenge in San Sebastian on the final matchday. In order for this game in the Basque country to become a real showdown for advancement, they need a must-win on Thursday evening at home against Sturm Graz.
On paper, this task is definitely doable, especially since the “Boeren” have already defeated Galatasaray (5:1) and FC Midtjylland (3:0) in the Champions League qualifiers this season. In the course of the Europa League group stage, however, there was only one disappointing point from the two home matches against Real Sociedad (2:2) and Monaco (1:2).
Home and offensive strength as X-factors
It is also clear, however, that with the Styrians, a smaller calibre is now coming to the Philips Stadion. Against this background, the chances of a home win between PSV Eindhoven and Sturm Graz are absolutely intact. Not least because in the domestic league six of seven games could be won in the own stadium. In five of the six victories mentioned, even a handicap bet (-1) would have been crowned with success.
In addition to the impressive results at national level, where Schmidt’s team currently leads the table with the same points as Ajax Amsterdam, the attack as the strongest part of the team is one of the main reasons why we expect a convincing victory with at least a two-goal difference on Thursday evening.
On the one hand, none of the four teams in Group B scored as many goals as PSV (seven). On the other hand, they scored a sensational 21 goals in seven home games in the league, an average of three per game. So it is quite possible that the Graz defence, similar to the 1:4 in the first leg, will again be confronted with enormous problems by the Eindhoven offensive power. Although German coach Roger Schmidt has to cope with a number of absentees, the starting eleven with ex-Bundesliga players Mario Götze, Phillip Max, Ritsu Doan and Phillip Mwene has nothing to hide in terms of quality.
Predicted line-up of PSV Eindhoven:
Drommel; Mwene, Ramalho, Boscagli, Max; Sangare, Van Ginkel, Gotze; Doan, Vinicius, Bruma
Last matches played by PSV Eindhoven:
Eredivisie
11/20 2021 – PSV Eindhoven 2 – 0 Vitesse Arnhem
11/07 2021 – Fortuna Sittard 1 – 4 PSV Eindhoven
Europa League Grp. B
11/04 2021 – AS Monaco 0 – 0 PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie
10/30 2021 – PSV Eindhoven 5 – 2 Twente Enschede
10/24 2021 – Ajax Amsterdam 5 – 0 PSV Eindhoven
Sturm Graz – Statistics & current form
The current Graz team will go down in the club’s history. After three previous defeats in the group stage, the Styrians were able to register in the Europa League for the first time three weeks ago. In a complete surprise, the Austrian Bundesliga club fought their way to a 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad and thus preserved their mini-chance of reaching third place, which would entitle them to continue the international season in the Conference League.
Admittedly, however, the positive outlook is limited, as Christian Ilzer’s team would need two wins to seriously entertain the hope of spending the winter on the European stage.
Among other things, the current state of the domestic league speaks against this. The Blackies have only won one of their last five matches. Most recently, the Blackies have failed to win three matches in a row.
The uncertainty in Graz is great
The defence in particular was more unstable than it has been for a long time. Ten goals conceded in just 270 minutes of play against teams like WAC or LASK is a disastrously high figure, which prompts us to check the odds between PSV Eindhoven and Sturm Graz on a home win with one or two goals conceded for the Austrians.
After a total of six consecutive games without a win and with only one point and one goal in four Europa League games, it is virtually impossible to make a prediction on a surprise coup for the visitors between PSV Eindhoven and Sturm Graz. Instead, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Ilzer eleven’s downward trend continues in Holland and the Blackies concede the next significant defeat.
Predicted line-up of Sturm Graz:
Siebenhandl; Affengruber, Wuthrich, Geyrhofer; Gazibegovic, Prass, Stankovic, Dante; Niangbo; Sarkaria, Yeboah
Last matches played by Sturm Graz:
Bundesliga
11/21 2021 – Sturm Graz 3 – 3 LASK
Europa League Grp. B
11/04 2021 – San Sebastian 1 – 1 Sturm Graz
Bundesliga
10/31 2021 – Sturm Graz 0 – 3 Wolfsberger AC
Cup
10/27 2021 – Sturm Graz 1 – 2 Ried
Bundesliga
10/24 2021 – Salzburg 4 – 1 Sturm Graz
PSV Eindhoven – Sturm Graz Direct comparison / H2H-balance
The first leg at the end of September was the only meeting between these two teams so far. PSV won 4:1 in the Merkur Arena in Graz and once again had the man of the match in Mario Götze. The ex-national player scored twice, one of them for his compatriot Phillip Max. Stankovic scored the goal for Sturm to make it 1:2 in the meantime.
While the Styrians lost five of their seven European matches against Dutch teams, Eindhoven improved their record against clubs from Austria to twelve victories in 17 attempts.
PSV Eindhoven – Sturm Graz Tip
In Group B, the last two matchdays will see a three-way battle for the two vacant places in the intermediate round of the Europa League. Monaco and Real Sociedad currently have the better chances. PSV Eindhoven, on the other hand, are third, one point behind the Basques and three points behind the Monegasques. Consequently, the only thing that counts for the Schmidt team on Thursday evening is a win at home.
We see this as very likely, especially as the Dutch already won the first leg 4:1 in Graz and generally like to play Austrian clubs. The crucial question is therefore how to pimp the betting between PSV Eindhoven and Sturm Graz in order to get an attractive value.
Here a handicap bet comes to mind for various reasons. On the one hand, because Eindhoven have scored the most goals in Group B so far and have also scored 21 times in seven home Eredivisie games. But on the other hand also because of the disastrous attacking defence in recent weeks. Ten goals conceded in the last three Bundesliga games speak for a certain instability and uncertainty at the Blackies.
