Will the Blaugrana set the course for progress early on?
Even though Shakhtyor Donetsk and Royal Antwerp were considered the big outsiders in Group H, the betting companies thought FC Barcelona and FC Porto had a good chance of making it through to the Champions League. As expected, both teams started with a treble, so that the winner of this match would become the undisputed leader of the table. According to the bookmakers, the odds on a win for the Blaugrana against Porto against Barcelona are higher.
After all, the FCB have won all of their last four competitive games against the Dragões and have not conceded a goal in three of those four duels. However, the Catalans’ recent away record reads less than fearsome. Barca have lost four of their last six away games in the Champions League group stage. Nevertheless, our prediction for Porto against Barcelona leans towards a three-goal win for the Blaugrana.
The Catalans also enjoyed a successful dress rehearsal at the weekend in a 1-0 win over Sevilla, while FC Porto suffered a 1-0 defeat to Benfica Lisbon on the domestic stage, which saw the Dragões slip to third place behind the two prestigious capital clubs. Nevertheless, Porto could start a Champions League group stage with two wins for the first time in eleven years.
However, given that the Dragões lost their first group game 4-0 to Club Bruges in front of their own fans a year ago, we think Sérgio Conceição’s side have only a slim chance of picking up a point.
Porto – Statistics & current form
Forto have not only won 30 national championships, but have also won the Champions League and the European Cup of Champions twice, in 1987 and 2004, both of which they topped off with World Cup triumphs.
The Dragões have also been a perennial favourite in the top flight. Only once in the last twelve years did the Azuis e brancos (the blue and white) miss out on qualification for the Champions League. In seven of the last eleven cases, moreover, the trip went beyond the preliminary round.
The first six-point start in eleven years is possible
Even in the face of underdogs Shakhtyor Donetsk and Royal Antwerp, FC Porto will again be aiming to reach at least the last 16 of the top flight. The Dragões already set the course for this on the first matchday, when the Ukrainians were defeated 3:1 away at Hamburg’s Volksparkstadion.
For the first time since the 2012/13 season (then still under Vítor Pereira), the Azuis e brancos could even win the first two group matches of a Champions League season. Most recently, however, Porto lost their first home game of the group stage in both 2021 (1:5 against Liverpool) and 2022 (0:4 against Brugge) with a four-goal difference.
Third in the table in Portugal after failed dress rehearsal
Aggravatingly, Sérgio Conceição’s squad also made a mess of their dress rehearsal. In the important league match against reigning champions Benfica Lisbon, the Dragões suffered a 1-0 defeat on Friday evening, which once again left them in third place in the table.
Even against this backdrop, the Azuis e brancos are only outsiders in their own stadium. The odds on Porto vs. Barcelona are heavily stacked in favour of the visitors from Catalonia, against whom FCP have lost all of their last four international matches.
Predicted Porto line-up:
FC Porto (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
FC Barcelona have already celebrated five overall victories in the Champions League (or the European Champion Clubs’ Cup). The last time the Blaugrana triumphed was in the summer of 2015, and in the following five years they always made it to at least the quarter-finals of the knockout phase before reaching the last 16 for the first time in 14 years in 2020/21.
Recently, however, the Catalans have gone completely awry in the top flight. FCB have missed out on the knockout rounds twice in a row, which continues to gnaw at the pride of the 27-time Spanish champions, who won La Liga this summer with a commanding ten-point lead over Real Madrid.
Haven’t yet lost any of their eleven competitive games in the 2023/24 season
The aim now is to return to the glory days on the international stage. Barca started with a small exclamation mark on the first matchday. The Blaugrana beat outsiders Royal Antwerp 5:0 and thus secured themselves the top spot in the table.
If the betting now goes in favour of an away win for the Catalans against Barcelona, this would already be a first big step towards staying in the Champions League for the winter. The current form is certainly in favour of the Xavi team, which has remained unbeaten in eleven matches of the 2023/24 season (nine wins, two draws).
Lost four of last six away matches in CL preliminary round
In particular, however, things have not gone well away from home for the Blaugrana, who have lost four of their last six matches on foreign soil in the Champions League group stage (two wins). That equates to as many European away defeats as in the 43 previous Champions League preliminary round guest matches (26 wins, 13 draws).
The last time the Catalans lost their first away game in the preliminary round of the Champions League was in two consecutive years without scoring. Last year they lost 2-0 at Bayern, while two years ago Barca went down 3-0 at Benfica Lisbon. It was their first defeat in Portugal after five consecutive visits (four wins, one draw)
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
FC Barcelona (Expected line-up) 4-3-3
Porto – Barcelona Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 3 – 0 – 5
Eight European matches have taken place between the two teams so far and with five victories, FC Barcelona lead the direct comparison by a very clear margin. After the Portuguese won three of the first four meetings with the Catalans, the last four matches have all gone to the Blaugrana, who have not conceded a goal in three of those four victories.
Porto – Barcelona Tip
Generally, the betting odds on Porto against Barcelona swing in the direction of the Spanish champions, who have won all of their last four competitive games against the Dragões. However, the game in Portugal will not be a foregone conclusion for the Blaugrana, who have lost four of their last six away games in the Champions League group stage (two wins). However, Barca got much of the pent-up international furore off their chest in their brilliant 5-0 opening win.
In our eyes, there is a lot to be said for the FCB being able to set an early course for a return to the knockout phase of the top flight, which they have missed twice in a row, with another three-goal win. Consequently, our prediction for Porto against Barcelona is an away win for the Catalans
