Does BVB open up PSG’s weaknesses?

Borussia Dortmund could not have been hit much harder in the draw for the Champions League preliminary round. In a group with Paris St. Germain, Newcastle United and AC Milan, the Black and Yellows actually need six good nights to finish in one of the top two places.

However, the bookmakers are even treating BVB as quite clear underdogs in Group F before the first matchday. In the run-up to the PSG vs. Dortmund match, betting on the German runners-up to progress brings the highest odds of 2.50.

This assessment is certainly partly due to the rather disappointing and problematic start to the new Bundesliga season, although coach Edin Terzic’s side were able to celebrate an important 4-2 victory in Freiburg on Saturday afternoon, thanks to a marked improvement after the break. Despite some unsatisfactory results and performances, the ball club from Westphalia is still unbeaten on the road in 2023/24. The star ensemble from the city of love definitely cannot claim that…

For Borussia’s unbeaten streak to continue after Tuesday night’s CL opener, they will need a courageous as well as focused performance at Prinzenpark.

PSG – Statistics & current form

With the “Trio Infernale” Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi and Neymar, Paris St. Germain have regularly been among the close contenders for the Champions League title in recent years. In 2023/24, the list of contenders for the trophy will have to be somewhat broader to put the reigning French champions in the role of favourites. After several prominent departures, the collective is expected to make a splash this season.

However, the fact that the team is still finding its feet under new coach Luis Enrique has become clear in the course of the still fresh Ligue 1 season. Only two of their five games were victorious. At the moment, they are only in fifth place in the interim rankings.

The dress rehearsal last Friday was lost 3-2 against OGC Nice. For the fourth match in a row, they conceded at least one goal. Also for the fourth time in a row, a bet on over 2.5 and even over 3.5 would have gone through. Based on these results, the odds on Over bets seem to be of interest again on Tuesday night between PSG and Dortmund.

Which face does the new PSG show?

Even in the recent past, however, it was not uncommon for the star ensemble from the French capital to fail to reach their own performance maximum at national level, only to show a better side in the Champions League. Especially in the group phase, the red and blue hardly showed any weakness in recent years. It is no coincidence that they have reached at least the knockout round eleven times in a row!

The home record in the CL group stage is also impressive. In fact, only one of the last 33 home matches of this kind was lost (26 wins, six draws). Eight unbeaten games in a row in front of their own fans in the preliminary round, seven of which were victorious, underlines the role of PSG as favourites against Dortmund according to the odds.

From BVB’s point of view, Kylian Mbappé, who has scored 29 (!) goals in his last 22 Champions League matches and is now the third most successful Frenchman after Benzema and Henry with 40 goals in this competition, must of course be watched out for. If Luis Enrique, who has won 73% of his matches in the Champions League so far (24/33), continues to improve his already outstanding and record-breaking record, it is very likely that a prediction of Mbappé as the goalscorer between PSG and Dortmund will come true.

Predicted PSG line-up:

Paris Saint-Germain (Expected line-up) 4-3-3

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Before and even during the first international break of this new season, doom and gloom was the order of the day at Borussia Dortmund. After a disappointing start with five points from three Bundesliga games as well as weak performances in Bochum (1:1) and at home against Heidenheim (2:2), Edin Terzic was already in the crossfire of criticism in the media. In fact, the Black and Yellows lacked almost everything on the first three match days that almost helped them to the championship trophy in the previous season.

Since Saturday, the fear that the dramatic 2022/23 Bundesliga final could still have an impact on BVB performances in the medium and long term has given way to a new confidence. A good second half in the away match in Freiburg was enough for this, in which Borussia also benefited from a sending-off against the Breisgauer and only steered the match in their own direction afterwards. The 4-2 win in the south of the country was nevertheless an immensely important three points for Terzic and Co.

Terzic has to make tough decisions

Whether it was the much-cited chest burster for a positive continuation of this season will be seen on Tuesday evening in the Champions League at Paris St. Germain and next weekend in the league at home against the strong VfL Wolfsburg.

The fact is that those responsible around Sebastian Kehl and Aki Watzke would have been satisfied with a simple point win at Prinzenpark during the week. However, of BVB’s 14 CL matches against French opponents, not a single one ended in a draw. But the most recent three matches in the preliminary round of the 2022/23 Champions League did, and they were still enough to advance. In the round of 16, however, the Terzic team was eliminated by Chelsea.

It will be exciting to see which personnel the still ailing coach will send out on the pitch on Tuesday. Will the centre-back pairing of Schlotterbeck and Hummels once again take precedence over Süle? Has Marco Reus recommended himself for a starting eleven after his substitution and is Niklas Füllkrug not the more suitable striker compared to Sebastien Haller at the current stage? With regard to the last question, it should at least be noted that Haller has scored eleven (!) goals in his last ten CL matches, most of them for Ajax Amsterdam. Füllkrug, meanwhile, would make his debut in the most important club competition in Europe on Tuesday…

Predicted Dortmund line-up:

Borussia Dortmund (Expected line-up) 4-3-3

PSG – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H balance

To date, there have been four meetings between these two clubs at international level. In 2010/11, the clubs drew in the group stage of the Europa League in both the first and second legs. In 2019/20, the home side always came out on top in the last 16 of the Champions League. Dortmund won 2-1, while PSG won 2-0 in the second leg, meaning the French side marched into the last eight and eventually even reached the final, but lost 1-0 to FC Bayern under Thomas Tuchel’s stewardship.

PSG – Dortmund Tip

The first matchday in the group phase of the UEFA Champions League is a tough one from a German perspective. On Wednesday, Union Berlin travels to Madrid and Bayern welcomes Manchester United. On Tuesday, of course, the focus is on Borussia’s visit to Paris St. Germain

Lower betting odds are offered on the home win between PSG and Dortmund on the three-way market. Nevertheless, these fall even slightly higher than expected. The background to this is the French champions’ disappointing start to the season in Ligue 1 so far. Two wins from five games do not meet expectations, nor do the six goals conceded already, three of which came on Friday in the 3-2 home defeat to Nice.

But because not everything is going according to plan for the Black and Yellows either, and the still unbeaten BVB will definitely have to step it up a few gears to take anything worthwhile to the Prinzenpark, we are deliberately refraining from betting on the outcome of the match.

Instead, our focus is on betting on at least three goals in the course of the match between PSG and Dortmund. Although the top odds of 1.38 are not particularly high, we are still confident that we will see a relatively high-scoring duel given the weakening defensive lines and the high-quality offensive players.