Will the second division team secure a place in the semi-finals?

A classic David and Goliath constellation awaits us in the FA Cup quarterfinals. The only remaining second division club, Preston North End, will face the Champions League quarter-finalist from Birmingham, who will challenge Paris St. Germain in the Champions League in ten days, in the last eight at home. On paper, the tip for Unai Emery’s team should be a mere formality between Preston and Aston Villa.

However, it should not be ignored in advance of this encounter that the hosts from the north-west of the country have not lost a home game in any competition since the beginning of November. Nevertheless, PNE are far from being one of the top teams in the second-tier Championship, which is why the quality disadvantage could become the crux of the matter in the Preston vs. To make matters worse, host coach Heckingbottom still has to do without important players.

It is therefore hardly surprising that the odds between Preston and Aston Villa paint a clear picture in favor of the guests, who, in view of the upcoming tasks and heavy workload in the coming (English) weeks, may make use of the entire squad. Nevertheless, it would be a huge surprise if the Villans did not leave the pitch as winners after regular time.

Preston – Statistics & current form

English football will always be closely associated with Preston North End. In 1889, the club from Lancashire was the first to win the league title. The Lilywhites were also the first to win the league and the FA Cup double, but they have not been represented in the English top flight for over 60 years. Currently, the team, managed by Paul Heckingbottom, is playing in the second division of the Championship. With a ten-point lead over the playoff places and a nine-point lead over the relegation zone, they should remain there beyond the end of the season.

Preston North End are not easy to beat at home

To be honest, the path to this FA Cup quarter-final was primarily down to luck in the draw. In fact, the Blue and Whites did not have to overcome any Premier League opponents in the first three rounds. What’s more, their successes against Charlton Athletic, Wycombe Wanderers and Burnley FC, who fielded a B-team, all came at home. Now, they face their first big test against Aston Villa Football Club. It is clear that the team from the Deepdale district will have to rise above themselves to reach the semi-finals of the oldest cup competition in the world for the first time since 1963/64.

At least there should be no lack of self-confidence, because PNE has only lost two of the previous 19 league games at home. The Heckingbottom XI have remained unbeaten in their own stadium 12 times. The last Championship defeat in front of their home fans was at the beginning of November. However, this supposedly remarkable series has to be put into perspective in that there were only seven wins in total and the majority of the home games ended in a draw (12x). For a X after 90 minutes, the betting odds between Preston and Aston Villa on Sunday are 4.70 at the top.

Incidentally, only West Bromwich Albion (18) have more draws to their name than the Lilywhites (17), who have recently found it extremely difficult to create and convert chances. They have only scored more than one goal in one of their last nine league matches. In the league comparison, there are only four clubs that have scored less often than the traditional club. To make matters worse, a dozen key players will be missing at the weekend for various reasons: Greenwood, Osmajic, Lesdon, Potts, Kesler-Hayden and Porteous.

Provisional line-up:
Woodman – Lindsay, Hughes, Gibson – Meghoma, Whiteman, Thórdarson, Brady – Frökjaer-Jensen – Riis, Keane

Aston Villa – statistics & current form

Aston Villa Football Club is having a good season so far. Although some experts feared in the summer that the men from Birmingham would have to pay tribute to the multiple stresses of the Champions League, all of the season’s goals are still within reach in spring 2025 or, as in the case of reaching the CL quarter-finals, have already been exceeded.

Although Emery’s charges have recently dropped to ninth place in the league, they are still only four points behind the fourth-placed team. Before many important matches against direct competitors are on the agenda in the next few weeks, the dream of the first FA Cup triumph since 1957 should live on. In principle, the chances are good, because even on the three-way market, the Preston vs. Aston Villa odds on an away win after regular time are below 1.50. According to the bookmaker, the Villans are therefore almost 70% likely to win after 90 minutes in the away game at Deepdale.

Is Emery going to field his best team?

Incidentally, for the first time this FA Cup season, the CL quarter-finalist will be playing away on Sunday. The first three matches against West Ham, Tottenham and Cardiff City were all won at home. Although Aston Villa have had problems away from home in the current PL season and only occupy 14th place in the separate guest ranking, I am confident that the difference in quality will tip the scales in favor of Emery’s team in the end.

It is quite possible that the highly decorated coach will mix up his starting lineup a bit in view of the league game against Brighton next Wednesday and the subsequent games against Nottingham and Paris St. Germain, taking into account the players who played for their national teams during the international break.

This in turn could lead to the favorites having to exercise patience and possibly only being able to exploit their advantages during the second half. This is also the reason for my approach of making a prediction for Under 1.5 (1st half) in the Interwetten app before the knockout duel between Preston and Aston Villa. Alternatively, you have the option of placing a special bet with Winamax that the visitors from Birmingham will win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0. This comes with a top odds of 2.85.

Predicted lineup:
Martínez – Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne – McGinn, Kamara, Tielemans – Rogers, Asensio, Rashford

Preston – Aston Villa H2H

Since a large part of the encounters between these teams took place many decades ago and even the last direct duel dates from the joint 2017/18 Championship season, the head-to-head is negligible. Nevertheless, it may be interesting to know that PNE has already eliminated their upcoming opponents from the FA Cup three times. Twice in their home stadium at Deepdale.

Preston vs. Aston Villa tip

A second division team still in the FA Cup quarterfinals. However, the air is likely to be very thin for Preston North End on Sunday. At home against Aston Villa, the Lilywhites are the clear underdogs, although an impressive statistic should encourage all supporters of the hosts. Since the beginning of November, Heckingbottom’s team have not lost a home game. However, the 14th-placed team in the Championship also has problems scoring goals and winning games. The majority of the encounters ended in a draw.

Apart from that, the Villans are now facing an opponent who is in the Champions League quarter-finals, still has their sights set on a European Cup place in the Premier League and has plenty of individual quality at their disposal. I therefore do not believe in a coup by the home side and instead tend to tip an away win with a maximum of four goals in the game before the Preston vs. Aston Villa encounter. The top odds of 1.78 can be found at Betano. My stake is six units.