How weakened will PSG be going into the Bayern game?

Of course there are games in the group stage of the Champions League that are very interesting. For many clubs, however, there is nothing at stake early on, so that many games have more of the appeal of a Super League that is very much under criticism. But now it’s time for the knockout rounds. This is the European Cup that the fans love. From now on, there will be no more tactics and no more B-formations. In the clash between PSG and Bayern, our tip shows that anything is possible when two of the continent’s best teams meet.

There are many interesting statistics in the premier league and even more that speak in favour of FC Bayern when it is not against Paris Saint-Germain. The French have the highest winning percentage of all teams that have played ten or more games against FCB in the Champions League. There have been eleven duels in the top flight and the reigning French champions are 6:5 on wins.

Nevertheless, Bayern are rated as razor-thin favourites by our tested betting providers, even in this first leg at the Parc des Princes. Overall, however, it will be a duel of equals. It’s just a pity that not all the superstars will be able to play in this big match. Nevertheless, this encounter has enormous appeal.

The pressure in this first leg on the Seine should be more on the French to come out on top in this encounter. This first match will be played in Paris because Christophe Galtier’s team surprisingly only finished second in the group stage behind Benfica Lisbon, while the visitors from Germany secured a commanding first place. At first glance, however, it still sounds very much as if a prediction of a draw in the first leg should be a good choice between PSG and Bayern.

PSG – Statistics & current form

Paris Saint-Germain’s priorities are clearly set. The national tasks take a back seat when the Champions League anthem sounds. The investors from the desert want the trophy at last, even if they have to do without a title in Ligue 1 or the Coupe de France. In the French Cup, Christoph Galtier’s team recently lost to Olympique Marseille.

Defeats bad for confidence

In Ligue 1, however, the reigning champions are still relatively unchallenged at the top with 54 points from 23 games. The first chaser from Marseille is five points behind. However, Paris will not go into Tuesday’s first leg with a broad chest, as they recently suffered two defeats in a row. This means that the French title holders will be slight underdogs ahead of this clash between PSG and Bayern, according to the odds.

However, one should not overstate these defeats. Last weekend, Christophe Galtier played Monaco in Ligue 1 with a slightly better B eleven and picked up a 3-1 defeat. However, many stars were not even in the line-up, so there is only limited knowledge to be gained from that encounter. For example, it was only 16-year-old Warren Zaire-Emery who scored the goal for the Parisians.

On Tuesday, however, he will tend not to get any playing time. So others will have to provide the goals, but that is not PSG’s problem anyway. In the last 32 home games in the Champions League, Paris have only failed to score once. However, the French champions are also vulnerable defensively. In the six group matches, Paris Saint-Germain did not concede a single goal.

In terms of personnel, the focus is primarily on Kylian Mbappe. There is a lot of guesswork surrounding his thigh injury. However, the superstar will definitely be out on Tuesday, if the experts are to be believed. World champion Lionel Messi, on the other hand, is likely to have recovered from his injury and will be part of the team. Otherwise, only ex-Munich player Renato Sanches will probably be absent due to injury.

Injured and suspended PSG players:
No information available.

Last matches of PSG:

Ligue 1
11/02/2023 – AS Monaco 3 – 1 Paris Saint-Germain

Coupe de France
09/02/2023 – Marseille 2 – 1 Paris Saint-Germain

Ligue 1
04/02/2023 – Paris Saint-Germain 2 – 1 Toulouse

02/02/2023 – Montpellier 1 – 3 Paris Saint-Germain

30/01/2023 – Paris Saint-Germain 1 – 1 Reims

Bayern – Statistics & current form

It’s strange that there is pressure on the kettle at FC Bayern. There are a few sideshows such as the team meeting without a coach or the now almost legendary interview of Manuel Neuer. But all in all, things are going very well for Bayern. They are fighting for a place in the quarter-finals against Paris in the top flight and Julian Nagelsmann’s team has already reached this round in the DFB Cup.

Unbeaten in 19 games

Good, things are tighter in the Bundesliga than you are used to with Bayern. Although the record champions are at the top of the league table, they have two stubborn pursuers in Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund. In addition, the Munich team has not lost in 19 competitive matches. There were six victories in the group stage of the top division. It doesn’t sound like you have to predict a defeat for the German champions between PSG and Bayern right now.

Although the Bavarians have not always looked confident of late, they have already won three in a row. Last weekend, Bayern did not have to stretch themselves much at home against VfL Bochum. Before the break, it was Thomas Müller who gave his colours a 1:0 lead. After the changeover, Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry increased the lead to 3:0. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting did not score, but has already shown how important his goals are for Bayern this season.

In terms of personnel, however, there are definitely bigger problems for Bayern. Sadio Mane, Lucas Hernandez, Manuel Neuer, Noussair Mazraoui and Ryan Gravenberch are all injured. Thomas Müller is injured and the 2014 world champion could also be short of time. Instead, the three winter newcomers Yann Sommer, Joao Cancelo and Daley Blind are on the roster of the German record champions.

Last games of Bayern:

Bundesliga
11/02/2023 – Bayern Munich 3 – 0 VfL Bochum

05/02/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 2 – 4 Bayern Munich

DFB Cup
02/02/2023 – Mainz 05 0 – 4 Bayern Munich

Bundesliga
29/01/2023 – Bayern Munich 1 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt

25/01/2023 – Bayern Munich 1 – 1 1 FC Cologne

PSG – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H balance

There have been eleven direct duels between Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich in the Champions League, plus one test match. Interestingly, there has never been a draw between these two teams. The biggest clash between these two teams took place in the 2020 final in Lisbon, where Bayern won 1-0 with a goal from Kingsley Coman.

Afterwards, however, the Parisians were already able to return the favour. In the quarter-finals of the 2020/21 season, PSG won 3-2 at the Allianz Arena. In the second leg, Bayern won 1-0 after a goal by Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. At the time, however, the away goals rule had not yet been abolished, so the French made it to the semi-finals.

PSG – Bayern Tip

Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting once played for Paris Saint-Germain and the attacker obviously knows how to score against his former club and where the goals are at Prinzenpark. After all, he scored against PSG in the last two direct duels.

As far as the outcome of this first leg is concerned, anything is possible. Not for nothing are the prices very close together. However, the Parisians have recently suffered two defeats in a row, with a B eleven or not, and will have to do without one of their greatest weapons in Kylian Mbappe on Tuesday. Therefore, we do not expect the French to win this duel.

But we expect them to score. Paris basically always score and have not scored once in the group stage of the current Champions League. In the PSG vs Bayern tip, this sounds very much like both camps will be able to cheer at least one goal. We reckon that the decision on the quarter-final will only be made in the second leg and can imagine the first draw ever between these two clubs. Therefore, we have decided to play the betting odds on a draw between PSG and Bayern with goals from both teams.