Will the Rouges-et-Bleus strike back now?
Borussia Dortmund managed to open the door to the 2024 Champions League final last Wednesday with a 1:0 home win. However, in two of the last three cases in which the Black & Yellows have won the first leg of the knockout round of the top flight, they have been eliminated by a correspondingly heavy away defeat in the second leg. Including once against the Rouges-et-Bleus in 2019/20 (2-0 defeat at the Parc des Princes after a 2-1 home win). The prediction for PSG v Dortmund is therefore that the team from the Seine will progress
However, the players from the French capital need goals to do so. That’s not a foregone conclusion against BVB in the top flight. No team kept a white vest in the Champions League more often in 2023/24 than the Westphalians (five times). And yet the prediction for PSG v Dortmund must also take into account that the Rouges-et-Bleus have always scored at least one goal in 36 of their last 38 Champions League home games (93 goals in total).
It should also be noted that the Westphalians have been lucky several times in the competition. This is evidenced not only by Paris Saint-Germain’s double aluminum pitch in the first leg. But also the fact that the Black & Yellows’ expected goals against average in the Champions League 2023/24 is 19.7, while they have actually conceded just nine goals. So if BVB want to pass the acid test on the Seine, the Bundesliga club must not hide, but must also be active in front of goal.
In this context, we find a lot of value in the bet that the second leg will be much livelier. We are therefore betting on goals on both sides. However, because PSG already proved their comeback qualities in the quarter-final against Barcelona, we also believe that Dortmund will only be able to save themselves in extra time with a result of 1-2 or 2-3. The alternative of betting straightforwardly on tip 1 at Interwetten is therefore very coherent
PSG – Statistics & current form
Paris Saint-Germain already have the national championship in the bag. As Ligue 1 has not been able to produce an international title winner for some time, the Ligue de Football Professionnel decided without further ado not to play at the weekend, as they had already done in the quarter-finals. This allowed the Rouges-et-Bleus to concentrate fully on the second leg against the Black & Yellows.
This measure paid off in the quarter-finals. A 3:2 home defeat against Barcelona was followed by a 4:1 away win in Catalonia. PSG could now become the first team ever to turn a game around after losing the first leg in both the quarter-finals and semi-finals of the Champions League
PSG have already achieved a turnaround against Dortmund
However, the home record of the team from the Seine does not read too well. In the knockout phase of the Champions League, the Rouges-et-Bleus have lost four of their last six home games (two wins). Moreover, the capital club have twice played at home in the semi-finals of the top flight. They also lost at home to AC Milan (0:1) in 1994/95 and Manchester City (1:2) in 2020/21.
Nevertheless, the odds for PSG v Dortmund clearly favor Luis Enrique’s side, and there are of course numerous arguments in their favor. For example, the Parisiens have not lost any of their three home games against BVB (two wins, one draw). With two 2-0 wins and a goalless draw, they have not conceded a goal in all three. In 2019/20, they also eliminated the Black & Yellows once before in the knockout round with a 2-0 home win, which followed a 2-1 first-leg defeat in Westphalia.
PSG is very accurate in Champions League home matches
In addition, hardly any other team in the top flight is as effective at home as the Rouges-et-Bleus. In only two of their last 38 Champions League home games have the capital side failed to score (in both cases, the opponents were Bayern Munich).
In Kylian Mbappé, Luis Enrique also has arguably the most dangerous weapon up front in the Champions League since Messi moved to the MLS and Ronaldo to Saudi Arabia. The 25-year-old has scored 13 goals in his last twelve Champions League home games and came very close to scoring against Borussia in the first leg, when the inside of the post saved the game for the Westphalians. It is unlikely that Hummels and Schlotterbeck will be able to completely shut him down again.
PPG’s expected line-up:
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Borussia Dortmund killed two birds with one stone in their 1-0 first-leg win over PSG. Firstly, the Westphalians secured a good starting position for the second leg. And secondly, they picked up the missing points for the UEFA rankings, which will give the Bundesliga a secure fifth place in the 2024/25 Champions League. As a result, fifth-placed BVB rewarded themselves by qualifying for the top flight once again.
Although Edin Terzic subsequently rotated his entire squad in the Bundesliga – only Kobel remained in goal, all ten outfield players from the first leg were rested – the disengaged Westphalians celebrated a 5:1 victory over FC Augsburg despite their “second guard”. The Black & Yellows now head to the Seine with the corresponding momentum
A home win in the first leg was rarely half the battle for Dortmund
However, BVB have always found it much more difficult to win on foreign grounds than with the yellow wall behind them. The Westphalians have also been eliminated in the knockout round of the Champions League in two of the last three matches, after initially winning the first leg at home.
Now, too, the tendency is for the Rouges-et-Bleus to progress against Dortmund. This leaves Terzic’s team with the underdog role at the Parc des Princes. A role, however, in which the Black & Yellows already felt very comfortable in the group stage. As is well known, they quickly won Group of Death F ahead of PSG, Milan and Newcastle
How brave will Dortmund be at the Parc des Princes?
A look at the numbers in the background, however, also reveals that Dortmund have overperformed in the Champions League this season. With only nine goals conceded against an Expected Goals Average of 19.3 (a difference of 10.3!), there has been a lot of match luck involved at times – as was the case in the first leg when the French side conceded twice.
The fact that the Westphalians are the team that has kept the most white vests in the current Champions League season (already five) should therefore not be overestimated. It is clear that there will be more to the Seine than parking the bus in the penalty area. So if BVB really want to go to Wembley, it will be difficult to avoid scoring goals of their own.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
PSG – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 2 – 3 – 2
The two teams have met seven times so far. The 1-0 first-leg win for the Westphalians means the score is now temporarily completely even. However, Borussia Dortmund have yet to win much in three matches at the Parc des Princes. PSG have played the Black & Yellows three times at home. On all three occasions, the Rouges-et-Bleus remained unbeaten and without conceding a goal (two 2-0 wins and a 0-0 draw).
PSG – Dortmund betting tip
In our PSG vs Dortmund prediction, we should let the wish be father of the thought and concentrate on the hard facts. And they show that BVB needed that little bit of luck not only to reach the semi-finals, but also to win the first leg.
Black & Yellows only conceded nine goals. However, the expected value was 19.3 goals conceded. It is all the more likely that this discrepancy will be evened out again and that the Rouges-et-Bleus will bring their penetrating power to the Parc des Princes, where they have failed to score in just two of their last 38 Champions League home games.
Phrased differently: BVB parking the bus at their own penalty area and bricking their way to Wembley seems almost categorically out of the question. In this respect, the Westphalians will almost certainly need their own goals to finish the job on the Seine. We expect Borussia to be correspondingly brave and are banking on both teams scoring
