Two top teams still unbeaten
With two wins and a draw, PSG and Benfica Lisbon remain unbeaten in first and second place in Group H of the Champions League. Whoever wins the second leg between the two group heads will take a giant step towards the last 16.
The balance is clearly in favour of the Rouge-et-Bleu, who are behind in the direct comparison with the Portuguese, but have not lost any of their three home games against the Encarnados so far (two wins, one draw). The bookmakers’ odds on PSG against Benfica Lisbon are therefore very clearly in favour of the Parisians.
However, Benfica Lisbon already sold themselves extremely dearly in the first leg last Wednesday. In the 1-1 draw at the Estádio da Luz, the Portuguese side missed no less than four great chances and could well have been the winners. Considering the momentum of the Encarnados – Benfica are still unbeaten in 16 matches in the 2022/23 season (14 wins, two draws) – the Portuguese can be expected to do something at the Parc des Princes.
Roger Schmidt’s side should at least be able to score the away goal, which is why we see the greatest value in betting on goals on both sides for PSG against Benfica Lisbon.
PSG – Statistics & current form
Paris Saint-Germain did manage to win the tenth national championship in the club’s history in the 2021/22 season, equalling AS Saint-Étienne’s record. However, the Rouge-et-Bleu did not win the Coupe de France or any other title.
The Parisians also lost out in the Champions League at the round of 16 to eventual winners Real Madrid, which is why the club’s managers once again changed their coach for the new season. Christophe Galtier, the man who surprisingly led the Parisians to the championship with OSC Lille two years ago, took over the reins.
Still unbeaten in 14 competitive games in the 2022/23 season
So far, the record under the 56-year-old has been impressive. PSG won the Trophée des Champions 4-0 against Nantes in their first competitive game under Galtier, before going on to win Ligue 1 and the Champions League. The Rouge-et-Bleu are still unbeaten in 14 competitive games in the 2022/23 season (eleven wins, three draws).
But in the last English week of all things, the varnish of the highly decorated troupe from the Seine got two small scratches. First, the Parisians had to be happy not to have lost in the 1-1 draw with Benfica Lisbon, and then they did not get beyond a goalless draw in Reims on Saturday in league action when they were outnumbered.
Five Champions League home wins in a row
With a home win over the Portuguese, the newly-crowned French record champions would now be as good as certain of reaching the last 16. The bookmakers have little doubt that PSG’s tip 1 against Benfica Lisbon will work out in the end.
After all, the Rouge-et-Bleu are an absolute home power and have won all of their last five home matches in the top flight. In addition, in seven attempts a club from Portugal has never won at the Parc des Princes (two draws, five defeats).
Predicted line-up of PSG:
Donnarumma – Mendes – Pereira – Marquinhos – Ramos – Hakimi – Verratti – Vitinha – Neymar – Messi – Mbappé
Last matches played by PSG:
Ligue 1
09/10/2022 – Reims 0 – 0 Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League Grp. H
06/10/2022 – Benfica 1 – 1 Paris Saint-Germain
Ligue 1
02/10/2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 2 – 1 Nice
19/09/2022 – Lyon 0 – 1 Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League Grp. H
15/09/2022 – Maccabi Haifa 1 – 3 Paris Saint-Germain
Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form
Benfica Lisbon are not only 37-time national champions, but also won the European Champions Cup twice in 1961 and 1962. Since then, however, the legendary Guttmann curse has hung over the Encarnados, who have reached eight international finals, but have always failed to win the title – most recently in the 2014 Europa League final.
Because they only managed third place in the NOS league last season, there were also several changes at the Águias (the Eagles) in the summer. Roger Schmidt was the first German coach in the club’s history to take charge of the traditional club.
Still unbeaten in 16 competitive games in the 2022/23 season
Benfica Lisbon have had a successful run since the 55-year-old took over. In the qualifying rounds for the Champions League, nothing went wrong against Midtjylland and Kiev, while at the same time a series started in the league.
The Encarnados currently lead the table in Portugal’s top division with 25 out of a possible 27 points. With seven points from a possible nine in the Champions League, the Águias are also still unbeaten in 2022/23 – 14 wins and two draws from 16 competitive matches.
With a 2-1 away win in Turin on just their second matchday
With a correspondingly strong tailwind, the Schmidt eleven will go into the return match against the Rouge-et-Bleu, whom they already had on the brink of defeat last Wednesday. It was only because of four missed chances that the final score at the Estádio da Luz was “only” a 1-1 draw.
Nevertheless, this match showed that results like the 2-1 away win at Juventus Turin on matchday two did not come out of the blue. All the more surprising, then, that betting sites are all but ruling out the Encarnados’ away win at the Parc des Princes.
Predicted line-up of Benfica Lisbon:
Vlachodimos – Grimaldo – Otamendi – A. Silva – Bah – Fernández – Luís – Mário – R. Silva – Neres – Ramos
Last matches played by Benfica Lisbon:
Liga Portugal
08/10/2022 – Benfica 4 – 2 Rio Ave
Champions League Grp. H
06/10/2022 – Benfica 1 – 1 Paris Saint-Germain
Liga Portugal
02/10/2022 – Vitoria de Guimaraes 0 – 0 Benfica
18/09/2022 – Benfica 5 – 0 Maritimo
Champions League Grp. H
15/09/2022 – Juventus FC 1 – 2 Benfica
PSG – Benfica Lisbon Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 2 – 2 – 3
There have been seven competitive matches between the two clubs so far and with three wins, the Portuguese are narrowly leading the head-to-head comparison. At the Parc des Princes in Paris, however, Benfica have never won in three away games so far (one draw, two defeats).
PSG – Benfica Lisbon
The forecast for PSG against Benfica Lisbon goes to the home-strong Rouge-et-Bleu. However, the Encarnados underlined that the in-form Portuguese should be taken into account, not only in their 2-1 away win at Juventus Turin, but also in the first leg against Paris, in which four great chances went unused.
Consistent with their unbeaten run of 16 competitive matches in 2022/23, and having scored at least one goal in 15 of those 16 games, the Schmidt team should be confident of at least an away goal at the Parc des Princes.
